Major ClientsNarrow moat

Oracle (ORCL) — moat facet

No customer is a tenth of Oracle's revenue, but one is reportedly half of its backlog, and the backlog is where the revenue is going.

Oracle's customer list gives two opposite answers depending on which number you read. Revenue is spread widely: "No single customer accounted for 10% or more of our total revenues in fiscal 2026, 2025 or 2024"1. The backlog is not. S&P Global's view, reported in July 2026, was that OpenAI accounts for roughly half of Oracle's remaining performance obligations2.

Remaining performance obligations ($bn)98May 2024138May 2025455Aug 2025638May 2026664Aug 2026Oracle Q4 FY2024 to Q1 FY2027 results releases
Nearly five times in fifteen months.

Both are true because they measure different things. Revenue today comes mostly from hundreds of thousands of database, application and hardware customers who have paid for decades. The backlog, $664 billion at the end of August 20263, is mostly future AI cloud capacity, contracted by a handful of very large buyers and not yet delivered.

Oracle says as much in its risk factors: in certain OCI offerings "we are more concentrated among a number of large customers"4, and "some of our customers may be highly leveraged"5. Its economic returns, it says, are dependent on customer demand and "the ability of our key customers to meet their contractual obligations"6.

The old customer base is a strength; the new one is a concentration. As the backlog turns into revenue over the next five years, the revenue concentration will rise to meet the backlog concentration.

The shift is visible in Oracle's own language. Its principal financial officer told analysts in October 2025 that he had read many stories speculating that Oracle was "chasing revenue for revenue's sake" and rejected them7. The same month Oracle's co-chief executive stressed that $65 billion of new commitments came from four customers, none of them OpenAI8. A company whose revenue is spread across hundreds of thousands of customers does not usually need to say who its big customers are not.

The difference between the two measures will show up first in the revenue mix. Cloud was 48% of revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and 60% a year later9. As the large AI contracts begin, cloud infrastructure will become the majority of revenue, and the handful of customers behind it will become a majority of Oracle.

This is why the customer base is rated narrow and narrowing. The figure that will show the change first is the backlog itself: $664 billion, up 46% in a year1011. The day Oracle discloses a customer above 10% of revenue will be the day the two numbers meet.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Backlog concentration rising as AI contracts dominate RPO.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Remaining performance obligations, latest quarter
$664bn (Aug 2026), up $209bn year on year

Contracted future revenue, mostly AI capacity for a few buyers; growth that depends on one customer raises concentration.

