⚠ Marketing Buys the GrowthLow threat

American Express (AXP) — threat to the moat

American Express spends about $500 of marketing for every new card, and the fee has to repay that before it becomes profit.

The fee revenue is not free to acquire. American Express spent $5,291 million on marketing in 2021, $5,458 million in 2022, $5,213 million in 2023, $6,040 million in 2024 and $6,252 million in 202512. In the second quarter of 2026 it spent $1,650 million3.

Marketing expense ($M)5,29120215,45820225,21320236,04020246,2522025American Express Forms 10-K FY2023 and FY2025
About $6 billion a year to keep the membership growing.

The company says why. The 2025 increase came "primarily due to higher levels of spending on customer acquisition and brand advertising"4. On the second-quarter call it said revenue ahead of plan would fund card acquisition and technology rather than higher earnings5.

Measured against results, the spending has worked. New proprietary cards were 12.5 million in 20256, and marketing came to about $500 per new card7 if all of it were counted against acquisition. Net card fees rose by $1,544 million in the same year89.

The risk is that the marketing becomes the moat. A fee business that must spend six billion dollars a year to replace and add customers is less durable than one where customers arrive on their own, and a rival with a deeper balance sheet can match advertising more easily than it can match a network.

Marketing also competes with the other uses of money. Every dollar spent on acquisition is a dollar not returned to shareholders, and Amex has returned about $7.6 billion a year10.

Marketing also competes with the rewards bill for the same purpose. Both are spent to win and keep cardholders; one arrives before the card is issued and the other after. In 2025 marketing of $6,252 million and the three incentive lines of $30,923 million together came to about $37.2 billion1112, nearly all of the $37,401 million of discount revenue.

The ratio to follow is marketing against the growth in card fees. In 2025 Amex spent about four dollars of marketing for each dollar of added fee revenue13; if that rose toward six while acquisitions stayed near 12 million, the customers would be costing more to find than they used to.

References
  1. ReportedAmerican Express spent $5,291 million on marketing in 2021, $5,458 million in 2022, $5,213 million in 2023, $6,040 million in 2024 and $6,252 million in 2025.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - income statements for 2021-2023 on the current presentation, segment results for 2022, discount revenue as a share of billed business. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAmerican Express spent $5,291 million on marketing in 2021, $5,458 million in 2022, $5,213 million in 2023, $6,040 million in 2024 and $6,252 million in 2025.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - card metrics: billed business, spending per card, cards-in-force, fees per card and network volumes. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 it spent $1,650 million.
    American Express second-quarter 2026 statistical supplement, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - segment results, card metrics, capital and credit - consolidated results, card metrics, capital and credit. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe 2025 increase came "primarily due to higher levels of spending on customer acquisition and brand advertising".
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - card metrics: billed business, spending per card, cards-in-force, fees per card and network volumes. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateOn the second-quarter call it said revenue ahead of plan would fund card acquisition and technology rather than higher earnings.
    American Express second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (third-party transcript). — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedNew proprietary cards were 12.5 million in 2025, and marketing came to about $500 per new card if all of it were counted against acquisition.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - card metrics: billed business, spending per card, cards-in-force, fees per card and network volumes. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcNew proprietary cards were 12.5 million in 2025, and marketing came to about $500 per new card if all of it were counted against acquisition.
