⚠ Participants Fell as Assets RoseLow threat

Morgan Stanley (MS) — threat to the moat

Morgan Stanley's workplace plans lost participants in 2025 because it sold its European stock-plan business.

The workplace channel's assets grew in 2025 while its participant count fell, to 6.5 million from 6.6 million1. The firm gives the reason: the decline was "primarily as a result of the previously announced disposition of the Firm’s EMEA stock plan business"2.

Workplace participants (millions)6.6M20246.5M2025Morgan Stanley Form 10-K FY2025, Wealth Management metrics
Fewer people, more assets.

That is a deliberate exit, not a loss of clients. It still shows that the channel is being shaped for the American market. Morgan Stanley describes its Wealth Management segment as "primarily in the U.S."3.

The larger risk is conversion. A participant whose shares vest is under no obligation to stay, and the firm competes for that money with every broker and adviser in the country. The value of the pipeline depends on how much of it becomes advised assets, and that conversion rate is not a line in the filings used here.

The unvested total kept rising: stock plan unvested assets were $658 billion in June 20264. That is the value that will vest over time into accounts the firm administers, and it grew by about a quarter in six months5 with the shares of the companies whose plans it runs.

The participant count will be reported each year. A second year of decline without a disposal to explain it would say employers were taking their plans elsewhere.

