Tokio Marine HoldingsNarrow moat

8766 — overall economic moat

Investment snapshot
Narrow moat↗ WideningConfidenceMediumValuationFair
Strongest advantageThe largest Japanese non-life franchise with a two-point underwriting edge, plus American specialists earning two-thirds of adjusted profit
Greatest threatPrice-fixing findings in Japan, ¥915 billion of unrealized bond losses in the life company and the end of equity-sale gains
Key metricIFRS adjusted ROE against the 14% plan target (12.9%)
Verdict: Tokio Marine is Japan's largest non-life insurer, but its growth has come from the American specialists it bought, which now earn two-thirds of its adjusted profit. The moat is narrow: underwriting skill in an oligopoly that regulators caught fixing prices, and niches abroad that rivals can enter. Berkshire's arrival and a ten-year reinsurance deal are a vote of confidence; the IFRS switch and the end of share-sale gains mean the next few years will show what the business earns on its own.
📈 8766 valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Tokio Marine Holdings is a Japanese insurance group whose non-life business was founded on 1 August 18791, and it now earns most of its profit in the United States. It operates in 57 countries and regions2. In the year to March 2026, under the Japanese accounting it has used until now, its ordinary income was ¥8,872.3 billion and net income ¥980.4 billion3; under IFRS, which it adopted that year, insurance revenue was ¥7,693.6 billion and net income ¥531.3 billion4.

IFRS adjusted net income, year to March 2026 (¥ bn)International — 65%Japan P&C — 26%Japan Life — 8%Solution — 2%Excludes other (-15.2); Tokio Marine results presentation, May 2026
America earns most of it.

The business has two halves. In Japan its non-life company, Tokio Marine & Nichido, is the largest single insurer with 27% of the market5, and it also has a life company. Abroad it owns American specialists, Philadelphia, HCC, Delphi and Pure, bought over two decades67. On the company's IFRS adjusted measure, international produced ¥578.5 billion of ¥881.5 billion in the latest year, Japanese P&C ¥234.7 billion and Japanese life ¥69.3 billion8.

The company is in the middle of three changes. It is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 20309, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums1011; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit12; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership1314.

The shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 2026, giving a market value of about ¥15.1 trillion1516, 16.90 times forward earnings17.

The group's history explains its shape. It launched Japan's first auto insurance in 1914, entered life insurance in 1996 and began its full-scale expansion overseas in 200018. Its overseas businesses employ about 35,000 locally hired staff, with 332 employees seconded from Japan19: the federated model in numbers.

The balance sheet is that of a large investor. Total assets were ¥33,002.7 billion under IFRS at March 2026 and equity attributable to shareholders ¥7,955.6 billion, ¥4,235.02 a share20. The group investment portfolio was ¥26.7 trillion21. Borrowings are small: bonds and borrowings of ¥598.0 billion22.

The moat is narrow: scale and underwriting skill in Japan, and specialist niches in America that it bought well. The number that would falsify the thesis is IFRS adjusted return on equity, 12.9% in the latest year against a plan target of 14% or higher2324; staying below it after the share sales end would say the franchise earns less than its reputation.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue, and where it comes from
¥8,872.3bn of ordinary income (JGAAP); IFRS insurance revenue ¥7,693.6bn

Two-thirds of adjusted profit comes from abroad. Watch IFRS adjusted ROE against the 14% target.

Source: Tokio Marine Japanese GAAP results, year to March 2026 ↗
Moat scorecardHow ratings work →
Switching costs5/10
Network effects3/10
Pricing power5/10
Hard to replicate6/10
Disruption resistance6/10
Overall durability6/10

Replication and disruption resistance score highest because the Japanese franchise took over a century to build and the American specialists depend on niche expertise that is slow to copy. Pricing power is moderate: the Japanese oligopoly priced rationally, too rationally for the regulators, and the specialists earn better margins than generalists. Switching costs come from agency relationships and specialist renewal rates. Network effects are limited. Durability is middling because a large catastrophe or credit loss can erase a year's profit.