    Moat Explorer calculation from American Express's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Incentives (variable customer engagement costs = Card Member rewards + business development + Card Member services): 2021 11,007 + 3,762 + 1,993 = 16,762; 2022 14,002 + 4,943 + 2,959 = 21,904; 2023 15,367 + 5,657 + 3,968 = 24,992; 2024 16,599 + 5,886 + 4,782 = 27,267; 2025 18,409 + 6,457 + 6,057 = 30,923; Q2 2026 5,051 + 1,755 + 1,949 = 8,755; Q2 2025 7,508. As a share of discount revenue: 16,762 / 24,563 = 68.2%; 21,904 / 30,739 = 71.3%; 24,992 / 33,416 = 74.8%; 27,267 / 35,192 = 77.5%; 30,923 / 37,401 = 82.7%; Q2 2026 8,755 / 10,163 = 86.1%; Q2 2025 7,508 / 9,361 = 80.2%. Discount revenue left after incentives: 24,563 - 16,762 = 7,801; 30,739 - 21,904 = 8,835; 33,416 - 24,992 = 8,424; 35,192 - 27,267 = 7,925; 37,401 - 30,923 = 6,478; Q2 2026 10,163 - 8,755 = 1,408; Q2 2025 9,361 - 7,508 = 1,853. Incentives / total revenue 16,762 / 42,380 = 39.6%; 30,923 / 72,229 = 42.8%. Incentive growth 30,923 / 16,762 - 1 = 84%; 30,923 / 27,267 - 1 = 13.4%. Discount revenue growth 37,401 / 24,563 - 1 = 52%; 37,401 / 35,192 - 1 = 6.3%. Rewards 18,409 / 11,007 - 1 = 67%; rewards / discount revenue 11,007 / 24,563 = 44.8%; 14,002 / 30,739 = 45.6%; 15,367 / 33,416 = 46.0%; 16,599 / 35,192 = 47.2%; 18,409 / 37,401 = 49.2%. Business development 6,457 / 3,762 - 1 = 72%; / discount revenue 3,762 / 24,563 = 15.3%, 6,457 / 37,401 = 17.3%. Card Member services 6,057 / 1,993 = 3.04 times (+204%); 6,057 / 1,392 = 4.35; growth 3,968 / 2,959 - 1 = 34.1%; 4,782 / 3,968 - 1 = 20.5%; 6,057 / 4,782 - 1 = 26.7%; 6,057 / 2,959 = 2.05. Card Member services / net card fees 1,993 / 5,195 = 38%; 3,968 / 7,255 = 55%; 6,057 / 9,993 = 61%; Q2 2026 1,949 / 2,862 = 68%. Membership Rewards liability 16.5 billion / equity 33,474 = 49%; URR +1 point = 4 x 229 = 916. Card fees: 9,993 / 4,042 = 2.47 (+147%); 9,993 / 5,195 - 1 = 92%; growth 6,070 / 5,195 - 1 = 16.8%, 7,255 / 6,070 - 1 = 19.5%, 8,449 / 7,255 - 1 = 16.5%, 9,993 / 8,449 - 1 = 18.3%; added 9,993 - 8,449 = 1,544. Share of revenue 4,042 / 43,556 = 9.3%; 5,195 / 42,380 = 12.3%; 7,255 / 60,515 = 12.0%; 9,993 / 72,229 = 13.8%. Average fee per card 131 / 58 = 2.26; 117 / 103 - 1 = 14%. Proprietary cards 86.6 / 70.3 - 1 = 23%. Marketing 6,252 / 12.5 million new cards = about $500; 6,252 / 1,544 = 4.0. Card fees plus net interest income (9,993 + 17,364) / 72,229 = 38%. Spending per card 23,496 / 20,392 - 1 = 15.2%; 24,059 / 23,496 - 1 = 2.4%; 24,608 / 24,059 - 1 = 2.3%; 25,453 / 24,608 - 1 = 3.4%. Billed business 1,669.8 / 1,070.5 - 1 = 56%; 1,669.8 / 1,550.9 - 1 = 7.7%; 870.7 / 1,070.5 - 1 = -18.7%. Network volumes 1,897.0 / 1,265.7 - 1 = 50%; 1,897.0 - 1,669.8 = 227.2. Merchant rate 2.51% - 2.24% = 0.27 points x 1,669.8 billion = about 4.5 billion; 4.5 / 37.4 = 12%. Pretax income 13,795 - 10,689 = 3,106. Revenue mix 2019: discount 26,167 / 43,556 = 60.1%; net interest income 8,620 / 43,556 = 19.8%; 2025: 37,401 / 72,229 = 51.8%; 17,364 / 72,229 = 24.0%. Net interest income 17,364 / 7,750 = 2.24; 17,364 / 8,620 - 1 = 101%; +100bp +19 / 17,364 = 0.1%. Card Member loans 151,832 / 87,400 - 1 = 74%. Held for sale 2,457 / 151,832 = 1.6%. Revenue 2020 36,087 / 43,556 - 1 = -17%. Deposits 152,488 / 210,300 = 72.5%; 156,973 / 152,488 - 1 = 2.9%. Delta: 13% x 1,669.8 = 217 billion; 8.2 billion / net income 10,833 = 76%; 8.2 / net card fees 9,993 = 82%; 8.2 / 7.4 - 1 = 11%. Other cobrands 26% - 13% = 13% x 1,669.8 = 217; proprietary 74% x 1,669.8 = 1,236. Valuation: market value 206.30 / 254.84 - 1 = -19%; P/E 206.30 / trailing net income 11.446 = 18.0; P/S 206.30 / 75.95 = 2.72; end-2025 254.84 / 10.833 = 23.5; end-2015 68.45 / 5.163 = 13.3; earnings yield 1 / 23.5 = 4.3%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 72,229 + 38,544 - 34,823 = 75,950; net income 10,833 + 6,082 - 5,469 = 11,446; EPS 15.38 + 8.81 - 7.71 = 16.48. Diluted shares 696 / 1,003 - 1 = -30.6%. Net income 10,833 / 5,163 = 2.10; EPS 15.38 / 5.05 = 3.05. Berkshire 151.61 million / 675 million = 22.5%; 13F shares 1,149,942 + 149,061,045 + 1,399,713 = 151,610,700, value 388,967,882 + 50,419,898,471 + 473,452,922 = $51.28 billion (30 June 2026). Card balances consumer 144,974 / 218,054 = 66%. Card fees / discount revenue 9,993 / 37,401 = 27% (2025), 4,042 / 26,167 = 15% (2019). Marketing plus incentives 6,252 + 30,923 = 37,175. Provisions / net interest income 5,256 / 17,364 = 30%. Card Member loans growth 139,674 / 125,995 - 1 = 11%; 151,832 / 139,674 - 1 = 9%; billed business 1,550.9 / 1,459.6 - 1 = 6%. Price to book 305.50 / 48.42 = 6.3. Receivables 62,031 / (151,832 + 62,031) = 29%. GMNS Q2 2026 pretax 1,128 / 1,054 - 1 = 7%. Dividend yield 3.80 / 305.50 = 1.2%. Discount revenue at the 2013 rate 2.51% x 1,669.8 = 41.9 billion; each basis point of rate 0.0001 x 1,669.8 billion = 167 million (5bp 835, 10bp 1,670). Merchant locations at the start of 2026 about 190 - 20 = 170 million. Card Member services growth 2021-2025 +204% against net card fees +92%. A 2020-sized fall today: 18.7% x 1,669.8 = about 312 billion. Revenue outside the United States (7,073 + 5,218 + 4,194) / 72,229 = 23%. 