EVENITY: Growth Shared With UCBNarrow moat

Amgen (AMGN) — moat facet

EVENITY grew elevenfold in six years, but its profits are shared equally with UCB.

EVENITY is the fastest-growing bone drug Amgen sells, and half of its profit belongs to someone else. It builds bone in patients with severe osteoporosis. It sold $189 million in 2019 and $2,100 million in 202512, about 11 times3, and $714 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 38%4.

EVENITY sales ($M)189201953020211,16020231,56320242,1002025Amgen FY2020, FY2021, FY2023 and FY2025 results releases
Eleven times in six years.

Amgen developed EVENITY with UCB, and the 10-K is explicit about the terms: global development costs and commercialization profits and losses related to the collaboration are shared equally5. Amgen books the product sales and pays UCB its share as a cost. That is one reason the second-quarter 2026 release blames higher profit share expense, among other things, for a higher non-GAAP cost of sales, 19.6% of product sales against 17.7% a year earlier6.

EVENITY matters more as Prolia declines. Both treat osteoporosis in patients at high risk of fracture7, and as Prolia loses sales to biosimilars, EVENITY is the bone drug that still grows: in the second quarter of 2026 its increase was driven by volume growth8, while Prolia fell 32%9.

Its competitor, according to the 10-K, is Teribone from Asahi Kasei in Japan10. Elsewhere its position is strong.

Most of EVENITY's sales are American: $550 million of the $714 million in the second quarter of 202611. Prolia, the drug it partly replaces, was launched in 201012 and is now losing to copies; EVENITY is the bone drug Amgen will be selling in the 2030s.

The drug is a good business with a partner's hand in it. The figure to follow is EVENITY's growth rate, 38% in the second quarter of 202613; if it holds near that level while Prolia declines, Amgen's bone franchise survives the biosimilars, and if it falls below 15%, the bone business is shrinking.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Up 38% in Q2 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
EVENITY sales, latest quarter
$714M, +38% (Q2 2026)

Whether the bone franchise outgrows Prolia's decline; growth below 15% would mean it no longer does.

