⚠ An Underwriting Loss in 2019Moderate threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Two bad typhoon years took Tokio Marine's Japanese profit from ¥168 billion to ¥19 billion.

In the year to March 2019 Tokio Marine & Nichido's combined ratio was 102.2%1: it paid out more in claims and expenses than it collected in premiums. The following year it was 98.7%2. Japanese P&C business-unit profit fell to ¥18.9 billion and ¥25.9 billion in those years, from ¥167.6 billion in the year to March 20173.

Japan P&C business-unit profit (¥ bn, years to March)167.6201718.9201925.92020216.72022171.22026Tokio Marine IR conference, May 2026
A collapse in the catastrophe years.

Those were years of large typhoons and floods in Japan. A non-life insurer's advantage in ordinary years can disappear in a bad catastrophe year, and Japan is exposed to typhoons, floods and earthquakes.

The company budgets ¥200.0 billion before tax for natural catastrophes in the current year, ¥105.0 billion in Japan4.

The recovery took three years. Japanese P&C business-unit profit returned to ¥127.9 billion in the year to March 2021 and ¥216.7 billion in 20225, a sign that the pricing changes after the catastrophe years worked.

The measure is the combined ratio in the next heavy catastrophe year. Staying below 100% would show the pricing and reinsurance changes since 2019 working.

References
  1. ReportedIn the year to March 2019 Tokio Marine & Nichido's combined ratio was 102.2%: it paid out more in claims and expenses than it collected in premiums.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe following year it was 98.7%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedJapanese P&C business-unit profit fell to ¥18.9 billion and ¥25.9 billion in those years, from ¥167.6 billion in the year to March 2017.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe company budgets ¥200.0 billion before tax for natural catastrophes in the current year, ¥105.0 billion in Japan.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedJapanese P&C business-unit profit returned to ¥127.9 billion in the year to March 2021 and ¥216.7 billion in 2022, a sign that the pricing changes after the catastrophe years worked.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026