2026 revenue guidance 72,229 x 1.10 = 79,452. Segments (2025, $ millions): revenue 34,814 + 16,926 + 13,000 + 7,759 = 72,499; less Corporate and Other 270 = 72,229. Shares of segment revenue: USCS 34,814 / 72,499 = 48.0%; CS 23.3%; ICS 17.9%; GMNS 10.7%. Pretax income 6,810 + 3,668 + 1,603 + 3,968 = 16,049; shares USCS 42.4%, CS 22.9%, ICS 10.0%, GMNS 24.7%. Pretax margins: USCS 6,810 / 34,814 = 19.6% (2020 3,103 / 16,347 = 19.0%; 2021 5,958 / 18,922 = 31.5%; 2022 5,400 / 23,914 = 22.6%; 2023 5,433 / 28,116 = 19.3%; 2024 6,377 / 31,427 = 20.3%); CS 3,668 / 16,926 = 21.7% (2020 1,013 / 9,234 = 11.0%); ICS 1,603 / 13,000 = 12.3% (2020 521 / 6,742 = 7.7%; 2021 929 / 7,435 = 12.5%; 2022 578 / 9,061 = 6.4%; 2023 973 / 10,430 = 9.3%; 2024 1,031 / 11,461 = 9.0%); GMNS 3,968 / 7,759 = 51.1% (2020 1,294 / 4,309 = 30.0%; 2021 1,874 / 5,129 = 36.5%; 2022 2,954 / 6,475 = 45.6%; 2023 3,656 / 7,396 = 49.4%). ICS pretax 1,603 / 1,031 - 1 = 55%. GMNS 2024 excluding the Accertify gain 4,398 - 531 = 3,867; 3,968 / 3,867 - 1 = 2.6%. Revenue 2020 to 2025: USCS 34,814 / 16,347 = 2.13; CS 16,926 / 9,234 = 1.83; ICS 13,000 / 6,742 = 1.93; GMNS 7,759 / 4,309 = 1.80. 2020 segment total 16,347 + 9,234 + 6,742 + 4,309 = 36,632; USCS share 16,347 / 36,632 = 44.6%. USCS Q2 2026 pretax 2,065 / 1,676 - 1 = 23%. Regions 2025: pretax 13,054 + 1,255 + 831 + 907 = 16,047; United States 13,054 / 16,047 = 81%; 13,054 / consolidated 13,795 = 95%; outside the United States (1,255 + 831 + 907) / 16,047 = 19%; revenue 56,015 / 72,229 = 78% - card fees, spending, lending, funding, valuation, Delta and per-share arithmetic. — 2013-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in American Express's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and statistical supplements, Delta Air Lines' Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  8. ReportedNet card fees rose by $1,544 million in the same year.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - income statement, business description and management. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcNet card fees rose by $1,544 million in the same year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from American Express's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Incentives (variable customer engagement costs = Card Member rewards + business development + Card Member services): 2021 11,007 + 3,762 + 1,993 = 16,762; 2022 14,002 + 4,943 + 2,959 = 21,904; 2023 15,367 + 5,657 + 3,968 = 24,992; 2024 16,599 + 5,886 + 4,782 = 27,267; 2025 18,409 + 6,457 + 6,057 = 30,923; Q2 2026 5,051 + 1,755 + 1,949 = 8,755; Q2 2025 7,508. As a share of discount revenue: 16,762 / 24,563 = 68.2%; 21,904 / 30,739 = 71.3%; 24,992 / 33,416 = 74.8%; 27,267 / 35,192 = 77.5%; 30,923 / 37,401 = 82.7%; Q2 2026 8,755 / 10,163 = 86.1%; Q2 2025 7,508 / 9,361 = 80.2%. Discount revenue left after incentives: 24,563 - 16,762 = 7,801; 30,739 - 21,904 = 8,835; 33,416 - 24,992 = 8,424; 35,192 - 27,267 = 7,925; 37,401 - 30,923 = 6,478; Q2 2026 10,163 - 8,755 = 1,408; Q2 2025 9,361 - 7,508 = 1,853. Incentives / total revenue 16,762 / 42,380 = 39.6%; 30,923 / 72,229 = 42.8%. Incentive growth 30,923 / 16,762 - 1 = 84%; 30,923 / 27,267 - 1 = 13.4%. Discount revenue growth 37,401 / 24,563 - 1 = 52%; 37,401 / 35,192 - 1 = 6.3%. Rewards 18,409 / 11,007 - 1 = 67%; rewards / discount revenue 11,007 / 24,563 = 44.8%; 14,002 / 30,739 = 45.6%; 15,367 / 33,416 = 46.0%; 16,599 / 35,192 = 47.2%; 18,409 / 37,401 = 49.2%. Business development 6,457 / 3,762 - 1 = 72%; / discount revenue 3,762 / 24,563 = 15.3%, 6,457 / 37,401 = 17.3%. Card Member services 6,057 / 1,993 = 3.04 times (+204%); 6,057 / 1,392 = 4.35; growth 3,968 / 2,959 - 1 = 34.1%; 4,782 / 3,968 - 1 = 20.5%; 6,057 / 4,782 - 1 = 26.7%; 6,057 / 2,959 = 2.05. Card Member services / net card fees 1,993 / 5,195 = 