⚠ Another $40 Billion This YearHigh threat

Oracle (ORCL) — threat to the moat

Oracle plans to raise $40 billion this year, and S&P expects a $42 billion cash deficit, so the plan has little room for error.

Oracle has told investors how it will pay for the next year. In June 2026 it said it expected to raise approximately $40 billion in fiscal 2027 through debt and equity, including its $20 billion at-the-market share programme, and that "Oracle does not expect to issue additional debt in calendar year 2026"1. The share programme was used in full in the first quarter2.

Fiscal 2027 funding need estimates ($bn)40Oracle planned raise-37.6Consensus free cash flow-42S&P free operating cash flowOracle Q4 FY2026 release; stockanalysis forecast; Investing.com on S&P, 9 July 2026
The plan and the deficit are about the same size.

The independent estimates are larger. S&P Global expected Oracle's fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow deficit to widen to negative $42 billion, nearly double its earlier projection3, on capital spending it estimated at $90 billion to $95 billion4. Consensus free cash flow for fiscal 2027 was about minus $37.6 billion5.

The risk is that the need for money outruns the plan. A company that commits to building capacity years ahead must raise the money on whatever terms are available when the bills arrive.

Capex will show whether the plan holds. If fiscal 2027 capital expenditure lands in S&P's $90 billion to $95 billion range against a $40 billion financing plan, the difference will have to come from customers, from asset-level financing or from new debt in 2027.

References
  1. ReportedIn June 2026 it said it expected to raise approximately $40 billion in fiscal 2027 through debt and equity, including its $20 billion at-the-market share programme, and that "Oracle does not expect to issue additional debt in calendar year 2026".
    Oracle fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financing, $75 billion of prepaid and customer-supplied hardware, Oracle Health and multicloud. — FY2026 · publ. 10 June 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe share programme was used in full in the first quarter.
    Oracle Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 - segments, leases not yet commenced, the ATM share programme, RPO timing and shares outstanding. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 11 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateS&P Global expected Oracle's fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow deficit to widen to negative $42 billion, nearly double its earlier projection, on capital spending it estimated at $90 billion to $95 billion.
    Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB-; S&P expects a negative $42 billion fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow and views OpenAI as roughly half of RPO. — July 2026 · publ. 9 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateS&P Global expected Oracle's fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow deficit to widen to negative $42 billion, nearly double its earlier projection, on capital spending it estimated at $90 billion to $95 billion.
    Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB-; S&P expects a negative $42 billion fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow and views OpenAI as roughly half of RPO. — July 2026 · publ. 9 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateConsensus free cash flow for fiscal 2027 was about minus $37.6 billion.
    Oracle analyst forecast - consensus revenue $90.48bn (FY2027) and $131.45bn (FY2028), EPS $8.14 and $11.00, free cash flow -$37.60bn (FY2027), average price target $237.97 (low $110, high $400). — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026