✦ $225 Billion by Fiscal 2030Thin moat

Oracle (ORCL) — the future bets

Oracle's $225 billion target needs revenue to grow 31% a year for five years, and almost all of it must come from the AI cloud.

1. ReportedOracle said in October 2025 that it was targeting $225 billion of revenue and $21 of adjusted earnings per share in fiscal 2030, which CNBC reported as a 31% compound annual growth rate.
   CNBC, Oracle confirms Meta cloud deal; fiscal 2030 targets of $225 billion revenue and $21 EPS; AI infrastructure margins and AI database targets. — October 2025 · publ. 16 October 2025 · source ↗
2. ReportedAnalysts polled by LSEG had been expecting $198.39 billion and $18.92.
   CNBC, Oracle confirms Meta cloud deal; fiscal 2030 targets of $225 billion revenue and $21 EPS; AI infrastructure margins and AI database targets. — October 2025 · publ. 16 October 2025 · source ↗
3. ReportedRevenue was $67,357 million in fiscal 2026, and Oracle guides to at least $90 billion in fiscal 2027.
   Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and segment note: revenue by line, segment margins, geography and remaining performance obligations. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
4. ReportedRevenue was $67,357 million in fiscal 2026, and Oracle guides to at least $90 billion in fiscal 2027.
   Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - commentary, bookings, capacity delivered and guidance. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
5. ReportedThe first quarter, $19,345 million, was about 21.5% of that guidance; Oracle's revenue is usually highest in the fourth quarter.
   Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - commentary, bookings, capacity delivered and guidance. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
6. Moat Explorer calcThe first quarter, $19,345 million, was about 21.5% of that guidance; Oracle's revenue is usually highest in the fourth quarter.
   Moat Explorer calculation from Oracle's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 May). Revenue lines: software support 19,804 / 19,365 - 1 = 2.3% (FY2022-FY2026); support share 19,804 / 67,357 = 29.4%; support Q1 FY2027 4,895 / 4,955 - 1 = -1.2%; licences FY2026 4,737 / 5,201 - 1 = -8.9%; licences Q1 FY2027 655 / 766 - 1 = -14.5%; licences FY2017 to FY2026 4,737 / 6,523 - 1 = -27.4%; fourth-quarter licences 1,881 / 4,737 = 39.7%. Software (licence plus support) FY2022 5,878 + 19,365 = 25,243; FY2023 5,779 + 19,426 = 25,205; FY2026 24,541 / 24,724 - 1 = -0.7%; software share 24,541 / 67,357 = 36.4%. Cloud infrastructure FY2026 18,101 / 10,234 - 1 = 76.9%; FY2024 to FY2026 18,101 / 6,840 = 2.6 times; share 18,101 / 67,357 = 26.9%; Q1 FY2027 share 7,388 / 19,345 = 38.2%; annual run rate 7,388 x 4 = 29,552. Cloud applications FY2025 14,272 / 12,934 - 1 = 10.3%; FY2026 15,888 / 14,272 - 1 = 11.3%; share 15,888 / 67,357 = 23.6%; trailing twelve months 15,888 - 3,839 + 4,219 = 16,268. Applications ecosystem revenue 18,172 / 16,651 - 1 = 9.1%; 19,383 / 18,172 - 1 = 6.7%. Hardware segment margin 2,017 / 3,084 = 65.4% (FY2026); 1,709 / 4,152 = 41.2% (FY2017); 1,903 / 3,443 = 55.3% (FY2020); 1,932 / 3,274 = 59.0% (FY2023); 452 / 774 = 58.4% (Q1 FY2027); hardware revenue 3,084 / 4,152 - 1 = -25.7%; 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%; share 3,084 / 67,357 = 4.6%. Services margin 1,533 / 5,743 = 26.7% (FY2026); 993 / 5,233 = 19.0% (FY2025); 