⚠ A Stock Market FallLow threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Tokio Marine's capital still moves with the Japanese stock market until its client shares are sold.

Tokio Marine's economic solvency ratio moves with Japanese share prices, because it still holds ¥1,964.3 billion of strategic equities1. The company's response to a large fall would be to accelerate sales2.

Regulatory solvency margin ratio (%)590.8Mar 2025689.9Dec 2025Tokio Marine solvency disclosure, March 2026
The regulatory measure rose.

The ratio fell from 297% in September 2025 to 268% in March 202634, partly because of acquisitions and buybacks.

As the equities are sold, the sensitivity falls. Until then, a sharp market fall would reduce the room for deals and returns.

The company publishes its sensitivities to share prices, interest rates, credit spreads and currencies5. Its response to a sharp fall in Japanese shares would be to sell its strategic equities faster6, which it is already doing.

The measure is the ESR at each half-year. Staying above 250% would leave room for both.

References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine's economic solvency ratio moves with Japanese share prices, because it still holds ¥1,964.3 billion of strategic equities.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe company's response to a large fall would be to accelerate sales.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe ratio fell from 297% in September 2025 to 268% in March 2026, partly because of acquisitions and buybacks.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - capital, strategic equities, shareholder returns, the ten-year key statistics and the 2035 aspiration. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe ratio fell from 297% in September 2025 to 268% in March 2026, partly because of acquisitions and buybacks.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe company publishes its sensitivities to share prices, interest rates, credit spreads and currencies.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIts response to a sharp fall in Japanese shares would be to sell its strategic equities faster, which it is already doing.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026