38%; 3,968 / 7,255 = 55%; 6,057 / 9,993 = 61%; Q2 2026 1,949 / 2,862 = 68%. Membership Rewards liability 16.5 billion / equity 33,474 = 49%; URR +1 point = 4 x 229 = 916. Card fees: 9,993 / 4,042 = 2.47 (+147%); 9,993 / 5,195 - 1 = 92%; growth 6,070 / 5,195 - 1 = 16.8%, 7,255 / 6,070 - 1 = 19.5%, 8,449 / 7,255 - 1 = 16.5%, 9,993 / 8,449 - 1 = 18.3%; added 9,993 - 8,449 = 1,544. Share of revenue 4,042 / 43,556 = 9.3%; 5,195 / 42,380 = 12.3%; 7,255 / 60,515 = 12.0%; 9,993 / 72,229 = 13.8%. Average fee per card 131 / 58 = 2.26; 117 / 103 - 1 = 14%. Proprietary cards 86.6 / 70.3 - 1 = 23%. Marketing 6,252 / 12.5 million new cards = about $500; 6,252 / 1,544 = 4.0. Card fees plus net interest income (9,993 + 17,364) / 72,229 = 38%. Spending per card 23,496 / 20,392 - 1 = 15.2%; 24,059 / 23,496 - 1 = 2.4%; 24,608 / 24,059 - 1 = 2.3%; 25,453 / 24,608 - 1 = 3.4%. Billed business 1,669.8 / 1,070.5 - 1 = 56%; 1,669.8 / 1,550.9 - 1 = 7.7%; 870.7 / 1,070.5 - 1 = -18.7%. Network volumes 1,897.0 / 1,265.7 - 1 = 50%; 1,897.0 - 1,669.8 = 227.2. Merchant rate 2.51% - 2.24% = 0.27 points x 1,669.8 billion = about 4.5 billion; 4.5 / 37.4 = 12%. Pretax income 13,795 - 10,689 = 3,106. Revenue mix 2019: discount 26,167 / 43,556 = 60.1%; net interest income 8,620 / 43,556 = 19.8%; 2025: 37,401 / 72,229 = 51.8%; 17,364 / 72,229 = 24.0%. Net interest income 17,364 / 7,750 = 2.24; 17,364 / 8,620 - 1 = 101%; +100bp +19 / 17,364 = 0.1%. Card Member loans 151,832 / 87,400 - 1 = 74%. Held for sale 2,457 / 151,832 = 1.6%. Revenue 2020 36,087 / 43,556 - 1 = -17%. Deposits 152,488 / 210,300 = 72.5%; 156,973 / 152,488 - 1 = 2.9%. Delta: 13% x 1,669.8 = 217 billion; 8.2 billion / net income 10,833 = 76%; 8.2 / net card fees 9,993 = 82%; 8.2 / 7.4 - 1 = 11%. Other cobrands 26% - 13% = 13% x 1,669.8 = 217; proprietary 74% x 1,669.8 = 1,236. Valuation: market value 206.30 / 254.84 - 1 = -19%; P/E 206.30 / trailing net income 11.446 = 18.0; P/S 206.30 / 75.95 = 2.72; end-2025 254.84 / 10.833 = 23.5; end-2015 68.45 / 5.163 = 13.3; earnings yield 1 / 23.5 = 4.3%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 72,229 + 38,544 - 34,823 = 75,950; net income 10,833 + 6,082 - 5,469 = 11,446; EPS 15.38 + 8.81 - 7.71 = 16.48. Diluted shares 696 / 1,003 - 1 = -30.6%. Net income 10,833 / 5,163 = 2.10; EPS 15.38 / 5.05 = 3.05. Berkshire 151.61 million / 675 million = 22.5%; 13F shares 1,149,942 + 149,061,045 + 1,399,713 = 151,610,700, value 388,967,882 + 50,419,898,471 + 473,452,922 = $51.28 billion (30 June 2026). Card balances consumer 144,974 / 218,054 = 66%. Card fees / discount revenue 9,993 / 37,401 = 27% (2025), 4,042 / 26,167 = 15% (2019). Marketing plus incentives 6,252 + 30,923 = 37,175. Provisions / net interest income 5,256 / 17,364 = 30%. Card Member loans growth 139,674 / 125,995 - 1 = 11%; 151,832 / 139,674 - 1 = 9%; billed business 1,550.9 / 1,459.6 - 1 = 6%. Price to book 305.50 / 48.42 = 6.3. Receivables 62,031 / (151,832 + 62,031) = 29%. GMNS Q2 2026 pretax 1,128 / 1,054 - 1 = 7%. Dividend yield 3.80 / 305.50 = 1.2%. Discount revenue at the 2013 rate 2.51% x 1,669.8 = 41.9 billion; each basis point of rate 0.0001 x 1,669.8 billion = 167 million (5bp 835, 10bp 1,670). Merchant locations at the start of 2026 about 190 - 20 = 170 million. Card Member services growth 2021-2025 +204% against net card fees +92%. A 2020-sized fall today: 18.7% x 1,669.8 = about 312 billion. Revenue outside the United States (7,073 + 5,218 + 4,194) / 72,229 = 23%. 2026 revenue guidance 72,229 x 1.10 = 79,452. Segments (2025, $ millions): revenue 34,814 + 16,926 + 13,000 + 7,759 = 72,499; less Corporate and Other 270 = 72,229. Shares of segment revenue: USCS 34,814 / 72,499 = 48.0%; CS 23.3%; ICS 17.9%; GMNS 10.7%. Pretax income 6,810 + 3,668 + 1,603 + 3,968 = 16,049; shares USCS 42.4%, CS 22.9%, ICS 10.0%, GMNS 24.7%. Pretax margins: USCS 6,810 / 34,814 = 19.6% (2020 3,103 / 16,347 = 19.0%; 2021 5,958 / 18,922 = 31.5%; 2022 5,400 / 23,914 = 22.6%; 2023 5,433 / 28,116 = 19.3%; 2024 6,377 / 31,427 = 20.3%); CS 3,668 / 16,926 = 21.7% (2020 1,013 / 9,234 = 11.0%); ICS 1,603 / 13,000 = 12.3% (2020 521 / 6,742 = 7.7%; 2021 929 / 7,435 = 12.5%; 2022 578 / 9,061 = 6.4%; 2023 973 / 10,430 = 9.3%; 2024 1,031 / 11,461 = 9.0%); GMNS 3,968 / 7,759 = 51.1% (2020 1,294 / 4,309 = 30.0%; 2021 1,874 / 5,129 = 36.5%; 2022 2,954 / 6,475 = 45.6%; 2023 3,656 / 7,396 = 49.4%). ICS pretax 1,603 / 1,031 - 1 = 55%. GMNS 2024 excluding the Accertify gain 4,398 - 531 = 3,867; 3,968 / 3,867 - 1 = 2.6%. Revenue 2020 to 2025: USCS 34,814 / 16,347 = 2.13; CS 16,926 / 9,234 = 1.83; ICS 13,000 / 6,742 = 1.93; GMNS 7,759 / 4,309 = 1.80. 