698 / 3,359 = 20.8% (FY2017); 450 / 3,106 = 14.5% (FY2020); 1,104 / 5,594 = 19.7% (FY2023); 445 / 1,414 = 31.5% (Q1 FY2027); services growth 5,743 / 5,233 - 1 = 9.7%; share 5,743 / 67,357 = 8.5%; revenue per services employee 5,743 / 34,000 = about $169,000. Cloud and software segment margin 20,801 / 30,452 = 68.3% (FY2017); 23,169 / 34,101 = 67.9% (FY2021); 26,126 / 41,086 = 63.6% (FY2023); 28,514 / 44,464 = 64.1% (FY2024); 30,930 / 49,230 = 62.8% (FY2025); 34,468 / 58,530 = 58.9% (FY2026); 7,691 / 12,907 = 59.6% (Q1 FY2026); 9,358 / 17,157 = 54.5% (Q1 FY2027); segment expenses 16,850 / 8,783 - 1 = 91.8%; segment revenue 58,530 / 44,464 - 1 = 31.6%; Q1 segment revenue 17,157 / 12,907 - 1 = 32.9%. Revenue growth 67,357 / 57,399 - 1 = 17.3%; FY2022 to FY2026 67,357 / 42,440 - 1 = 58.7%; Cerner share of FY2023 revenue 5,900 / 49,954 = 11.8%. Research and development 10,272 / 5,524 = 1.9 times; 10,272 / 67,357 = 15.3%. Sales and marketing 8,274 / 52,961 = 15.6% (FY2024); 8,651 / 57,399 = 15.1% (FY2025); 8,331 / 67,357 = 12.4% (FY2026); 8,331 / 8,651 - 1 = -3.7%; revenue per dollar of selling 52,961 / 8,274 = 6.4 and 67,357 / 8,331 = 8.1. Operating margin 15,353 / 52,961 = 29.0%; 17,678 / 57,399 = 30.8%; 20,606 / 67,357 = 30.6%; before amortisation (15,353 + 3,010) / 52,961 = 34.7%, (17,678 + 2,307) / 57,399 = 34.8%, (20,606 + 1,671) / 67,357 = 33.1%; amortisation 1,671 / 67,357 = 2.5%; non-GAAP less GAAP operating income 28.9 - 20.6 = 8.3 bn. Headcount 162,000 - 141,000 = 21,000, 21,000 / 162,000 = 13%. Headcount against the fiscal 2023 peak 164,000 - 141,000 = 23,000. Hardware FY2015 to FY2026 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%. Amortisation Q1 420 - 202 = 218. Stock compensation plus restructuring FY2026 4,811 + 1,838 = 6,649. Americas 44,478 / 36,339 - 1 = 22.4%; Americas share 23,679 / 42,440 = 55.8% (FY2022), 33,122 / 52,961 = 62.5% (FY2024), 44,478 / 67,357 = 66.0% (FY2026), 13,711 / 19,345 = 70.9% (Q1 FY2027); Asia Pacific 7,582 / 6,750 - 1 = 12.3%; EMEA plus Asia Pacific Q1 FY2027 3,726 + 1,908 = 5,634. US long-lived assets 102,717 / 45,439 = 2.3 times. Free cash flow FY2025 20,821 - 21,215 = -394; FY2024 18,673 - 6,866 = 11,807. Capital expenditure share of revenue 6,866 / 52,961 = 13%; 21,215 / 57,399 = 37%; 55,663 / 67,357 = 83%; 28,499 / 19,345 = 147%. Property added 127,845 - 99,957 = 27,888. Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow excluding prepayments 23,103 - 11,363 = 11,740; prepayments share 11,363 / 23,103 = 49%; free cash flow excluding prepayments -5,396 - 11,363 = -16,759. Borrowings 130,105 / 87,202 - 1 = 49%; net debt May 2025 92,568 - 10,786 - 417 = 81,365; May 2026 129,541 - 31,289 - 605 = 97,647; August 2026 7,625 + 117,712 - 36,369 - 708 = 88,260. Interest 1,428 / 923 - 1 = 55%; interest over operating income 1,428 / 6,728 = 21%. Leases not yet commenced over borrowings 288 / 125.3 = 2.3 times; over total assets 288 / 303.3 = 95%. Depreciation 3,156 / 1,351 = 2.3 times. Diluted shares 3,000 / 2,823 - 1 = 6.3%, 3,000 - 2,823 = 177 million; Ellison 1,158.2 / 3,023.7 = 38.3%; pledged 346 / 1,158 = 30%. Remaining performance obligations: 664 / 138 = 4.8 times; 664 / 455 - 1 = 46%; next twelve months 12% x 638 = 77 bn and 13% x 664 = 86 bn; beyond 36 months 100% - 13% - 37% = 50%; quarterly increases 455 - 138 = 317, 523 - 455 = 68, 553 - 523 = 30, 638 - 553 = 85, 664 - 638 = 26. Targets: 225 / 67.357 = 3.3 times; 