Strategic Equities to ZeroNarrow moat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — moat facet

Tokio Marine has sold nearly half its client shareholdings in two years and plans to sell the rest by 2030.

The market value of Tokio Marine's strategic equities was ¥3,605.6 billion at March 2024 and ¥1,964.3 billion at March 20261, down about 45%2. They were 24.5% of IFRS net assets at March 20263. The company plans to sell ¥430.0 billion in the current year4 and sold ¥235.3 billion, with gains of ¥209.4 billion, in the first quarter alone5.

Strategic equity sales (¥ bn, years to March)117201710720201302023219202492220257462026Tokio Marine IR conference, May 2026
From about ¥110 billion a year to over ¥700 billion.

Sales on this scale in a rising Japanese stock market have produced large gains. They also reduce the company's sensitivity to Japanese share prices, which was one of its largest risks.

The strategic equity sales grew from about ¥107 billion a year for most of the 2010s to ¥922 billion in the year to March 20256.

Strategic equity sales ran at about ¥107-117 billion a year from the year to March 2017 to 20227. The regulatory orders turned a slow unwinding into a rapid one.

The measure is the remaining balance. Reaching the ¥1,534.3 billion planned for March 20278 keeps the target of zero by 2030 on track.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Sales ahead of plan in the first quarter.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Strategic equity sales, April-June 2026
¥235.3bn (gains ¥209.4bn) against a ¥430.0bn full-year plan

The pace of the unwinding.

Source: Tokio Marine first-quarter overview, August 2026 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Selling Shares Clients Care About
Tokio Marine is selling the shares that used to keep its corporate clients loyal.
References
  1. ReportedThe market value of Tokio Marine's strategic equities was ¥3,605.6 billion at March 2024 and ¥1,964.3 billion at March 2026, down about 45%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcThe market value of Tokio Marine's strategic equities was ¥3,605.6 billion at March 2024 and ¥1,964.3 billion at March 2026, down about 45%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedThey were 24.5% of IFRS net assets at March 2026.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe company plans to sell ¥430.0 billion in the current year and sold ¥235.3 billion, with gains of ¥209.4 billion, in the first quarter alone.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe company plans to sell ¥430.0 billion in the current year and sold ¥235.3 billion, with gains of ¥209.4 billion, in the first quarter alone.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, overview of first-quarter FY2026 results - progress against the plan, large losses, the Middle East, strategic equity sales and natural catastrophes. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe strategic equity sales grew from about ¥107 billion a year for most of the 2010s to ¥922 billion in the year to March 2025.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - capital, strategic equities, shareholder returns, the ten-year key statistics and the 2035 aspiration. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedStrategic equity sales ran at about ¥107-117 billion a year from the year to March 2017 to 2022.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedReaching the ¥1,534.3 billion planned for March 2027 keeps the target of zero by 2030 on track.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026