Dig deeper
DIG DEEPER 01
The Revenue Lines
Under the old accounting Japan looked like Tokio Marine's biggest earner; strip out the share sales and America is.
DIG DEEPER 02
The Moat
Tokio Marine combined Japan's largest non-life franchise with American specialists it bought well, and its growth has come from the second.
DIG DEEPER 03
Competitors
Tokio Marine is the largest of three Japanese groups that were caught fixing prices, and has out-grown the global insurers.
DIG DEEPER 04
Major Clients
Tokio Marine's customers range from Japanese drivers to American niche businesses, and none is large enough to name.
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
The Future Bets
Tokio Marine wants to nearly double its profit by 2035, on a basis that no longer counts share sales.
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Japan Life's Underwater Bonds
Tokio Marine's life company sits on nearly a trillion yen of paper losses on its bonds.
⚠ THREAT 02
Priced on Earnings That Changed Their Definition
Tokio Marine's profit roughly halved when it changed accounting standards, and the market now has to price the smaller number.
◆ What the market may be missing
◆ THE VARIANT VIEW
What the Market Isn't Pricing In
Berkshire bought 2.49% of Tokio Marine and signed up to share its non-life risks for ten years.
◆ THE VARIANT VIEW
Inside the Latest Quarter (April-June 2026)
Tokio Marine's first IFRS quarter showed America growing and Japan hit by old liability policies.
References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine Holdings is a Japanese insurance group whose non-life business was founded on 1 August 1879, and it now earns most of its profit in the United States.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Integrated Report 2025 Supplement - founding date, network, employees and subsidiaries. — March 2025 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt operates in 57 countries and regions.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Integrated Report 2025 Supplement - founding date, network, employees and subsidiaries. — March 2025 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the year to March 2026, under the Japanese accounting it has used until now, its ordinary income was ¥8,872.3 billion and net income ¥980.4 billion; under IFRS, which it adopted that year, insurance revenue was ¥7,693.6 billion and net income ¥531.3 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (Japanese GAAP) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - ordinary income, net income, segment profit, dividends, cash flows and securities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 20 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the year to March 2026, under the Japanese accounting it has used until now, its ordinary income was ¥8,872.3 billion and net income ¥980.4 billion; under IFRS, which it adopted that year, insurance revenue was ¥7,693.6 billion and net income ¥531.3 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn Japan its non-life company, Tokio Marine & Nichido, is the largest single insurer with 27% of the market, and it also has a life company.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAbroad it owns American specialists, Philadelphia, HCC, Delphi and Pure, bought over two decades.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Integrated Report 2025 Supplement - founding date, network, employees and subsidiaries. — March 2025 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAbroad it owns American specialists, Philadelphia, HCC, Delphi and Pure, bought over two decades.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - international businesses, acquisitions and synergies. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOn the company's IFRS adjusted measure, international produced ¥578.5 billion of ¥881.5 billion in the latest year, Japanese P&C ¥234.7 billion and Japanese life ¥69.3 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedIt is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 2030, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIt is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 2030, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership.
    Japan Fair Trade Commission, 31 October 2024 - cease and desist orders and surcharge payment orders against non-life insurance companies for price-fixing. — October 2024 · publ. 31 October 2024 · source ↗
  11. ReportedIt is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 2030, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedIt is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 2030, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedIt is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 2030, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership.
    Reinsurance News - Berkshire Hathaway's NICO to acquire a 2.49% stake in Tokio Marine, with a comment from Ajit Jain. — March 2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedIt is selling all its strategic shareholdings in client companies by 2030, after Japan's regulators found the non-life insurers had fixed premiums; it has switched to IFRS, which removes the gains on those sales from profit; and in April 2026 Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity bought 2.49% and agreed a ten-year reinsurance partnership.
    Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 - NICO's quota-share reinsurance of Tokio Marine's net non-life premiums over a ten-year term from April 1, 2026. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThe shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 2026, giving a market value of about ¥15.1 trillion, 16.90 times forward earnings.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) market data - share price ¥7,932, 52-week range ¥5,300-8,468, analysts' target ¥8,653, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  16. Moat Explorer calcThe shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 2026, giving a market value of about ¥15.1 trillion, 16.90 times forward earnings.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  17. ReportedThe shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 2026, giving a market value of about ¥15.1 trillion, 16.90 times forward earnings.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) statistics - trailing P/E 28.90, forward P/E 16.90, price-to-book 1.87, dividend yield 3.09%, 52-week price change +26.43%. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  18. ReportedIt launched Japan's first auto insurance in 1914, entered life insurance in 1996 and began its full-scale expansion overseas in 2000.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  19. ReportedIts overseas businesses employ about 35,000 locally hired staff, with 332 employees seconded from Japan: the federated model in numbers.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Integrated Report 2025 Supplement - founding date, network, employees and subsidiaries. — March 2025 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  20. ReportedTotal assets were ¥33,002.7 billion under IFRS at March 2026 and equity attributable to shareholders ¥7,955.6 billion, ¥4,235.02 a share.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  21. ReportedThe group investment portfolio was ¥26.7 trillion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - capital, strategic equities, shareholder returns, the ten-year key statistics and the 2035 aspiration. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  22. ReportedBorrowings are small: bonds and borrowings of ¥598.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  23. ReportedThe number that would falsify the thesis is IFRS adjusted return on equity, 12.9% in the latest year against a plan target of 14% or higher; staying below it after the share sales end would say the franchise earns less than its reputation.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  24. ReportedThe number that would falsify the thesis is IFRS adjusted return on equity, 12.9% in the latest year against a plan target of 14% or higher; staying below it after the share sales end would say the franchise earns less than its reputation.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, IR conference FY2024 - the medium-term plan for FY2024-2026 and its targets. — FY2024-2026 · publ. May 2024 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026