Source: Oracle Q1 FY2027 results release ↗
Dig deeper
DIG DEEPER 01
No Customer Above Ten Percent of Revenue
Oracle's revenue is spread so widely that no customer reaches a tenth of it, which is what four decades of database customers look like.
DIG DEEPER 02
OpenAI: Roughly Half the Backlog
OpenAI is reportedly half of Oracle's $664 billion backlog, a single customer whose ability to pay will decide much of Oracle's next decade.
DIG DEEPER 03
Meta, Nvidia and the Other Large Buyers
Oracle has named Meta and Nvidia among its big buyers and says $65 billion came from customers other than OpenAI in a single month.
DIG DEEPER 04
The Customers Who Are Highly Leveraged
Oracle warns that some of its customers are highly leveraged, and its protection is making them pay for the equipment up front.
References
  1. ReportedRevenue is spread widely: "No single customer accounted for 10% or more of our total revenues in fiscal 2026, 2025 or 2024".
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1 business and executive officers: products, competitors, employees and seasonality. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateS&P Global's view, reported in July 2026, was that OpenAI accounts for roughly half of Oracle's remaining performance obligations.
    Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB-; S&P expects a negative $42 billion fiscal 2027 free operating cash flow and views OpenAI as roughly half of RPO. — July 2026 · publ. 9 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe backlog, $664 billion at the end of August 2026, is mostly future AI cloud capacity, contracted by a handful of very large buyers and not yet delivered.
    Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - revenue by line and region for the quarter. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedOracle says as much in its risk factors: in certain OCI offerings "we are more concentrated among a number of large customers", and "some of our customers may be highly leveraged".
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: customer concentration and credit, multicloud, lease terms, credit ratings, export rules. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedOracle says as much in its risk factors: in certain OCI offerings "we are more concentrated among a number of large customers", and "some of our customers may be highly leveraged".
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: customer concentration and credit, multicloud, lease terms, credit ratings, export rules. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIts economic returns, it says, are dependent on customer demand and "the ability of our key customers to meet their contractual obligations".
    Oracle Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 31 May 2026) - Item 1A risk factors: customer concentration and credit, multicloud, lease terms, credit ratings, export rules. — FY2026 · publ. 22 June 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIts principal financial officer told analysts in October 2025 that he had read many stories speculating that Oracle was "chasing revenue for revenue's sake" and rejected them.
    CNBC, Oracle confirms Meta cloud deal; fiscal 2030 targets of $225 billion revenue and $21 EPS; AI infrastructure margins and AI database targets. — October 2025 · publ. 16 October 2025 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe same month Oracle's co-chief executive stressed that $65 billion of new commitments came from four customers, none of them OpenAI.
    CNBC, Oracle confirms Meta cloud deal; fiscal 2030 targets of $225 billion revenue and $21 EPS; AI infrastructure margins and AI database targets. — October 2025 · publ. 16 October 2025 · source ↗
  9. ReportedCloud was 48% of revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and 60% a year later.
    Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - revenue by line and region for the quarter. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe figure that will show the change first is the backlog itself: $664 billion, up 46% in a year.
    Oracle first-quarter fiscal 2027 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with supplemental tables - income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet. — Q1 FY2027 · publ. 10 September 2026 · source ↗
  11. Moat Explorer calcThe figure that will show the change first is the backlog itself: $664 billion, up 46% in a year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Oracle's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end 31 May). Revenue lines: software support 19,804 / 19,365 - 1 = 2.3% (FY2022-FY2026); support share 19,804 / 67,357 = 29.4%; support Q1 FY2027 4,895 / 4,955 - 1 = -1.2%; licences FY2026 4,737 / 5,201 - 1 = -8.9%; licences Q1 FY2027 655 / 766 - 1 = -14.5%; licences FY2017 to FY2026 4,737 / 6,523 - 1 = -27.4%; fourth-quarter licences 1,881 / 4,737 = 39.7%. Software (licence plus support) FY2022 5,878 + 19,365 = 25,243; FY2023 5,779 + 19,426 = 25,205; FY2026 24,541 / 24,724 - 1 = -0.7%; software share 24,541 / 67,357 = 36.4%. Cloud infrastructure FY2026 18,101 / 10,234 - 1 = 76.9%; FY2024 to FY2026 18,101 / 6,840 = 2.6 times; share 18,101 / 67,357 = 26.9%; Q1 