225 - 24.5 = about 200 bn; 144 / 18 = 8 times; 20 / 2.4 = 8.3 times; Q1 FY2027 revenue 19,345 / 90,000 = 21.5% of guidance. Other: total assets 303,259 - 261,759 = 41,500 in one quarter; revenue FY2026 against FY2023 67,357 / 49,954 - 1 = 34.8%; cloud infrastructure Q1 FY2027 over Q4 FY2026 7,388 - 5,787 = 1,601; quarterly steps 4,079 - 3,347 = 732, 4,888 - 4,079 = 809, 5,787 - 4,888 = 899; cloud applications share 3,839 / 14,926 = 25.7% (Q1 FY2026) and 4,219 / 19,345 = 21.8% (Q1 FY2027); dividends over support 5,787 / 19,804 = 29.2%; interest, research and dividends 4,599 + 10,272 + 5,787 = 20,658; support FY2015 to FY2026 19,804 - 18,847 = 957; US revenue share 39,835 / 67,357 = 59.1%. Trailing twelve months to August 2026: revenue 67,357 - 14,926 + 19,345 = 71,776; net income 17,087 - 2,927 + 4,760 = 18,920; diluted EPS 5.83 - 1.01 + 1.56 = 6.38; P/E 421,930 / 18,920 = 22.3; P/S 421,930 / 71,776 = 5.88 - revenue mix, regional shares and concentration. — FY2015-Q1 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Oracle's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
7. ReportedThe first quarter, $19,345 million, was about 21.5% of that guidance; Oracle's revenue is usually highest in the fourth quarter.
   Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1 business and executive officers: products, competitors, employees and seasonality. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
8. Third-party estimateAnalysts expect about $90.48 billion of revenue in fiscal 2027 and $131.45 billion in fiscal 2028, with earnings per share of $8.14 and $11.00.
   Oracle analyst forecast - consensus revenue $90.48bn (FY2027) and $131.45bn (FY2028), EPS $8.14 and $11.00, free cash flow -$37.60bn (FY2027), average price target $237.97 (low $110, high $400). — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
9. ReportedSoftware revenue was $24,541 million in fiscal 2026 and falling slightly; if it stays flat, the other lines must supply about $200 billion.
   Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and segment note: revenue by line, segment margins, geography and remaining performance obligations. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
10. Moat Explorer calcSoftware revenue was $24,541 million in fiscal 2026 and falling slightly; if it stays flat, the other lines must supply about $200 billion.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Oracle's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 May). Revenue lines: software support 19,804 / 19,365 - 1 = 2.3% (FY2022-FY2026); support share 19,804 / 67,357 = 29.4%; support Q1 FY2027 4,895 / 4,955 - 1 = -1.2%; licences FY2026 4,737 / 5,201 - 1 = -8.9%; licences Q1 FY2027 655 / 766 - 1 = -14.5%; licences FY2017 to FY2026 4,737 / 6,523 - 1 = -27.4%; fourth-quarter licences 1,881 / 4,737 = 39.7%. Software (licence plus support) FY2022 5,878 + 19,365 = 25,243; FY2023 5,779 + 19,426 = 25,205; FY2026 24,541 / 24,724 - 1 = -0.7%; software share 24,541 / 67,357 = 36.4%. Cloud infrastructure FY2026 18,101 / 10,234 - 1 = 76.9%; FY2024 to FY2026 18,101 / 6,840 = 2.6 times; share 18,101 / 67,357 = 26.9%; Q1 FY2027 share 7,388 / 19,345 = 38.2%; annual run rate 7,388 x 4 = 29,552. Cloud applications FY2025 14,272 / 12,934 - 1 = 10.3%; FY2026 15,888 / 14,272 - 1 = 11.3%; share 15,888 / 67,357 = 23.6%; trailing twelve months 15,888 - 3,839 + 4,219 = 16,268. Applications ecosystem revenue 