MVASI and the Cancer BiosimilarsThin moat

Amgen (AMGN) — moat facet

MVASI and KANJINTI grew fast after launch and then shrank as rivals arrived, the normal life of a biosimilar.

MVASI and KANJINTI were Amgen's first big biosimilar successes, copies of Roche's cancer drugs Avastin and Herceptin. MVASI sold $127 million in 2019, $798 million in 2020 and $1,166 million in 202112. KANJINTI sold $226 million in 2019 and $572 million in 202134.

MVASI sales ($M)127201979820201,16620219012022800202372720247712025Amgen results releases FY2020-FY2025
Up fast, then a slow fade.

Then prices fell. MVASI fell to $901 million in 2022, $800 million in 2023, $727 million in 2024 and $771 million in 2025567. KANJINTI fell to $159 million in 20238, after which Amgen stopped reporting it separately.

These two show the life cycle of a biosimilar. A copy launched early into a large market grows quickly as hospitals switch to save money. As more copies arrive, prices fall and the early leader's sales shrink. MVASI's small rise in 2025 is unusual; the typical path is steady decline.

The cancer biosimilars still matter, but the decline has resumed. MVASI sold $153 million in the second quarter of 2026, down 20%, driven by 16% lower net selling price9.

The whole biosimilar band's history shows the pattern: it grew from $568 million in 2019 to $2,177 million in 2021, fell to $1,831 million in 2022 as the cancer copies declined, and recovered to $3,024 million by 2025 on new launches10. The number to follow is MVASI's annual sales; a return to decline of 10% a year would confirm that the cancer copies are in the long fade that KANJINTI completed.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

MVASI well below its 2021 peak; KANJINTI no longer reported.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
MVASI sales, latest quarter
$153M (Q2 2026)

The oldest large copy; a return to 10% annual declines would confirm the long fade.