2020 segment total 16,347 + 9,234 + 6,742 + 4,309 = 36,632; USCS share 16,347 / 36,632 = 44.6%. USCS Q2 2026 pretax 2,065 / 1,676 - 1 = 23%. Regions 2025: pretax 13,054 + 1,255 + 831 + 907 = 16,047; United States 13,054 / 16,047 = 81%; 13,054 / consolidated 13,795 = 95%; outside the United States (1,255 + 831 + 907) / 16,047 = 19%; revenue 56,015 / 72,229 = 78% - card fees, spending, lending, funding, valuation, Delta and per-share arithmetic. — 2013-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in American Express's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and statistical supplements, Delta Air Lines' Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  10. ReportedEvery dollar spent on acquisition is a dollar not returned to shareholders, and Amex has returned about $7.6 billion a year.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - card metrics: billed business, spending per card, cards-in-force, fees per card and network volumes. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedIn 2025 marketing of $6,252 million and the three incentive lines of $30,923 million together came to about $37.2 billion, nearly all of the $37,401 million of discount revenue.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - income statement, business description and management. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  12. Moat Explorer calcIn 2025 marketing of $6,252 million and the three incentive lines of $30,923 million together came to about $37.2 billion, nearly all of the $37,401 million of discount revenue.
    Moat Explorer calculation from American Express's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Incentives (variable customer engagement costs = Card Member rewards + business development + Card Member services): 2021 11,007 + 3,762 + 1,993 = 16,762; 2022 14,002 + 4,943 + 2,959 = 21,904; 2023 15,367 + 5,657 + 3,968 = 24,992; 2024 16,599 + 5,886 + 4,782 = 27,267; 2025 18,409 + 6,457 + 6,057 = 30,923; Q2 2026 5,051 + 1,755 + 1,949 = 8,755; Q2 2025 7,508. As a share of discount revenue: 16,762 / 24,563 = 68.2%; 21,904 / 30,739 = 71.3%; 24,992 / 33,416 = 74.8%; 27,267 / 35,192 = 77.5%; 30,923 / 37,401 = 82.7%; Q2 2026 8,755 / 10,163 = 86.1%; Q2 2025 7,508 / 9,361 = 80.2%. Discount revenue left after incentives: 24,563 - 16,762 = 7,801; 30,739 - 21,904 = 8,835; 33,416 - 24,992 = 8,424; 35,192 - 27,267 = 7,925; 37,401 - 30,923 = 6,478; Q2 2026 10,163 - 8,755 = 1,408; Q2 2025 9,361 - 7,508 = 1,853. Incentives / total revenue 16,762 / 42,380 = 39.6%; 30,923 / 72,229 = 42.8%. Incentive growth 30,923 / 16,762 - 1 = 84%; 30,923 / 27,267 - 1 = 13.4%. Discount revenue growth 37,401 / 24,563 - 1 = 52%; 37,401 / 35,192 - 1 = 6.3%. Rewards 18,409 / 11,007 - 1 = 67%; rewards / discount revenue 11,007 / 24,563 = 44.8%; 14,002 / 30,739 = 45.6%; 15,367 / 33,416 = 46.0%; 16,599 / 35,192 = 47.2%; 18,409 / 37,401 = 49.2%. Business development 6,457 / 3,762 - 1 = 72%; / discount revenue 3,762 / 24,563 = 15.3%, 6,457 / 37,401 = 17.3%. Card Member services 6,057 / 1,993 = 3.04 times (+204%); 6,057 / 1,392 = 4.35; growth 3,968 / 2,959 - 1 = 34.1%; 4,782 / 3,968 - 1 = 20.5%; 6,057 / 4,782 - 1 = 26.7%; 6,057 / 2,959 = 2.05. Card Member services / net card fees 1,993 / 5,195 = 38%; 3,968 / 7,255 = 55%; 6,057 / 9,993 = 61%; Q2 2026 1,949 / 2,862 = 68%. Membership Rewards liability 16.5 billion / equity 33,474 = 49%; URR +1 point = 4 x 229 = 916. Card fees: 9,993 / 4,042 = 2.47 (+147%); 9,993 / 5,195 - 1 = 92%; growth 6,070 / 5,195 - 1 = 16.8%, 7,255 / 6,070 - 1 = 19.5%, 8,449 / 7,255 - 1 = 16.5%, 9,993 / 8,449 - 1 = 18.3%; added 9,993 - 8,449 = 1,544. Share of revenue 4,042 / 43,556 = 9.3%; 5,195 / 42,380 = 12.3%; 7,255 / 60,515 = 12.0%; 9,993 / 72,229 = 13.8%. Average fee per card 131 / 58 = 2.26; 117 / 103 - 1 = 14%. Proprietary cards 86.6 / 70.3 - 1 = 23%. Marketing 6,252 / 12.5 million new cards = about $500; 6,252 / 1,544 = 4.0. Card fees plus net interest income (9,993 + 17,364) / 72,229 = 38%. Spending per card 23,496 / 20,392 - 1 = 15.2%; 24,059 / 23,496 - 1 = 2.4%; 24,608 / 24,059 - 1 = 2.3%; 25,453 / 24,608 - 1 = 3.4%. Billed business 1,669.8 / 1,070.5 - 1 = 56%; 1,669.8 / 1,550.9 - 1 = 7.7%; 870.7 / 1,070.5 - 1 = -18.7%. Network volumes 1,897.0 / 1,265.7 - 1 = 50%; 1,897.0 - 1,669.8 = 227.2. Merchant rate 2.51% - 2.24% = 0.27 points x 1,669.8 