18,172 / 16,651 - 1 = 9.1%; 19,383 / 18,172 - 1 = 6.7%. Hardware segment margin 2,017 / 3,084 = 65.4% (FY2026); 1,709 / 4,152 = 41.2% (FY2017); 1,903 / 3,443 = 55.3% (FY2020); 1,932 / 3,274 = 59.0% (FY2023); 452 / 774 = 58.4% (Q1 FY2027); hardware revenue 3,084 / 4,152 - 1 = -25.7%; 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%; share 3,084 / 67,357 = 4.6%. Services margin 1,533 / 5,743 = 26.7% (FY2026); 993 / 5,233 = 19.0% (FY2025); 698 / 3,359 = 20.8% (FY2017); 450 / 3,106 = 14.5% (FY2020); 1,104 / 5,594 = 19.7% (FY2023); 445 / 1,414 = 31.5% (Q1 FY2027); services growth 5,743 / 5,233 - 1 = 9.7%; share 5,743 / 67,357 = 8.5%; revenue per services employee 5,743 / 34,000 = about $169,000. Cloud and software segment margin 20,801 / 30,452 = 68.3% (FY2017); 23,169 / 34,101 = 67.9% (FY2021); 26,126 / 41,086 = 63.6% (FY2023); 28,514 / 44,464 = 64.1% (FY2024); 30,930 / 49,230 = 62.8% (FY2025); 34,468 / 58,530 = 58.9% (FY2026); 7,691 / 12,907 = 59.6% (Q1 FY2026); 9,358 / 17,157 = 54.5% (Q1 FY2027); segment expenses 16,850 / 8,783 - 1 = 91.8%; segment revenue 58,530 / 44,464 - 1 = 31.6%; Q1 segment revenue 17,157 / 12,907 - 1 = 32.9%. Revenue growth 67,357 / 57,399 - 1 = 17.3%; FY2022 to FY2026 67,357 / 42,440 - 1 = 58.7%; Cerner share of FY2023 revenue 5,900 / 49,954 = 11.8%. Research and development 10,272 / 5,524 = 1.9 times; 10,272 / 67,357 = 15.3%. Sales and marketing 8,274 / 52,961 = 15.6% (FY2024); 8,651 / 57,399 = 15.1% (FY2025); 8,331 / 67,357 = 12.4% (FY2026); 8,331 / 8,651 - 1 = -3.7%; revenue per dollar of selling 52,961 / 8,274 = 6.4 and 67,357 / 8,331 = 8.1. Operating margin 15,353 / 52,961 = 29.0%; 17,678 / 57,399 = 30.8%; 20,606 / 67,357 = 30.6%; before amortisation (15,353 + 3,010) / 52,961 = 34.7%, (17,678 + 2,307) / 57,399 = 34.8%, (20,606 + 1,671) / 67,357 = 33.1%; amortisation 1,671 / 67,357 = 2.5%; non-GAAP less GAAP operating income 28.9 - 20.6 = 8.3 bn. Headcount 162,000 - 141,000 = 21,000, 21,000 / 162,000 = 13%. Headcount against the fiscal 2023 peak 164,000 - 141,000 = 23,000. Hardware FY2015 to FY2026 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%. Amortisation Q1 420 - 202 = 218. Stock compensation plus restructuring FY2026 4,811 + 1,838 = 6,649. Americas 44,478 / 36,339 - 1 = 22.4%; Americas share 23,679 / 42,440 = 55.8% (FY2022), 33,122 / 52,961 = 62.5% (FY2024), 44,478 / 67,357 = 66.0% (FY2026), 13,711 / 19,345 = 70.9% (Q1 FY2027); Asia Pacific 7,582 / 6,750 - 1 = 12.3%; EMEA plus Asia Pacific Q1 FY2027 3,726 + 1,908 = 5,634. US long-lived assets 102,717 / 45,439 = 2.3 times. Free cash flow FY2025 20,821 - 21,215 = -394; FY2024 18,673 - 6,866 = 11,807. Capital expenditure share of revenue 6,866 / 52,961 = 13%; 21,215 / 57,399 = 37%; 55,663 / 67,357 = 83%; 28,499 / 19,345 = 147%. Property added 127,845 - 99,957 = 27,888. Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow excluding prepayments 23,103 - 11,363 = 11,740; prepayments share 11,363 / 23,103 = 49%; free cash flow excluding prepayments -5,396 - 11,363 = -16,759. Borrowings 130,105 / 87,202 - 1 = 49%; net debt May 2025 92,568 - 10,786 - 417 = 81,365; May 2026 129,541 - 31,289 - 605 = 97,647; August 2026 7,625 + 117,712 - 36,369 - 708 = 88,260. Interest 1,428 / 923 - 1 = 55%; interest over operating income 1,428 / 6,728 = 21%. Leases not yet commenced over borrowings 288 / 125.3 = 2.3 times; over total assets 288 / 303.3 = 95%. Depreciation 3,156 / 1,351 = 2.3 