Source: Amgen Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Biosimilars Hidden in Other Products
Amgen reports several biosimilars only as a total inside other products, and that total rose just 2% in 2025 despite a new launch.
References
  1. ReportedMVASI sold $127 million in 2019, $798 million in 2020 and $1,166 million in 2021.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2019-2020. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  2. ReportedMVASI sold $127 million in 2019, $798 million in 2020 and $1,166 million in 2021.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales and net income for 2020-2021. — FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  3. ReportedKANJINTI sold $226 million in 2019 and $572 million in 2021.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2019-2020. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  4. ReportedKANJINTI sold $226 million in 2019 and $572 million in 2021.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales and net income for 2020-2021. — FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMVASI fell to $901 million in 2022, $800 million in 2023, $727 million in 2024 and $771 million in 2025.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales and other revenues for 2021-2022. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  6. ReportedMVASI fell to $901 million in 2022, $800 million in 2023, $727 million in 2024 and $771 million in 2025.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2022-2023. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  7. ReportedMVASI fell to $901 million in 2022, $800 million in 2023, $727 million in 2024 and $771 million in 2025.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2024-2025, non-GAAP EPS and 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 3 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedKANJINTI fell to $159 million in 2023, after which Amgen stopped reporting it separately.
    Amgen fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales for 2022-2023. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  9. ReportedMVASI sold $153 million in the second quarter of 2026, down 20%, driven by 16% lower net selling price.
    Amgen second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - product sales performance: biosimilars. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcThe whole biosimilar band's history shows the pattern: it grew from $568 million in 2019 to $2,177 million in 2021, fell to $1,831 million in 2022 as the cancer copies declined, and recovered to $3,024 million by 2025 on new launches.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amgen's reported product sales and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Sales deductions: 2019 rebates 6,825 + chargebacks 7,090 + other 1,292 = 15,207; 2025 21,697 + 16,988 + 3,298 = 41,983; 41,983 / 35,148 = 1.19 times net product sales; implied gross product sales 35,148 + 41,983 = 77,131. Growth 2019-2025: deductions 41,983 / 15,207 = 2.76 times; net product sales 35,148 / 22,204 = 1.58 times (up 58%); rebates 21,697 / 6,825 = 3.18 times; chargebacks 16,988 / 7,090 = 2.4 times. Wholesalers 2025 gross: 26,253 + 20,986 + 12,562 = 59,801; 59,801 / 36,751 = 1.63 times total revenues; McKesson 26,253 / 36,751 = 71%. ENBREL: 2,226 / 5,433 - 1 = -59%; share of product sales 5,226 / 22,204 = 23.5% (2019), 2,226 / 35,148 = 6.3% (2025). ENBREL + Otezla 2025: 2,226 + 2,265 = 4,491; 4,491 / 36,751 = 12%. Otezla sales 2020-2025: 2,195 + 2,249 + 2,288 + 2,188 + 2,126 + 2,265 = 13,311; impairment 1,200 / 13,400 = 9%. Horizon products: 2023 448 + 272 + 65 + 164 = 949; 2024 1,851 + 1,185 + 379 + 758 = 4,173; 2025 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 719 = 4,617, 4,617 / 27,800 = 16.6%; Q2 2026 576 + 400 + 335 + 149 = 1,460, x4 = 5,840. TEPEZZA + KRYSTEXXA 2025 1,903 + 1,340 = 3,243; KRYSTEXXA 1,340 / 1,185 - 1 = 13.1%; TEPEZZA 1,903 / 1,851 - 1 = 2.8%; UPLIZNA 655 / 379 - 1 = 72.8%; H1 2026 262 + 335 = 597; ultra-rare 719 / 758 - 1 = -5.1%; UPLIZNA + ultra-rare 655 + 719 = 1,374. TAVNEOS H1 2026 119 + 150 = 269. Acquisitions: 13.4 + 3.9 + 27.8 = 45.1 bn; acquired products 2025 2,265 + 459 + 4,617 = 7,341, 7,341 / 36,751 = 20%. Interest 2,755 / 9,080 = 