References
  1. ReportedThe workplace channel's assets grew in 2025 while its participant count fell, to 6.5 million from 6.6 million.
    Morgan Stanley Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Wealth Management metrics: client assets, flows, channels, deposits and adviser loans. — FY2025 · publ. 19 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe firm gives the reason: the decline was "primarily as a result of the previously announced disposition of the Firm’s EMEA stock plan business".
    Morgan Stanley Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment results, revenue lines and regional net revenues. — FY2025 · publ. 19 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedMorgan Stanley describes its Wealth Management segment as "primarily in the U.S.".
    Morgan Stanley Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, competition and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 19 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe unvested total kept rising: stock plan unvested assets were $658 billion in June 2026.
    Morgan Stanley second-quarter 2026 financial supplement, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Wealth Management metrics, Investment Management assets under management and flows, regional revenues. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThat is the value that will vest over time into accounts the firm administers, and it grew by about a quarter in six months with the shares of the companies whose plans it runs.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Morgan Stanley's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Wealth Management: asset management revenue share 18,627 / 31,754 = 58.7%; net interest income share 7,911 / 31,754 = 24.9%. Client assets change 2025: 7,381 - 6,194 = 1,187 billion; net new assets 356.3 / 1,187 = 30%, so market and other changes 830.7 billion, about 70%. Fee-based share of advisor-led assets 2,347 / 4,758 = 49.3% (2024); 2,753 / 5,715 = 48.2% (2025); 3,022 / 6,273 = 48.2% (June 2026). Transactional revenue 2,473 / 4,259 - 1 = -42% (2022). Wealth Management pre-tax margins: 2015 3,332 / 15,100 = 22.1%; 2020 4,387 / 19,086 = 23.0%; 2021 6,181 / 24,243 = 25.5%; 2022 6,583 / 24,417 = 27.0%; 2023 6,530 / 26,268 = 24.9%; 2024 7,740 / 28,420 = 27.2%; 2025 9,293 / 31,754 = 29.3%. Wealth Management revenue growth (31,754 / 15,100)^(1/10) - 1 = 7.7% a year. Self-directed assets 1,667 / 1,437 - 1 = 16%; households 8.5 / 8.3 - 1 = 2.4%; daily average revenue trades 1,029 / 837 - 1 = 23% (2025) and 1,278 / 1,029 - 1 = 24% (Q2 2026); 1,278 / 759 = 1.68 since 2023. Wealth Management bank loans 181 / 146 - 1 = 24% (2022-2025). Balance sheet 2025: loans 289,038 / 246,814 - 1 = 17.1%; deposits 415,523 / 376,007 - 1 = 10.5%; borrowings 348,935 / 288,819 - 1 = 20.8%. Firm loans June 2026 315,653 / 289,038 - 1 = 9.2%; 315,653 / 246,814 - 1 = 28% since end-2024. Uninsured deposits 84,201 / 415,523 = 20.3%. Net new assets Q2 2026 excluding IPO-related inflows: just over half of 148.1 billion was IPO-related, so the rest is below 148.1 / 2 = 74.05 billion. Segments: sum of segment net revenues 2025 33,080 + 31,754 + 6,525 = 71,359, less firm net revenues 70,645 = 714 of eliminations; eliminations as reported each year 2015 213, 2016 290, 2017 290, 2018 463, 2019 467, 2020 539, 2021 541, 2022 517, 2023 555, 2024 600, 2025 714. Wealth and Investment Management share of segment revenue: 2015 (15,100 + 2,315) / 35,368 = 49.2%; 2023 (26,268 + 5,370) / 54,698 = 57.8%; 2025 (31,754 + 6,525) / 71,359 = 53.6%. Institutional Securities share of segment revenue 2025 33,080 / 71,359 = 46.4%. Share of firm pre-tax income 2025: Institutional Securities 11,237 / 21,954 = 51.2%; Wealth Management 9,293 / 21,954 = 42.3%; Investment Management 1,478 / 21,954 = 6.7%. Share of segment pre-tax income: 2021 Institutional Securities 11,814 / (11,814 + 6,181 + 1,678) = 11,814 / 19,673 = 60.1%; 2023 4,476 / 11,848 = 37.8%, Wealth and Investment Management 6,530 + 842 = 7,372 = 62.2%; 2025 Institutional Securities 11,237 / 22,008 = 51.1%, Wealth and Investment Management 10,771 / 22,008 = 48.9%; 2015 Wealth and Investment Management (3,332 + 492) / 8,495 = 45.0%. Q2 2026 Institutional Securities 4,262 / 7,348 = 58.0%; revenue 11,040 / 7,643 - 1 = 44%. Institutional