billion = about 4.5 billion; 4.5 / 37.4 = 12%. Pretax income 13,795 - 10,689 = 3,106. Revenue mix 2019: discount 26,167 / 43,556 = 60.1%; net interest income 8,620 / 43,556 = 19.8%; 2025: 37,401 / 72,229 = 51.8%; 17,364 / 72,229 = 24.0%. Net interest income 17,364 / 7,750 = 2.24; 17,364 / 8,620 - 1 = 101%; +100bp +19 / 17,364 = 0.1%. Card Member loans 151,832 / 87,400 - 1 = 74%. Held for sale 2,457 / 151,832 = 1.6%. Revenue 2020 36,087 / 43,556 - 1 = -17%. Deposits 152,488 / 210,300 = 72.5%; 156,973 / 152,488 - 1 = 2.9%. Delta: 13% x 1,669.8 = 217 billion; 8.2 billion / net income 10,833 = 76%; 8.2 / net card fees 9,993 = 82%; 8.2 / 7.4 - 1 = 11%. Other cobrands 26% - 13% = 13% x 1,669.8 = 217; proprietary 74% x 1,669.8 = 1,236. Valuation: market value 206.30 / 254.84 - 1 = -19%; P/E 206.30 / trailing net income 11.446 = 18.0; P/S 206.30 / 75.95 = 2.72; end-2025 254.84 / 10.833 = 23.5; end-2015 68.45 / 5.163 = 13.3; earnings yield 1 / 23.5 = 4.3%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 72,229 + 38,544 - 34,823 = 75,950; net income 10,833 + 6,082 - 5,469 = 11,446; EPS 15.38 + 8.81 - 7.71 = 16.48. Diluted shares 696 / 1,003 - 1 = -30.6%. Net income 10,833 / 5,163 = 2.10; EPS 15.38 / 5.05 = 3.05. Berkshire 151.61 million / 675 million = 22.5%; 13F shares 1,149,942 + 149,061,045 + 1,399,713 = 151,610,700, value 388,967,882 + 50,419,898,471 + 473,452,922 = $51.28 billion (30 June 2026). Card balances consumer 144,974 / 218,054 = 66%. Card fees / discount revenue 9,993 / 37,401 = 27% (2025), 4,042 / 26,167 = 15% (2019). Marketing plus incentives 6,252 + 30,923 = 37,175. Provisions / net interest income 5,256 / 17,364 = 30%. Card Member loans growth 139,674 / 125,995 - 1 = 11%; 151,832 / 139,674 - 1 = 9%; billed business 1,550.9 / 1,459.6 - 1 = 6%. Price to book 305.50 / 48.42 = 6.3. Receivables 62,031 / (151,832 + 62,031) = 29%. GMNS Q2 2026 pretax 1,128 / 1,054 - 1 = 7%. Dividend yield 3.80 / 305.50 = 1.2%. Discount revenue at the 2013 rate 2.51% x 1,669.8 = 41.9 billion; each basis point of rate 0.0001 x 1,669.8 billion = 167 million (5bp 835, 10bp 1,670). Merchant locations at the start of 2026 about 190 - 20 = 170 million. Card Member services growth 2021-2025 +204% against net card fees +92%. A 2020-sized fall today: 18.7% x 1,669.8 = about 312 billion. Revenue outside the United States (7,073 + 5,218 + 4,194) / 72,229 = 23%. 2026 revenue guidance 72,229 x 1.10 = 79,452. Segments (2025, $ millions): revenue 34,814 + 16,926 + 13,000 + 7,759 = 72,499; less Corporate and Other 270 = 72,229. Shares of segment revenue: USCS 34,814 / 72,499 = 48.0%; CS 23.3%; ICS 17.9%; GMNS 10.7%. Pretax income 6,810 + 3,668 + 1,603 + 3,968 = 16,049; shares USCS 42.4%, CS 22.9%, ICS 10.0%, GMNS 24.7%. Pretax margins: USCS 6,810 / 34,814 = 19.6% (2020 3,103 / 16,347 = 19.0%; 2021 5,958 / 18,922 = 31.5%; 2022 5,400 / 23,914 = 22.6%; 2023 5,433 / 28,116 = 19.3%; 2024 6,377 / 31,427 = 20.3%); CS 3,668 / 16,926 = 21.7% (2020 1,013 / 9,234 = 11.0%); ICS 1,603 / 13,000 = 12.3% (2020 521 / 6,742 = 7.7%; 2021 929 / 7,435 = 12.5%; 2022 578 / 9,061 = 6.4%; 2023 973 / 10,430 = 9.3%; 2024 1,031 / 11,461 = 9.0%); GMNS 3,968 / 7,759 = 51.1% (2020 1,294 / 4,309 = 30.0%; 2021 1,874 / 5,129 = 36.5%; 2022 2,954 / 6,475 = 45.6%; 2023 3,656 / 7,396 = 49.4%). ICS pretax 1,603 / 1,031 - 1 = 55%. GMNS 2024 excluding the Accertify gain 4,398 - 531 = 3,867; 3,968 / 3,867 - 1 = 2.6%. Revenue 2020 to 2025: USCS 34,814 / 16,347 = 2.13; CS 16,926 / 9,234 = 1.83; ICS 13,000 / 6,742 = 1.93; GMNS 7,759 / 4,309 = 1.80. 2020 segment total 16,347 + 9,234 + 6,742 + 4,309 = 36,632; USCS share 16,347 / 36,632 = 44.6%. USCS Q2 2026 pretax 2,065 / 1,676 - 1 = 23%. Regions 2025: pretax 13,054 + 1,255 + 831 + 907 = 16,047; United States 13,054 / 16,047 = 81%; 13,054 / consolidated 13,795 = 95%; outside the United States (1,255 + 831 + 907) / 16,047 = 19%; revenue 56,015 / 72,229 = 78% - the incentive lines (rewards, business development, Card Member services) against discount revenue and card fees. — 2013-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in American Express's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and statistical supplements, Delta Air Lines' Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  13. Moat Explorer calcIn 2025 Amex spent about four dollars of marketing for each dollar of added fee revenue; if that rose toward six while acquisitions stayed near 12 million, the customers would be costing more to find than they used to.