FY2027 share 7,388 / 19,345 = 38.2%; annual run rate 7,388 x 4 = 29,552. Cloud applications FY2025 14,272 / 12,934 - 1 = 10.3%; FY2026 15,888 / 14,272 - 1 = 11.3%; share 15,888 / 67,357 = 23.6%; trailing twelve months 15,888 - 3,839 + 4,219 = 16,268. Applications ecosystem revenue 18,172 / 16,651 - 1 = 9.1%; 19,383 / 18,172 - 1 = 6.7%. Hardware segment margin 2,017 / 3,084 = 65.4% (FY2026); 1,709 / 4,152 = 41.2% (FY2017); 1,903 / 3,443 = 55.3% (FY2020); 1,932 / 3,274 = 59.0% (FY2023); 452 / 774 = 58.4% (Q1 FY2027); hardware revenue 3,084 / 4,152 - 1 = -25.7%; 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%; share 3,084 / 67,357 = 4.6%. Services margin 1,533 / 5,743 = 26.7% (FY2026); 993 / 5,233 = 19.0% (FY2025); 698 / 3,359 = 20.8% (FY2017); 450 / 3,106 = 14.5% (FY2020); 1,104 / 5,594 = 19.7% (FY2023); 445 / 1,414 = 31.5% (Q1 FY2027); services growth 5,743 / 5,233 - 1 = 9.7%; share 5,743 / 67,357 = 8.5%; revenue per services employee 5,743 / 34,000 = about $169,000. Cloud and software segment margin 20,801 / 30,452 = 68.3% (FY2017); 23,169 / 34,101 = 67.9% (FY2021); 26,126 / 41,086 = 63.6% (FY2023); 28,514 / 44,464 = 64.1% (FY2024); 30,930 / 49,230 = 62.8% (FY2025); 34,468 / 58,530 = 58.9% (FY2026); 7,691 / 12,907 = 59.6% (Q1 FY2026); 9,358 / 17,157 = 54.5% (Q1 FY2027); segment expenses 16,850 / 8,783 - 1 = 91.8%; segment revenue 58,530 / 44,464 - 1 = 31.6%; Q1 segment revenue 17,157 / 12,907 - 1 = 32.9%. Revenue growth 67,357 / 57,399 - 1 = 17.3%; FY2022 to FY2026 67,357 / 42,440 - 1 = 58.7%; Cerner share of FY2023 revenue 5,900 / 49,954 = 11.8%. Research and development 10,272 / 5,524 = 1.9 times; 10,272 / 67,357 = 15.3%. Sales and marketing 8,274 / 52,961 = 15.6% (FY2024); 8,651 / 57,399 = 15.1% (FY2025); 8,331 / 67,357 = 12.4% (FY2026); 8,331 / 8,651 - 1 = -3.7%; revenue per dollar of selling 52,961 / 8,274 = 6.4 and 67,357 / 8,331 = 8.1. Operating margin 15,353 / 52,961 = 29.0%; 17,678 / 57,399 = 30.8%; 20,606 / 67,357 = 30.6%; before amortisation (15,353 + 3,010) / 52,961 = 34.7%, (17,678 + 2,307) / 57,399 = 34.8%, (20,606 + 1,671) / 67,357 = 33.1%; amortisation 1,671 / 67,357 = 2.5%; non-GAAP less GAAP operating income 28.9 - 20.6 = 8.3 bn. Headcount 162,000 - 141,000 = 21,000, 21,000 / 162,000 = 13%. Headcount against the fiscal 2023 peak 164,000 - 141,000 = 23,000. Hardware FY2015 to FY2026 3,084 / 5,205 - 1 = -40.7%. Amortisation Q1 420 - 202 = 218. Stock compensation plus restructuring FY2026 4,811 + 1,838 = 6,649. Americas 44,478 / 36,339 - 1 = 22.4%; Americas share 23,679 / 42,440 = 55.8% (FY2022), 33,122 / 52,961 = 62.5% (FY2024), 44,478 / 67,357 = 66.0% (FY2026), 13,711 / 19,345 = 70.9% (Q1 FY2027); Asia Pacific 7,582 / 6,750 - 1 = 12.3%; EMEA plus Asia Pacific Q1 FY2027 3,726 + 1,908 = 5,634. US long-lived assets 102,717 / 45,439 = 2.3 times. Free cash flow FY2025 20,821 - 21,215 = -394; FY2024 18,673 - 6,866 = 11,807. Capital expenditure share of revenue 6,866 / 52,961 = 13%; 21,215 / 57,399 = 37%; 55,663 / 67,357 = 83%; 28,499 / 19,345 = 147%. Property added 127,845 - 99,957 = 27,888. Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow excluding prepayments 23,103 - 11,363 = 11,740; prepayments share 11,363 / 23,103 = 49%; free cash flow excluding prepayments -5,396 - 11,363 = -16,759. Borrowings 130,105 / 87,202 - 1 = 49%; net debt May 2025 92,568 - 10,786 - 417 = 81,365; May 2026 129,541 - 31,289 - 605 = 97,647; August 2026 7,625 + 117,712 - 36,369 - 708 = 88,260. Interest 1,428 / 923 - 1 = 55%; interest over operating income 1,428 / 6,728 = 21%. Leases not yet commenced over borrowings 288 / 125.3 = 2.3 times; over total assets 288 / 303.3 = 95%. Depreciation 3,156 / 1,351 = 2.3 times. Diluted shares 3,000 / 2,823 - 1 = 6.3%, 3,000 - 2,823 = 177 million; Ellison 1,158.2 / 3,023.7 = 38.3%; pledged 346 / 1,158 = 30%. Remaining performance obligations: 664 / 138 = 4.8 times; 664 / 455 - 1 = 46%; next twelve months 12% x 638 = 77 bn and 13% x 664 = 86 bn; beyond 36 months 100% - 13% - 37% = 50%; quarterly increases 455 - 138 = 317, 523 - 455 = 68, 553 - 523 = 30, 638 - 553 = 85, 664 - 638 = 26. Targets: 225 / 67.357 = 3.3 times; 225 - 24.5 = about 200 bn; 144 / 18 = 8 times; 20 / 2.4 = 8.3 times; Q1 FY2027 revenue 19,345 / 90,000 = 21.5% of guidance. Other: total assets 303,259 - 261,759 = 41,500 in one quarter; revenue FY2026 against FY2023 67,357 / 49,954 - 1 = 34.8%; cloud infrastructure Q1 FY2027 over Q4 FY2026 7,388 - 5,787 = 1,601; quarterly steps 4,079 - 3,347 = 732, 4,888 - 4,079 = 809, 5,787 - 4,888 = 899; cloud applications share 3,839 / 14,926 = 25.7% (Q1 FY2026) and 4,219 / 19,345 = 21.8% (Q1 FY2027); dividends over support 5,787 / 19,804 = 29.2%; interest, research and dividends 4,599 + 10,272 + 5,787 = 20,658; support FY2015 to FY2026 19,804 - 18,847 = 957; US revenue share 39,835 / 67,357 = 59.1%. Trailing twelve months to August 2026: revenue 67,357 - 14,926 + 19,345 = 71,776; net income 17,087 - 2,927 + 4,760 = 18,920; diluted EPS 5.83 - 1.01 + 1.56 = 6.38; P/E 421,930 / 18,920 = 22.3; P/S 421,930 / 71,776 = 5.88 - cash flow, capital spending, debt, leases, shares and backlog. — FY2015-Q1 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Oracle's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026