✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

American Express (AXP) — the future bets

Every American Express bet is a way to make the premium card harder to give up, and each one adds to the bill before it adds to the moat.

American Express's plans for the next few years are extensions of the premium card, not departures from it. For 2026 it guided to revenue growth of about 10% and earnings per share of $17.30 to $17.901, after raising the revenue guide from 9 to 10 percent2. On the call it said revenue ahead of plan would fund technology, card acquisition and the TheFork integration rather than higher earnings3.

Diluted EPS ($)11.21202314.01202415.38202517.302026 guidance low17.902026 guidance highAmerican Express Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 earnings release
The bets are funded inside a rising earnings guide.

The four bets below share a purpose: to make the card harder to give up. Dining platforms give the premium cardholder access a rival cannot copy. International growth adds a second franchise outside the United States, where the company now earns about four-fifths of regional pretax income4. Expense software ties mid-sized companies to the commercial card. Deposit accounts give cardholders a banking relationship.

None of them changes the central arithmetic on the Rewards Bill pages. Each adds benefits or products that cost money, and each has to earn more than it costs to widen the moat.

Two of the four are unproven: the expense platform is in pilot, and the deposit relationship reaches about a tenth of U.S. card members5. The international business is proven in growth and not yet in margin.

The company has also started preparing for software agents that shop on a cardholder's behalf. At the end of 2025 it said it had launched Dining Companion and was developing standards with partners to enable agent-driven commerce6, and on the second-quarter call it listed agentic commerce among the uses for revenue ahead of plan7. No figures are disclosed, and none of the four bets below depends on it.

The balance sheet gives room to pay for them. Operating cash flow was $18,428 million in 20258, and the company returned $7.6 billion to shareholders in the same year9, so the bets are being funded alongside the buybacks rather than instead of them.

The 2026 guidance is the test of the whole set. Earnings per share of at least $17.30, against $15.38 in 202510, would mean the bets were being paid for out of growth; a cut in the guidance while spending on the bets continued would mean the company was buying the future out of current returns.

Moat trajectory: Widening

2026 revenue growth guided to about 10%; EPS guidance $17.30-$17.90.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
2026 EPS guidance against 2025
$17.30-$17.90 guided, against $15.38 (2025)

Whether the bets are paid for out of growth; a guidance cut with spending unchanged would mean they were paid for out of returns.