Source: Amgen Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
EVENITY's Antibody Patent Ended in April 2026
EVENITY's antibody patent expired in April 2026, leaving formulation and treatment patents to defend a $2.1 billion drug.
References
  1. ReportedIt sold $189 million in 2019 and $2,100 million in 2025, about 11 times, and $714 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 38%.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2019-2020. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt sold $189 million in 2019 and $2,100 million in 2025, about 11 times, and $714 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 38%.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2024-2025, non-GAAP EPS and 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 3 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcIt sold $189 million in 2019 and $2,100 million in 2025, about 11 times, and $714 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 38%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amgen's reported product sales and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Sales deductions: 2019 rebates 6,825 + chargebacks 7,090 + other 1,292 = 15,207; 2025 21,697 + 16,988 + 3,298 = 41,983; 41,983 / 35,148 = 1.19 times net product sales; implied gross product sales 35,148 + 41,983 = 77,131. Growth 2019-2025: deductions 41,983 / 15,207 = 2.76 times; net product sales 35,148 / 22,204 = 1.58 times (up 58%); rebates 21,697 / 6,825 = 3.18 times; chargebacks 16,988 / 7,090 = 2.4 times. Wholesalers 2025 gross: 26,253 + 20,986 + 12,562 = 59,801; 59,801 / 36,751 = 1.63 times total revenues; McKesson 26,253 / 36,751 = 71%. ENBREL: 2,226 / 5,433 - 1 = -59%; share of product sales 5,226 / 22,204 = 23.5% (2019), 2,226 / 35,148 = 6.3% (2025). ENBREL + Otezla 2025: 2,226 + 2,265 = 4,491; 4,491 / 36,751 = 12%. Otezla sales 2020-2025: 2,195 + 2,249 + 2,288 + 2,188 + 2,126 + 2,265 = 13,311; impairment 1,200 / 13,400 = 9%. Horizon products: 2023 448 + 272 + 65 + 164 = 949; 2024 1,851 + 1,185 + 379 + 758 = 4,173; 2025 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 719 = 4,617, 4,617 / 27,800 = 16.6%; Q2 2026 576 + 400 + 335 + 149 = 1,460, x4 = 5,840. TEPEZZA + KRYSTEXXA 2025 1,903 + 1,340 = 3,243; KRYSTEXXA 1,340 / 1,185 - 1 = 13.1%; TEPEZZA 1,903 / 1,851 - 1 = 2.8%; UPLIZNA 655 / 379 - 1 = 72.8%; H1 2026 262 + 335 = 597; ultra-rare 719 / 758 - 1 = -5.1%; UPLIZNA + ultra-rare 655 + 719 = 1,374. TAVNEOS H1 2026 119 + 150 = 269. Acquisitions: 13.4 + 3.9 + 27.8 = 45.1 bn; acquired products 2025 2,265 + 459 + 4,617 = 7,341, 7,341 / 36,751 = 20%. Interest 2,755 / 9,080 = 30%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 57.3 - 13.989 = 43.3 bn. Goodwill + intangibles 18,680 + 22,276 = 40,956, 40,956 / 90,586 = 45%. EPS gap 21.84 - 14.23 = 7.61. R&D 7,272 / 4,784 - 1 = 52%; 7,272 / 36,751 = 19.8%. Growth drivers 2025: Repatha 3,016 + EVENITY 2,100 + TEZSPIRE 1,478 + BLINCYTO 1,559 = 8,153 (2024: 2,222 + 1,563 + 972 + 1,216 = 5,973; 2023: 1,635 + 1,160 + 567 + 861 = 4,223; 2021: 1,117 + 530 + 0 + 472 = 2,119; 2019: 661 + 189 + 0 + 312 = 1,162); 8,153 / 5,973 - 1 = 36.5%, about 37%; 8,153 / 36,751 = 22%. Repatha 3,016 / 661 = 4.6 times, 3,016 / 2,222 - 1 = 36%; EVENITY 2,100 / 189 = 11 times; BLINCYTO 1,559 / 312 = 5.0 times. KYPROLIS 1,412 / 1,503 - 1 = -6%; KYPROLIS + Nplate 1,412 + 1,524 = 2,936, 2,936 / 6,660 = 44%; BLINCYTO + IMDELLTRA 1,559 + 627 = 2,186; Q2 2026 472 + 288 = 760. IMDELLTRA run rate 288 x 4 = 1,152, 1,152 / 6,498 = 18%. Biosimilars: 2025 AMJEVITA 597 + PAVBLU 700 + WEZLANA 273 + MVASI 771 + in other products 683 = 3,024; 3,024 / 35,148 = 8.6% of product sales; 3,024 / 36,751 = 8.2% of total revenues; PAVBLU 700 / 3,024 = 23%; AMJEVITA 597 / 761 - 1 = -22%; band 2022 1,831 / 2,177 - 1 = -16%; in other products 683 / 667 - 1 = 2%; WEZLANA and other biosimilars added (273 - 27) + (683 - 667) = 262; Q2 2026 155 + 287 + 61 + 153 + 199 = 855; Q2 2025 133 + 130 + 35 + 191 + 172 = 661; 855 / 661 - 1 = 29%; shares of total revenues 568 / 23,362 = 2.4% (2019), 2,177 / 25,979 = 8.4% (2021), 1,916 / 28,190 = 6.8% (2023). Bands 2025: general medicine and bone 3,016 + 2,100 + 4,414 + 2,084 = 11,614 (31.6%); inflammation and rare disease 2,226 + 2,265 + 1,478 + 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 459 + 719 = 11,045 (30.1%); oncology 1,559 + 627 + 1,175 + 1,412 + 363 + 1,524 = 6,660 (18.1%); biosimilars 3,024 (8.2%); established and other 1,389 + 435 + 353 + (1,311 - 683 = 628) + 1,603 = 4,408 (12.0%); total 36,751. 