times. Diluted shares 3,000 / 2,823 - 1 = 6.3%, 3,000 - 2,823 = 177 million; Ellison 1,158.2 / 3,023.7 = 38.3%; pledged 346 / 1,158 = 30%. Remaining performance obligations: 664 / 138 = 4.8 times; 664 / 455 - 1 = 46%; next twelve months 12% x 638 = 77 bn and 13% x 664 = 86 bn; beyond 36 months 100% - 13% - 37% = 50%; quarterly increases 455 - 138 = 317, 523 - 455 = 68, 553 - 523 = 30, 638 - 553 = 85, 664 - 638 = 26. Targets: 225 / 67.357 = 3.3 times; 225 - 24.5 = about 200 bn; 144 / 18 = 8 times; 20 / 2.4 = 8.3 times; Q1 FY2027 revenue 19,345 / 90,000 = 21.5% of guidance. Other: total assets 303,259 - 261,759 = 41,500 in one quarter; revenue FY2026 against FY2023 67,357 / 49,954 - 1 = 34.8%; cloud infrastructure Q1 FY2027 over Q4 FY2026 7,388 - 5,787 = 1,601; quarterly steps 4,079 - 3,347 = 732, 4,888 - 4,079 = 809, 5,787 - 4,888 = 899; cloud applications share 3,839 / 14,926 = 25.7% (Q1 FY2026) and 4,219 / 19,345 = 21.8% (Q1 FY2027); dividends over support 5,787 / 19,804 = 29.2%; interest, research and dividends 4,599 + 10,272 + 5,787 = 20,658; support FY2015 to FY2026 19,804 - 18,847 = 957; US revenue share 39,835 / 67,357 = 59.1%. Trailing twelve months to August 2026: revenue 67,357 - 14,926 + 19,345 = 71,776; net income 17,087 - 2,927 + 4,760 = 18,920; diluted EPS 5.83 - 1.01 + 1.56 = 6.38; P/E 421,930 / 18,920 = 22.3; P/S 421,930 / 71,776 = 5.88 - growth rates, segment margins and line totals. — FY2015-Q1 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Oracle's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
11. ReportedOracle earned $5.83 a share on a GAAP basis in fiscal 2026 and $7.63 non-GAAP; reaching $21 needs the AI cloud to become far more profitable than its reported margins suggest, while the share count is rising.
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, borrowings, leases, equity and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
12. ReportedOracle earned $5.83 a share on a GAAP basis in fiscal 2026 and $7.63 non-GAAP; reaching $21 needs the AI cloud to become far more profitable than its reported margins suggest, while the share count is rising.
    Oracle fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financing, $75 billion of prepaid and customer-supplied hardware, Oracle Health and multicloud. — FY2026 · publ. 10 June 2026 · source ↗
13. ReportedDiluted shares were 3,000 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and the mandatory convertible preferred will add more when it converts.
    Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
14. ReportedDiluted shares were 3,000 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and the mandatory convertible preferred will add more when it converts.
    Oracle Form 8-K - 100,000,000 depositary shares of 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock. — February 2026 · publ. 5 February 2026 · source ↗
15. Third-party estimateConsensus at about $131 billion is the midpoint of the road to $225 billion; a year that falls well short of it would make the fiscal 2030 target a hope rather than a plan.
    Oracle analyst forecast - consensus revenue $90.48bn (FY2027) and $131.45bn (FY2028), EPS $8.14 and $11.00, free cash flow -$37.60bn (FY2027), average price target $237.97 (low $110, high $400). — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗

• Oracle Form 10-K, FY2026
• CNBC on Oracle's analyst meeting
• Oracle Q1 FY2027 results release