✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — the future bets

Tokio Marine wants to nearly double its profit by 2035, on a basis that no longer counts share sales.

Tokio Marine's guidance for the year to March 2027, on the IFRS basis, is net income of ¥830.0 billion and adjusted net income of ¥950.0 billion, up 7.8%, with adjusted earnings per share of ¥5141. It plans an adjusted return on equity of 13.0%2, a dividend of ¥2453 and buybacks of ¥400.0 billion4. After the first quarter the forecast was unchanged5, with 28% of adjusted net income achieved6.

IFRS adjusted net income (¥ bn, years to March)812.02025881.52026950.02027 guidance1,700+2035 aspirationTokio Marine results presentation and IR conference, May 2026
A long way to 2035.

By segment, the plan is international ¥634.0 billion, Japan ¥305.0 billion, of which P&C ¥223.0 billion and life ¥82.0 billion, and solution ¥17.0 billion7.

The company's aspiration for 2035 is adjusted net income of ¥1,700 billion or more and adjusted ROE of 17% or more, a compound growth rate of 7% or more8.

Four bets carry it: a possible large acquisition, reported in August 2026 as Suncorp9; the partnership with Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity, including a ten-year reinsurance agreement10; the Japan life business after its block reinsurance; and continued growth in the American specialists.

The company also expects total business volume of ¥9,532.0 billion in the current year, up 8%11, and budgets ¥200.0 billion for natural catastrophes12. A weaker yen helps: each yen of depreciation against the dollar adds about ¥2.0 billion to adjusted net income13.

The measure is IFRS adjusted net income against the ¥950.0 billion guidance. It is the first year on the basis that excludes equity-sale gains, and the one on which the 2035 aspiration will be judged.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Guided growth of 8% and a larger deal reported.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
IFRS adjusted net income guidance, year to March 2027
¥950.0bn, up 7.8%

The first year on the new basis; 28% achieved in the first quarter.

Source: Tokio Marine results, April-June 2026 ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Suncorp and Australia
Tokio Marine may make its largest acquisition yet, in Australia, where its last big problem arose.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
The Berkshire Partnership
Berkshire will share a slice of Tokio Marine's non-life risks for ten years, and help it buy things.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
Japan Life After the Block Reinsurance
Tokio Marine's Japanese life business reinsured part of its book and carries ¥1.15 trillion of future profit.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Aspiration 2035
Tokio Marine's 2035 goal needs 7% growth a year, and its recent pace on the new basis has been slower.
References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine's guidance for the year to March 2027, on the IFRS basis, is net income of ¥830.0 billion and adjusted net income of ¥950.0 billion, up 7.8%, with adjusted earnings per share of ¥514.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, adjusted net income by segment and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt plans an adjusted return on equity of 13.0%, a dividend of ¥245 and buybacks of ¥400.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt plans an adjusted return on equity of 13.0%, a dividend of ¥245 and buybacks of ¥400.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt plans an adjusted return on equity of 13.0%, a dividend of ¥245 and buybacks of ¥400.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAfter the first quarter the forecast was unchanged, with 28% of adjusted net income achieved.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, adjusted net income by segment and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAfter the first quarter the forecast was unchanged, with 28% of adjusted net income achieved.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, overview of first-quarter FY2026 results - progress against the plan, large losses, the Middle East, strategic equity sales and natural catastrophes. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedBy segment, the plan is international ¥634.0 billion, Japan ¥305.0 billion, of which P&C ¥223.0 billion and life ¥82.0 billion, and solution ¥17.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe company's aspiration for 2035 is adjusted net income of ¥1,700 billion or more and adjusted ROE of 17% or more, a compound growth rate of 7% or more.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - capital, strategic equities, shareholder returns, the ten-year key statistics and the 2035 aspiration. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedFour bets carry it: a possible large acquisition, reported in August 2026 as Suncorp; the partnership with Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity, including a ten-year reinsurance agreement; the Japan life business after its block reinsurance; and continued growth in the American specialists.
    Insurance Journal (Reuters), 25 August 2026 - Suncorp emerges as Tokio Marine's preferred takeover target after IAG and Intact were reviewed. — August 2026 · publ. 25 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedFour bets carry it: a possible large acquisition, reported in August 2026 as Suncorp; the partnership with Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity, including a ten-year reinsurance agreement; the Japan life business after its block reinsurance; and continued growth in the American specialists.
    Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 - NICO's quota-share reinsurance of Tokio Marine's net non-life premiums over a ten-year term from April 1, 2026. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe company also expects total business volume of ¥9,532.0 billion in the current year, up 8%, and budgets ¥200.0 billion for natural catastrophes.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe company also expects total business volume of ¥9,532.0 billion in the current year, up 8%, and budgets ¥200.0 billion for natural catastrophes.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedA weaker yen helps: each yen of depreciation against the dollar adds about ¥2.0 billion to adjusted net income.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026