    Moat Explorer calculation from American Express's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Incentives (variable customer engagement costs = Card Member rewards + business development + Card Member services): 2021 11,007 + 3,762 + 1,993 = 16,762; 2022 14,002 + 4,943 + 2,959 = 21,904; 2023 15,367 + 5,657 + 3,968 = 24,992; 2024 16,599 + 5,886 + 4,782 = 27,267; 2025 18,409 + 6,457 + 6,057 = 30,923; Q2 2026 5,051 + 1,755 + 1,949 = 8,755; Q2 2025 7,508. As a share of discount revenue: 16,762 / 24,563 = 68.2%; 21,904 / 30,739 = 71.3%; 24,992 / 33,416 = 74.8%; 27,267 / 35,192 = 77.5%; 30,923 / 37,401 = 82.7%; Q2 2026 8,755 / 10,163 = 86.1%; Q2 2025 7,508 / 9,361 = 80.2%. Discount revenue left after incentives: 24,563 - 16,762 = 7,801; 30,739 - 21,904 = 8,835; 33,416 - 24,992 = 8,424; 35,192 - 27,267 = 7,925; 37,401 - 30,923 = 6,478; Q2 2026 10,163 - 8,755 = 1,408; Q2 2025 9,361 - 7,508 = 1,853. Incentives / total revenue 16,762 / 42,380 = 39.6%; 30,923 / 72,229 = 42.8%. Incentive growth 30,923 / 16,762 - 1 = 84%; 30,923 / 27,267 - 1 = 13.4%. Discount revenue growth 37,401 / 24,563 - 1 = 52%; 37,401 / 35,192 - 1 = 6.3%. Rewards 18,409 / 11,007 - 1 = 67%; rewards / discount revenue 11,007 / 24,563 = 44.8%; 14,002 / 30,739 = 45.6%; 15,367 / 33,416 = 46.0%; 16,599 / 35,192 = 47.2%; 18,409 / 37,401 = 49.2%. Business development 6,457 / 3,762 - 1 = 72%; / discount revenue 3,762 / 24,563 = 15.3%, 6,457 / 37,401 = 17.3%. Card Member services 6,057 / 1,993 = 3.04 times (+204%); 6,057 / 1,392 = 4.35; growth 3,968 / 2,959 - 1 = 34.1%; 4,782 / 3,968 - 1 = 20.5%; 6,057 / 4,782 - 1 = 26.7%; 6,057 / 2,959 = 2.05. Card Member services / net card fees 1,993 / 5,195 = 38%; 3,968 / 7,255 = 55%; 6,057 / 9,993 = 61%; Q2 2026 1,949 / 2,862 = 68%. Membership Rewards liability 16.5 billion / equity 33,474 = 49%; URR +1 point = 4 x 229 = 916. Card fees: 9,993 / 4,042 = 2.47 (+147%); 9,993 / 5,195 - 1 = 92%; growth 6,070 / 5,195 - 1 = 16.8%, 7,255 / 6,070 - 1 = 19.5%, 8,449 / 7,255 - 1 = 16.5%, 9,993 / 8,449 - 1 = 18.3%; added 9,993 - 8,449 = 1,544. Share of revenue 4,042 / 43,556 = 9.3%; 5,195 / 42,380 = 12.3%; 7,255 / 60,515 = 12.0%; 9,993 / 72,229 = 13.8%. Average fee per card 131 / 58 = 2.26; 117 / 103 - 1 = 14%. Proprietary cards 86.6 / 70.3 - 1 = 23%. Marketing 6,252 / 12.5 million new cards = about $500; 6,252 / 1,544 = 4.0. Card fees plus net interest income (9,993 + 17,364) / 72,229 = 38%. Spending per card 23,496 / 20,392 - 1 = 15.2%; 24,059 / 23,496 - 1 = 2.4%; 24,608 / 24,059 - 1 = 2.3%; 25,453 / 24,608 - 1 = 3.4%. Billed business 1,669.8 / 1,070.5 - 1 = 56%; 1,669.8 / 1,550.9 - 1 = 7.7%; 870.7 / 1,070.5 - 1 = -18.7%. Network volumes 1,897.0 / 1,265.7 - 1 = 50%; 1,897.0 - 1,669.8 = 227.2. Merchant rate 2.51% - 2.24% = 0.27 points x 1,669.8 billion = about 4.5 billion; 4.5 / 37.4 = 12%. Pretax income 13,795 - 10,689 = 3,106. Revenue mix 2019: discount 26,167 / 43,556 = 60.1%; net interest income 8,620 / 43,556 = 19.8%; 2025: 37,401 / 72,229 = 51.8%; 17,364 / 72,229 = 24.0%. Net interest income 17,364 / 7,750 = 2.24; 17,364 / 8,620 - 1 = 101%; +100bp +19 / 17,364 = 0.1%. Card Member loans 151,832 / 87,400 - 1 = 74%. Held for sale 2,457 / 151,832 = 1.6%. Revenue 2020 36,087 / 43,556 - 1 = -17%. Deposits 152,488 / 210,300 = 72.5%; 156,973 / 152,488 - 1 = 2.9%. Delta: 13% x 1,669.8 = 217 billion; 8.2 billion / net income 10,833 = 76%; 8.2 / net card fees 9,993 = 82%; 8.2 / 7.4 - 1 = 11%. Other cobrands 26% - 13% = 13% x 1,669.8 = 217; proprietary 74% x 