Source: American Express Q2 2026 earnings release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Dining: Resy, Tock and TheFork
American Express is buying restaurant booking platforms so that its premium card gets its holder a table, a benefit rivals cannot simply pay for.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
The Premium Card Abroad
International Card Services is where American Express grows fastest, and its margin is still about half what the U.S. consumer business earns.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
The Middle Market and the Expense Platform
American Express is trying to win back mid-sized companies with expense software, because the card alone has stopped winning them.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Deposits and the Banking Relationship
About a tenth of U.S. Amex card members also bank with it, which makes deposits a funding tool today and a possible switching cost tomorrow.
References
  1. ReportedFor 2026 it guided to revenue growth of about 10% and earnings per share of $17.30 to $17.90, after raising the revenue guide from 9 to 10 percent.
    American Express second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedFor 2026 it guided to revenue growth of about 10% and earnings per share of $17.30 to $17.90, after raising the revenue guide from 9 to 10 percent.
    American Express fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 2026 guidance and the dividend increase. — Q4 2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateOn the call it said revenue ahead of plan would fund technology, card acquisition and the TheFork integration rather than higher earnings.
    American Express second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (third-party transcript). — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcInternational growth adds a second franchise outside the United States, where the company now earns about four-fifths of regional pretax income.
    Moat Explorer calculation from American Express's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Incentives (variable customer engagement costs = Card Member rewards + business development + Card Member services): 2021 11,007 + 3,762 + 1,993 = 16,762; 2022 14,002 + 4,943 + 2,959 = 21,904; 2023 15,367 + 5,657 + 3,968 = 24,992; 2024 16,599 + 5,886 + 4,782 = 27,267; 2025 18,409 + 6,457 + 6,057 = 30,923; Q2 2026 5,051 + 1,755 + 1,949 = 8,755; Q2 2025 7,508. As a share of discount revenue: 16,762 / 24,563 = 68.2%; 21,904 / 30,739 = 71.3%; 24,992 / 33,416 = 74.8%; 27,267 / 35,192 = 77.5%; 30,923 / 37,401 = 82.7%; Q2 2026 8,755 / 10,163 = 86.1%; Q2 2025 7,508 / 9,361 = 80.2%. Discount revenue left after incentives: 24,563 - 16,762 = 7,801; 30,739 - 21,904 = 8,835; 33,416 - 24,992 = 8,424; 35,192 - 27,267 = 7,925; 37,401 - 30,923 = 6,478; Q2 2026 10,163 - 8,755 = 1,408; Q2 2025 9,361 - 7,508 = 1,853. Incentives / total revenue 16,762 / 42,380 = 39.6%; 30,923 / 72,229 = 42.8%. Incentive growth 30,923 / 16,762 - 1 = 84%; 30,923 / 27,267 - 1 = 13.4%. Discount revenue growth 37,401 / 24,563 - 1 = 52%; 37,401 / 35,192 - 1 = 6.3%. Rewards 18,409 / 11,007 - 1 = 67%; rewards / discount revenue 11,007 / 24,563 = 44.8%; 14,002 / 30,739 = 45.6%; 15,367 / 33,416 = 46.0%; 16,599 / 35,192 = 47.2%; 18,409 / 37,401 = 49.2%. Business development 6,457 / 3,762 - 1 = 72%; / discount revenue 3,762 / 24,563 = 15.3%, 6,457 / 37,401 = 17.3%. Card Member services 6,057 / 1,993 = 3.04 times (+204%); 6,057 / 1,392 = 4.35; growth 3,968 / 2,959 - 1 = 34.1%; 4,782 / 3,968 - 1 = 20.5%; 6,057 / 4,782 - 1 = 26.7%; 6,057 / 2,959 = 2.05. Card Member services / net card fees 1,993 / 5,195 = 38%; 3,968 / 7,255 = 55%; 6,057 / 9,993 = 61%; Q2 2026 1,949 / 2,862 = 68%. Membership Rewards liability 16.5 billion / equity 33,474 = 49%; URR +1 point = 4 x 229 = 916. Card fees: 9,993 / 4,042 = 2.47 (+147%); 9,993 / 5,195 - 1 = 92%; growth 6,070 / 5,195 - 1 = 16.8%, 7,255 / 6,070 - 1 = 19.5%, 8,449 / 7,255 - 1 = 16.5%, 9,993 / 8,449 - 1 = 18.3%; added 9,993 - 8,449 = 1,544. Share of revenue 4,042 / 43,556 = 9.3%; 5,195 / 42,380 = 12.3%; 7,255 / 60,515 = 12.0%; 9,993 / 72,229 = 13.8%. Average fee per card 131 / 58 = 2.26; 117 / 103 - 1 = 14%. Proprietary cards 86.6 / 70.3 - 1 = 23%. Marketing 6,252 / 12.5 million new cards = about $500; 6,252 / 1,544 = 4.0. Card fees plus net interest income (9,993 + 17,364) / 72,229 = 38%. Spending per card 23,496 / 20,392 - 1 = 15.2%; 24,059 / 23,496 - 1 = 2.4%; 24,608 / 24,059 - 1 = 2.3%; 25,453 / 24,608 - 1 = 3.4%. Billed business 1,669.8 / 1,070.5 - 1 = 56%; 1,669.8 / 1,550.9 - 1 = 7.7%; 870.7 / 1,070.5 - 1 = -18.7%. Network volumes 1,897.0 / 1,265.7 - 1 = 50%; 1,897.0 - 1,669.8 = 227.2. Merchant rate 2.51% - 2.24% = 0.27 points x 1,669.8 billion = about 4.5 billion; 4.5 / 37.4 = 12%. Pretax income 13,795 - 10,689 = 3,106. Revenue mix 2019: discount 26,167 / 43,556 = 60.1%; net interest income 8,620 / 43,556 = 19.8%; 2025: 37,401 / 72,229 = 51.8%; 17,364 / 72,229 = 24.0%. Net interest income 17,364 / 7,750 = 2.24; 17,364 / 8,620 - 1 = 101%; +100bp +19 / 17,364 = 0.1%. Card Member loans 151,832 / 87,400 - 1 = 74%. Held for sale 2,457 / 151,832 = 1.6%. Revenue 2020 36,087 / 43,556 - 1 = -17%. Deposits 152,488 / 210,300 = 72.5%; 156,973 / 152,488 - 1 = 2.9%. Delta: 13% x 1,669.8 = 217 billion; 8.2 billion / net income 10,833 = 76%; 8.2 / net card fees 9,993 = 82%; 8.2 / 7.4 - 1 = 11%. Other cobrands 26% - 13% = 13% x 1,669.8 = 217; proprietary 74% x 1,669.8 = 1,236. Valuation: market value 206.30 / 254.84 - 1 = -19%; P/E 206.30 / trailing net income 11.446 = 18.0; P/S 206.30 / 75.95 = 2.72; end-2025 254.84 / 10.833 = 23.5; end-2015 68.45 / 5.163 = 