Securities pre-tax margins: 2015 4,671 / 17,953 = 26.0%; 2021 11,814 / 29,833 = 39.6%; 2022 6,715 / 24,393 = 27.5%; 2023 4,476 / 23,060 = 19.4%; 2024 8,749 / 28,080 = 31.2%; 2025 11,237 / 33,080 = 34.0%; growth (33,080 / 17,953)^(1/10) - 1 = 6.3% a year. Equity 15,631 / 9,986 - 1 = 57% (2023-2025); 15,631 / 12,230 - 1 = 27.8% (2025); 15,631 / 70,645 = 22.1% of firm; 15,631 / 33,080 = 47.3% of segment. Fixed income 8,716 / 8,418 - 1 = 3.5%; 8,716 / 33,080 = 26.3% of segment. Equity underwriting 851 / 4,437 - 1 = -81% (2022). Investment Management margins: 2021 1,678 / 6,220 = 27.0%; 2023 842 / 5,370 = 15.7%; 2025 1,478 / 6,525 = 22.7%; fees 6,068 / 5,231 - 1 = 16% (2023-2025); Parametric 524 / 336 - 1 = 56%. Regions: Asia 9,420 / 6,434 - 1 = 46%; Asia 9,420 / 70,645 = 13.3% (2025); 6,434 / 54,143 = 11.9% (2023); Americas 52,897 / 70,645 = 74.9% (2025); Q2 2026 Americas 15,046 / 21,348 = 70.5%, Asia 3,930 / 21,348 = 18.4%. Capital and valuation: CET1 excess 14.8% - 11.8% = 3.0 points (June 2026). Goodwill and intangibles 16,726 + 6,010 = 22,736. Acquisitions 11.9 + 8.7 = 20.6 billion. Compensation 29,216 / 48,342 = 60.4% of non-interest expenses; 29,216 / 26,178 - 1 = 11.6%. Dividends per share 3.85 / 0.55 = 7.0 times. Payout 2025 (6,147 + 4,585) / 16,249 = 66%. Buyback price 197.64 / 85.35 = 2.3 times. Total assets 1,675,057 / 1,215,071 - 1 = 37.9% (end-2024 to June 2026); common equity 106,579 / 94,761 - 1 = 12.5%. MUFG stake 380,010,887 shares x $196.31 = about $74.6 billion. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net revenues 70,645 - 34,531 + 41,928 = 78,042; net income 16,861 - 7,854 + 11,148 = 20,155; diluted EPS 10.21 - 4.73 + 6.90 = 12.38. P/E = market value / net income: 2023 153.05 / 9.087 = 16.8; 2024 202.54 / 13.390 = 15.1; 2025 282.15 / 16.861 = 16.7; September 2026 308.32 / 20.155 = 15.3; price to sales 308.32 / 78.042 = 3.95. Revenue growth (70,645 / 35,155)^(1/10) - 1 = 7.2% a year. Wealth Management 2025: revenue 31,754 / 28,420 - 1 = 11.7%, pre-tax income 9,293 / 7,740 - 1 = 20.1%; bank loans 181 / 160 - 1 = 13.1%, deposits 408 / 370 - 1 = 10.3%; stock plan unvested 658 / 534 - 1 = 23% (six months). Investment banking 7,619 / 10,272 - 1 = -26% (2025 vs 2021). Tangible book value per share 50.00 / 44.57 - 1 = 12.2%. Non-compensation expenses 19,126 / 17,723 - 1 = 7.9%; net revenues 70,645 / 61,761 - 1 = 14.4%. Revenue per employee 70,645 / 83,000 = about 0.85 million. Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street 6.9% + 5.7% + 7.2% = 19.8% of the stock. Diluted EPS growth (10.21 / 2.90)^(1/10) - 1 = 13.4% a year. Q2 2026 Institutional Securities share of segment revenue 11,040 / (11,040 + 8,856 + 1,646) = 11,040 / 21,542 = 51.2%. First half 2026: Institutional Securities pre-tax income 8,423 / 5,392 - 1 = 56%, share of firm pre-tax income 8,423 / 14,359 = 58.7% (H1 2025 5,392 / 10,166 = 53.0%); Wealth Management pre-tax income 5,288 / 4,151 - 1 = 27%. Q2 2026 Wealth Management revenue 8,856 / 7,764 - 1 = 14%; asset management revenue 5,261 / 4,411 - 1 = 19%; firm revenue 21,348 / 16,792 - 1 = 27%; headcount 82,944 / 80,393 - 1 = 3.2%. Investment Management pre-tax income (1,478 - 870) / 8,700 = 7.0% of the Eaton Vance price. Net income 16,861 / 6,127 - 1 = 175%; shareholders equity 111,632 / 75,182 - 1 = 48%. Self-directed plus stock plan unvested assets June 2026 1,811 + 658 = 2,469 billion. Average diluted shares 1,592 / 1,646 - 1 = -3.3%. Total client assets 9,276 / 7,860 - 1 = 18%. Market value 308.32 / 153.05 = 2.0 times (end-2023 to September 2026). 2023 charges 249 + 353 + 293 = 895. Net income 9,087 / 15,034 - 1 = -40% (2021-2023). Borrowings 348,935 / 288,819 - 1 = 21%. Loans to deposits 289,038 / 415,523 = 70%. Compensation 29,216 / 70,645 = 41% of net revenues (2025). Net new assets 2025 quarterly average 356.3 / 4 = 89.1 billion. Forecast extrapolation: 2026 revenue 41,928 x 2 = 83,856; 2026 EPS 196.31 / 15.14 = 12.97; 2027 83.9 x 1.072 = 89.9 and 12.97 x 1.072 = 13.90; 2028 96.4 and 14.90 - capital, valuation, payouts and trailing figures. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Morgan Stanley's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, earnings releases and financial supplements, the 2026 proxy statement and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026