1,669.8 = 1,236. Valuation: market value 206.30 / 254.84 - 1 = -19%; P/E 206.30 / trailing net income 11.446 = 18.0; P/S 206.30 / 75.95 = 2.72; end-2025 254.84 / 10.833 = 23.5; end-2015 68.45 / 5.163 = 13.3; earnings yield 1 / 23.5 = 4.3%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 72,229 + 38,544 - 34,823 = 75,950; net income 10,833 + 6,082 - 5,469 = 11,446; EPS 15.38 + 8.81 - 7.71 = 16.48. Diluted shares 696 / 1,003 - 1 = -30.6%. Net income 10,833 / 5,163 = 2.10; EPS 15.38 / 5.05 = 3.05. Berkshire 151.61 million / 675 million = 22.5%; 13F shares 1,149,942 + 149,061,045 + 1,399,713 = 151,610,700, value 388,967,882 + 50,419,898,471 + 473,452,922 = $51.28 billion (30 June 2026). Card balances consumer 144,974 / 218,054 = 66%. Card fees / discount revenue 9,993 / 37,401 = 27% (2025), 4,042 / 26,167 = 15% (2019). Marketing plus incentives 6,252 + 30,923 = 37,175. Provisions / net interest income 5,256 / 17,364 = 30%. Card Member loans growth 139,674 / 125,995 - 1 = 11%; 151,832 / 139,674 - 1 = 9%; billed business 1,550.9 / 1,459.6 - 1 = 6%. Price to book 305.50 / 48.42 = 6.3. Receivables 62,031 / (151,832 + 62,031) = 29%. GMNS Q2 2026 pretax 1,128 / 1,054 - 1 = 7%. Dividend yield 3.80 / 305.50 = 1.2%. Discount revenue at the 2013 rate 2.51% x 1,669.8 = 41.9 billion; each basis point of rate 0.0001 x 1,669.8 billion = 167 million (5bp 835, 10bp 1,670). Merchant locations at the start of 2026 about 190 - 20 = 170 million. Card Member services growth 2021-2025 +204% against net card fees +92%. A 2020-sized fall today: 18.7% x 1,669.8 = about 312 billion. Revenue outside the United States (7,073 + 5,218 + 4,194) / 72,229 = 23%. 2026 revenue guidance 72,229 x 1.10 = 79,452. Segments (2025, $ millions): revenue 34,814 + 16,926 + 13,000 + 7,759 = 72,499; less Corporate and Other 270 = 72,229. Shares of segment revenue: USCS 34,814 / 72,499 = 48.0%; CS 23.3%; ICS 17.9%; GMNS 10.7%. Pretax income 6,810 + 3,668 + 1,603 + 3,968 = 16,049; shares USCS 42.4%, CS 22.9%, ICS 10.0%, GMNS 24.7%. Pretax margins: USCS 6,810 / 34,814 = 19.6% (2020 3,103 / 16,347 = 19.0%; 2021 5,958 / 18,922 = 31.5%; 2022 5,400 / 23,914 = 22.6%; 2023 5,433 / 28,116 = 19.3%; 2024 6,377 / 31,427 = 20.3%); CS 3,668 / 16,926 = 21.7% (2020 1,013 / 9,234 = 11.0%); ICS 1,603 / 13,000 = 12.3% (2020 521 / 6,742 = 7.7%; 2021 929 / 7,435 = 12.5%; 2022 578 / 9,061 = 6.4%; 2023 973 / 10,430 = 9.3%; 2024 1,031 / 11,461 = 9.0%); GMNS 3,968 / 7,759 = 51.1% (2020 1,294 / 4,309 = 30.0%; 2021 1,874 / 5,129 = 36.5%; 2022 2,954 / 6,475 = 45.6%; 2023 3,656 / 7,396 = 49.4%). ICS pretax 1,603 / 1,031 - 1 = 55%. GMNS 2024 excluding the Accertify gain 4,398 - 531 = 3,867; 3,968 / 3,867 - 1 = 2.6%. Revenue 2020 to 2025: USCS 34,814 / 16,347 = 2.13; CS 16,926 / 9,234 = 1.83; ICS 13,000 / 6,742 = 1.93; GMNS 7,759 / 4,309 = 1.80. 2020 segment total 16,347 + 9,234 + 6,742 + 4,309 = 36,632; USCS share 16,347 / 36,632 = 44.6%. USCS Q2 2026 pretax 2,065 / 1,676 - 1 = 23%. Regions 2025: pretax 13,054 + 1,255 + 831 + 907 = 16,047; United States 13,054 / 16,047 = 81%; 13,054 / consolidated 13,795 = 95%; outside the United States (1,255 + 831 + 907) / 16,047 = 19%; revenue 56,015 / 72,229 = 78% - card fees, spending, lending, funding, valuation, Delta and per-share arithmetic. — 2013-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in American Express's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and statistical supplements, Delta Air Lines' Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026