13.3; earnings yield 1 / 23.5 = 4.3%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 72,229 + 38,544 - 34,823 = 75,950; net income 10,833 + 6,082 - 5,469 = 11,446; EPS 15.38 + 8.81 - 7.71 = 16.48. Diluted shares 696 / 1,003 - 1 = -30.6%. Net income 10,833 / 5,163 = 2.10; EPS 15.38 / 5.05 = 3.05. Berkshire 151.61 million / 675 million = 22.5%; 13F shares 1,149,942 + 149,061,045 + 1,399,713 = 151,610,700, value 388,967,882 + 50,419,898,471 + 473,452,922 = $51.28 billion (30 June 2026). Card balances consumer 144,974 / 218,054 = 66%. Card fees / discount revenue 9,993 / 37,401 = 27% (2025), 4,042 / 26,167 = 15% (2019). Marketing plus incentives 6,252 + 30,923 = 37,175. Provisions / net interest income 5,256 / 17,364 = 30%. Card Member loans growth 139,674 / 125,995 - 1 = 11%; 151,832 / 139,674 - 1 = 9%; billed business 1,550.9 / 1,459.6 - 1 = 6%. Price to book 305.50 / 48.42 = 6.3. Receivables 62,031 / (151,832 + 62,031) = 29%. GMNS Q2 2026 pretax 1,128 / 1,054 - 1 = 7%. Dividend yield 3.80 / 305.50 = 1.2%. Discount revenue at the 2013 rate 2.51% x 1,669.8 = 41.9 billion; each basis point of rate 0.0001 x 1,669.8 billion = 167 million (5bp 835, 10bp 1,670). Merchant locations at the start of 2026 about 190 - 20 = 170 million. Card Member services growth 2021-2025 +204% against net card fees +92%. A 2020-sized fall today: 18.7% x 1,669.8 = about 312 billion. Revenue outside the United States (7,073 + 5,218 + 4,194) / 72,229 = 23%. 2026 revenue guidance 72,229 x 1.10 = 79,452. Segments (2025, $ millions): revenue 34,814 + 16,926 + 13,000 + 7,759 = 72,499; less Corporate and Other 270 = 72,229. Shares of segment revenue: USCS 34,814 / 72,499 = 48.0%; CS 23.3%; ICS 17.9%; GMNS 10.7%. Pretax income 6,810 + 3,668 + 1,603 + 3,968 = 16,049; shares USCS 42.4%, CS 22.9%, ICS 10.0%, GMNS 24.7%. Pretax margins: USCS 6,810 / 34,814 = 19.6% (2020 3,103 / 16,347 = 19.0%; 2021 5,958 / 18,922 = 31.5%; 2022 5,400 / 23,914 = 22.6%; 2023 5,433 / 28,116 = 19.3%; 2024 6,377 / 31,427 = 20.3%); CS 3,668 / 16,926 = 21.7% (2020 1,013 / 9,234 = 11.0%); ICS 1,603 / 13,000 = 12.3% (2020 521 / 6,742 = 7.7%; 2021 929 / 7,435 = 12.5%; 2022 578 / 9,061 = 6.4%; 2023 973 / 10,430 = 9.3%; 2024 1,031 / 11,461 = 9.0%); GMNS 3,968 / 7,759 = 51.1% (2020 1,294 / 4,309 = 30.0%; 2021 1,874 / 5,129 = 36.5%; 2022 2,954 / 6,475 = 45.6%; 2023 3,656 / 7,396 = 49.4%). ICS pretax 1,603 / 1,031 - 1 = 55%. GMNS 2024 excluding the Accertify gain 4,398 - 531 = 3,867; 3,968 / 3,867 - 1 = 2.6%. Revenue 2020 to 2025: USCS 34,814 / 16,347 = 2.13; CS 16,926 / 9,234 = 1.83; ICS 13,000 / 6,742 = 1.93; GMNS 7,759 / 4,309 = 1.80. 2020 segment total 16,347 + 9,234 + 6,742 + 4,309 = 36,632; USCS share 16,347 / 36,632 = 44.6%. USCS Q2 2026 pretax 2,065 / 1,676 - 1 = 23%. Regions 2025: pretax 13,054 + 1,255 + 831 + 907 = 16,047; United States 13,054 / 16,047 = 81%; 13,054 / consolidated 13,795 = 95%; outside the United States (1,255 + 831 + 907) / 16,047 = 19%; revenue 56,015 / 72,229 = 78% - segment and regional shares, margins and growth. — 2013-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in American Express's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, earnings releases and statistical supplements, Delta Air Lines' Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. Third-party estimateTwo of the four are unproven: the expense platform is in pilot, and the deposit relationship reaches about a tenth of U.S. card members.
    American Express second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (third-party transcript). — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAt the end of 2025 it said it had launched Dining Companion and was developing standards with partners to enable agent-driven commerce, and on the second-quarter call it listed agentic commerce among the uses for revenue ahead of plan.
    American Express fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - 2026 guidance and the dividend increase. — Q4 2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. Third-party estimateAt the end of 2025 it said it had launched Dining Companion and was developing standards with partners to enable agent-driven commerce, and on the second-quarter call it listed agentic commerce among the uses for revenue ahead of plan.
    American Express second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (third-party transcript). — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOperating cash flow was $18,428 million in 2025, and the company returned $7.6 billion to shareholders in the same year, so the bets are being funded alongside the buybacks rather than instead of them.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - capital, returns, funding, interest rate sensitivity, credit and share repurchases. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedOperating cash flow was $18,428 million in 2025, and the company returned $7.6 billion to shareholders in the same year, so the bets are being funded alongside the buybacks rather than instead of them.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - capital, returns, funding, interest rate sensitivity, credit and share repurchases. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedEarnings per share of at least $17.30, against $15.38 in 2025, would mean the bets were being paid for out of growth; a cut in the guidance while spending on the bets continued would mean the company was buying the future out of current returns.
    American Express Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - card metrics: billed business, spending per card, cards-in-force, fees per card and network volumes. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026