⚠ A Fifth of Premiums to AgentsLow threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Nearly a third of Tokio Marine's Japanese premiums go on commissions and administration.

Tokio Marine & Nichido's agency commission ratio was 19.7% and its administrative expense ratio 11.7% in the latest year1: together nearly a third of premiums before any claim is paid.

Japan P&C expense ratios, year to March 2026 (%)19.7Agency commission11.7AdministrativeTokio Marine results presentation, May 2026
Distribution is the larger cost.

That expense base is the price of the agency moat, and it is a target for competitors that sell at lower cost. Tokio Marine also owns 97.9% of E. design Insurance2.

The regulatory changes may also shift business between channels as the close ties between insurers and business agencies are unwound3.

Tokio Marine & Nichido's total premiums were ¥2,596.3 billion in the latest year4, so a commission ratio of 19.7%5 means about ¥510 billion paid to agents6.

The measure is the expense ratio. A falling combined expense ratio would show the company controlling the cost of distribution.

References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's agency commission ratio was 19.7% and its administrative expense ratio 11.7% in the latest year: together nearly a third of premiums before any claim is paid.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTokio Marine also owns 97.9% of E. design Insurance.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Integrated Report 2025 Supplement - founding date, network, employees and subsidiaries. — March 2025 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe regulatory changes may also shift business between channels as the close ties between insurers and business agencies are unwound.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Business Strategy IR conference, May 2025 - progress on dissolving excessive-cooperation arrangements after the business improvement order. — 2024-2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's total premiums were ¥2,596.3 billion in the latest year, so a commission ratio of 19.7% means about ¥510 billion paid to agents.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's total premiums were ¥2,596.3 billion in the latest year, so a commission ratio of 19.7% means about ¥510 billion paid to agents.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcTokio Marine & Nichido's total premiums were ¥2,596.3 billion in the latest year, so a commission ratio of 19.7% means about ¥510 billion paid to agents.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026