2019 bands 5,457; 5,404; 2,895; 568; 9,038; total 23,362. General medicine 11,614 / 5,457 = 2.1 times, 11,614 / 10,384 - 1 = 11.8%; inflammation 2020 7,191, 2024 10,870 / 7,535 - 1 = 44%, 2025 11,045 / 10,870 - 1 = 1.6%, non-ENBREL-Otezla 11,045 - 4,491 = 6,554; oncology 6,660 / 2,895 = 2.3 times, 6,660 / 5,685 - 1 = 17.2%; established 4,408 / 9,038 = 0.49. Q2 bands 2026 vs 2025: general medicine 953 + 714 + 759 + 352 = 2,778 vs 696 + 518 + 1,122 + 532 = 2,868, down 3%; Repatha + EVENITY 1,667 vs 1,214; denosumab 1,111 vs 1,654, down 33%; inflammation 3,167 vs 604 + 618 + 342 + 505 + 349 + 176 + 110 + 183 = 2,887, up 9.7%; oncology 1,953 vs 384 + 134 + 305 + 378 + 90 + 369 = 1,660, up 17.7%; established and other 632 + (351 - 199) + 517 = 1,301 vs 359 + 82 + 92 + (334 - 172) + 408 = 1,103, up 18%. Denosumab 2025 4,414 + 2,084 = 6,498, 6,498 / 36,751 = 17.7%; Q1 2026 727 + 411 = 1,138; H1 2026 1,486 + 763 = 2,249 vs 2,221 + 1,098 = 3,319. Neulasta 435 / 4,534 - 1 = -90%. Geography: US 25,656 / 35,148 = 73%; rest of world 9,492 / 35,148 = 27.0%; Q2 2026 2,547 / 9,537 = 26.7%; AMJEVITA 129 / 155 = 83.2%; Aranesp 258 / 352 = 73.3%; ENBREL 6 / 580 = 1.0%. Novartis-facing 2025 3,016 + 2,265 + 2,226 + 1,524 + 1,478 = 10,509, 10,509 / 36,751 = 29%. Other revenues 1,603 / 36,751 = 4.4%. Receivables 9,570 / 6,782 - 1 = 41%. Guidance midpoints: (37.0 + 38.4) / 2 = 37.7; (37.1 + 38.5) / 2 = 37.8; (38.2 + 39.4) / 2 = 38.8; non-GAAP EPS (22.30 + 23.50) / 2 = 22.90. IRS: 3.6 + 5.1 + 2.0 = 10.7 bn before interest; offsets 0.9 + 2.2 = 3.1 bn; 10.7 / 7.711 = 1.4 times 2025 net income; 10.7 / 224.15 = 4.8% of market value. Trailing free cash flow 8,100 - 2,891 + 4,966 = 10,175; 10,175 / 224,150 = 4.5%. Shares 538.8 / 629.6 - 1 = -14%. Gross margin (total revenues - cost of sales) / total revenues: (28,190 - 8,451) / 28,190 = 70.0% (2023); (33,424 - 12,858) / 33,424 = 61.5% (2024); (36,751 - 12,037) / 36,751 = 67.2% (2025). Pre-tax income 2025 7,711 + 1,265 = 8,976. Total revenues 36,751 / 21,662 = 1.70 times 2015. Market value 224.15 / 176.25 - 1 = 27% in 2026; added 224.15 - 176.25 = 47.9 bn against 176.25 - 122.45 = 53.8 bn in 2015-2025. Trailing net income 7,711 - 3,162 + 4,194 = 8,743; trailing revenue 36,751 - 17,328 + 18,672 = 38,095 - product and band totals, growth and sales deductions. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amgen's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedIt sold $189 million in 2019 and $2,100 million in 2025, about 11 times, and $714 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 38%.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: inflammation, rare disease and established products, and sales by region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAmgen developed EVENITY with UCB, and the 10-K is explicit about the terms: global development costs and commercialization profits and losses related to the collaboration are shared equally.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, collaborations, staff and pipeline. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThat is one reason the second-quarter 2026 release blames higher profit share expense, among other things, for a higher non-GAAP cost of sales, 19.6% of product sales against 17.7% a year earlier.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - financial results, margins, cash flow and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedBoth treat osteoporosis in patients at high risk of fracture, and as Prolia loses sales to biosimilars, EVENITY is the bone drug that still grows: in the second quarter of 2026 its increase was driven by volume growth, while Prolia fell 32%.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, collaborations, staff and pipeline. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedBoth treat osteoporosis in patients at high risk of fracture, and as Prolia loses sales to biosimilars, EVENITY is the bone drug that still grows: in the second quarter of 2026 its increase was driven by volume growth, while Prolia fell 32%.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: Repatha, EVENITY, Prolia and XGEVA. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedBoth treat osteoporosis in patients at high risk of fracture, and as Prolia loses sales to biosimilars, EVENITY is the bone drug that still grows: in the second quarter of 2026 its increase was driven by volume growth, while Prolia fell 32%.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: Repatha, EVENITY, Prolia and XGEVA. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIts competitor, according to the 10-K, is Teribone from Asahi Kasei in Japan.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 patents, biosimilars and competitors. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedMost of EVENITY's sales are American: $550 million of the $714 million in the second quarter of 2026.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: Repatha, EVENITY, Prolia and XGEVA. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedProlia, the drug it partly replaces, was launched in 2010 and is now losing to copies; EVENITY is the bone drug Amgen will be selling in the 2030s.
    Amgen Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, collaborations, staff and pipeline. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe figure to follow is EVENITY's growth rate, 38% in the second quarter of 2026; if it holds near that level while Prolia declines, Amgen's bone franchise survives the biosimilars, and if it falls below 15%, the bone business is shrinking.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: Repatha, EVENITY, Prolia and XGEVA. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026