30%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 57.3 - 13.989 = 43.3 bn. Goodwill + intangibles 18,680 + 22,276 = 40,956, 40,956 / 90,586 = 45%. EPS gap 21.84 - 14.23 = 7.61. R&D 7,272 / 4,784 - 1 = 52%; 7,272 / 36,751 = 19.8%. Growth drivers 2025: Repatha 3,016 + EVENITY 2,100 + TEZSPIRE 1,478 + BLINCYTO 1,559 = 8,153 (2024: 2,222 + 1,563 + 972 + 1,216 = 5,973; 2023: 1,635 + 1,160 + 567 + 861 = 4,223; 2021: 1,117 + 530 + 0 + 472 = 2,119; 2019: 661 + 189 + 0 + 312 = 1,162); 8,153 / 5,973 - 1 = 36.5%, about 37%; 8,153 / 36,751 = 22%. Repatha 3,016 / 661 = 4.6 times, 3,016 / 2,222 - 1 = 36%; EVENITY 2,100 / 189 = 11 times; BLINCYTO 1,559 / 312 = 5.0 times. KYPROLIS 1,412 / 1,503 - 1 = -6%; KYPROLIS + Nplate 1,412 + 1,524 = 2,936, 2,936 / 6,660 = 44%; BLINCYTO + IMDELLTRA 1,559 + 627 = 2,186; Q2 2026 472 + 288 = 760. IMDELLTRA run rate 288 x 4 = 1,152, 1,152 / 6,498 = 18%. Biosimilars: 2025 AMJEVITA 597 + PAVBLU 700 + WEZLANA 273 + MVASI 771 + in other products 683 = 3,024; 3,024 / 35,148 = 8.6% of product sales; 3,024 / 36,751 = 8.2% of total revenues; PAVBLU 700 / 3,024 = 23%; AMJEVITA 597 / 761 - 1 = -22%; band 2022 1,831 / 2,177 - 1 = -16%; in other products 683 / 667 - 1 = 2%; WEZLANA and other biosimilars added (273 - 27) + (683 - 667) = 262; Q2 2026 155 + 287 + 61 + 153 + 199 = 855; Q2 2025 133 + 130 + 35 + 191 + 172 = 661; 855 / 661 - 1 = 29%; shares of total revenues 568 / 23,362 = 2.4% (2019), 2,177 / 25,979 = 8.4% (2021), 1,916 / 28,190 = 6.8% (2023). Bands 2025: general medicine and bone 3,016 + 2,100 + 4,414 + 2,084 = 11,614 (31.6%); inflammation and rare disease 2,226 + 2,265 + 1,478 + 1,903 + 1,340 + 655 + 459 + 719 = 11,045 (30.1%); oncology 1,559 + 627 + 1,175 + 1,412 + 363 + 1,524 = 6,660 (18.1%); biosimilars 3,024 (8.2%); established and other 1,389 + 435 + 353 + (1,311 - 683 = 628) + 1,603 = 4,408 (12.0%); total 36,751. 2019 bands 5,457; 5,404; 2,895; 568; 9,038; total 23,362. General medicine 11,614 / 5,457 = 2.1 times, 11,614 / 10,384 - 1 = 11.8%; inflammation 2020 7,191, 2024 10,870 / 7,535 - 1 = 44%, 2025 11,045 / 10,870 - 1 = 1.6%, non-ENBREL-Otezla 11,045 - 4,491 = 6,554; oncology 6,660 / 2,895 = 2.3 times, 6,660 / 5,685 - 1 = 17.2%; established 4,408 / 9,038 = 0.49. Q2 bands 2026 vs 2025: general medicine 953 + 714 + 759 + 352 = 2,778 vs 696 + 518 + 1,122 + 532 = 2,868, down 3%; Repatha + EVENITY 1,667 vs 1,214; denosumab 1,111 vs 1,654, down 33%; inflammation 3,167 vs 604 + 618 + 342 + 505 + 349 + 176 + 110 + 183 = 2,887, up 9.7%; oncology 1,953 vs 384 + 134 + 305 + 378 + 90 + 369 = 1,660, up 17.7%; established and other 632 + (351 - 199) + 517 = 1,301 vs 359 + 82 + 92 + (334 - 172) + 408 = 1,103, up 18%. Denosumab 2025 4,414 + 2,084 = 6,498, 6,498 / 36,751 = 17.7%; Q1 2026 727 + 411 = 1,138; H1 2026 1,486 + 763 = 2,249 vs 2,221 + 1,098 = 3,319. Neulasta 435 / 4,534 - 1 = -90%. Geography: US 25,656 / 35,148 = 73%; rest of world 9,492 / 35,148 = 27.0%; Q2 2026 2,547 / 9,537 = 26.7%; AMJEVITA 129 / 155 = 83.2%; Aranesp 258 / 352 = 73.3%; ENBREL 6 / 580 = 1.0%. Novartis-facing 2025 3,016 + 2,265 + 2,226 + 1,524 + 1,478 = 10,509, 10,509 / 36,751 = 29%. Other revenues 1,603 / 36,751 = 4.4%. Receivables 9,570 / 6,782 - 1 = 41%. Guidance midpoints: (37.0 + 38.4) / 2 = 37.7; (37.1 + 38.5) / 2 = 37.8; (38.2 + 39.4) / 2 = 38.8; non-GAAP EPS (22.30 + 23.50) / 2 = 22.90. IRS: 3.6 + 5.1 + 2.0 = 10.7 bn before interest; offsets 0.9 + 2.2 = 3.1 bn; 10.7 / 7.711 = 1.4 times 2025 net income; 10.7 / 224.15 = 4.8% of market value. Trailing free cash flow 8,100 - 2,891 + 4,966 = 10,175; 10,175 / 224,150 = 4.5%. Shares 538.8 / 629.6 - 1 = -14%. Gross margin (total revenues - cost of sales) / total revenues: (28,190 - 8,451) / 28,190 = 70.0% (2023); (33,424 - 12,858) / 33,424 = 61.5% (2024); (36,751 - 12,037) / 36,751 = 67.2% (2025). Pre-tax income 2025 7,711 + 1,265 = 8,976. Total revenues 36,751 / 21,662 = 1.70 times 2015. Market value 224.15 / 176.25 - 1 = 27% in 2026; added 224.15 - 176.25 = 47.9 bn against 176.25 - 122.45 = 53.8 bn in 2015-2025. Trailing net income 7,711 - 3,162 + 4,194 = 8,743; trailing revenue 36,751 - 17,328 + 18,672 = 38,095 - revenue bands, biosimilars and denosumab. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amgen's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026