⚠ Returns Tied to Cash, Not to PriceModerate threat

KLA (KLAC) — threat to the moat

KLA returns a fixed share of its cash, so it bought most heavily when its shares were at 81 times earnings.

1. ReportedIt raised its target to "over 90% of free cash flow" in spring 2026, and approved a $7.00 billion increase in the buyback authorisation on 11 March 2026.
   The Motley Fool, KLA Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - process control share, advanced packaging, the 2030 financial model, capital allocation, China and memory; per-share figures before the split - the 2030 financial model and capital allocation target. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 29 April 2026 · source ↗
2. ReportedIt raised its target to "over 90% of free cash flow" in spring 2026, and approved a $7.00 billion increase in the buyback authorisation on 11 March 2026.
   KLA Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - financial statements and notes: backlog, contract liabilities, receivables, cash flow, capital returns and debt. — FY2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
3. ReportedAt the fiscal year-end the market value was $394.1 billion, 81.58 times earnings.
   KLA ratios by fiscal year - market capitalisation, P/E and P/S at fiscal year-ends 2022-2026 (FY2026: $394,116M, 81.58 times earnings, last close $301.37). — FY2022-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
4. ReportedBy 25 September 2026 it was $245.24 billion.
   KLA (KLAC) market data - $187.92 a share at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $245.24B, trailing P/E 51.34, forward P/E 34.45, 52-week range 98.10-307.37, dividend $0.92 (0.49%), 29 analysts with a price target of $233.77, estimated earnings date 28 October 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
5. Moat Explorer calc$9.74 billion is about 4% of the market value, and at fiscal 2026's pace of $2,289.8 million a year it would take about four years to use.
   Moat Explorer calculation from KLA's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end on 30 June; per-share figures adjusted for the ten-for-one split of June 2026). Revenue growth: FY2022 9,211.9 / 6,918.7 - 1 = +33.1%; FY2023 10,496.1 / 9,211.9 - 1 = +13.9%; FY2024 9,812.2 / 10,496.1 - 1 = -6.5%, the only decline FY2015-FY2026; FY2025 12,156.2 / 9,812.2 - 1 = +23.9%; FY2026 13,579.5 / 12,156.2 - 1 = +11.7%; FY2015-FY2026 13,579.5 / 2,814.0 = 4.8 times, 15.4% a year; FY2026 against FY2023 13,579.5 / 10,496.1 - 1 = +29%. Net income FY2024 2,761.9 / 3,387.3 - 1 = -18.5%, a fall of 625.4, of which the 289.5 impairment is 46%; net margin 4,830.8 / 13,579.5 = 35.6%; Other FY2023 381.1 / 259.4 - 1 = +46.9%; gross margin 1,598.8 / 2,814.0 = 56.8% (FY2015), 2,699.5 / 4,568.9 = 59.1% (FY2019); FY2026 4,830.8 / 4,061.6 - 1 = +18.9%; FY2015-FY2026 4,830.8 / 366.2 = 13.2 times; EPS 3.66 / 0.224 = 16.3 times. Operating income (no line reported): gross profit 8,324.4 - R&D 1,532.1 - SG&A 1,131.5 = 5,660.8 (FY2026), 5,660.8 / 13,579.5 = 41.7%; interest cover 5,660.8 / 284.4 = about 20 times. Segments FY2026: Semiconductor Process Control 12,244.7 / 13,579.5 = 90.2% of revenue; segment gross profit 12,244.7 - 4,453.6 = 7,791.1, 7,791.1 / 12,244.7 = 63.6%; segment profit 5,482.8 / 12,244.7 = 44.8%; 5,482.8 / 5,655.4 = 96.9% of segment profit; Specialty Semiconductor Process 64.6 / 584.1 = 11.1%, gross 278.8 / 584.1 = 47.7% (FY2021 206.7 / 369.2 = 56.0%); PCB and Component Inspection 108.0 / 750.4 = 14.4%, gross 385.3 / 750.4 = 51.3% (FY2024 159.0 / 552.5 = 28.8%); smaller segments 64.6 + 108.0 = 172.6; SSP segment gross margin FY2022 242.5 / 456.6 = 53.1%, FY2023 281.9 / 543.4 = 51.9%, FY2024 282.9 / 528.7 = 53.5%, FY2025 303.9 / 587.1 = 51.8%; Orbotech segments revenue less product categories 1,334.5 - (502.5 + 460.3) = 371.7; process control share of research 1,341.3 / 1,532.1 = 87.5%, almost nine-tenths; SG&A 1,131.5 / 13,579.5 = 8.3%; segment revenue 584.1 + 750.4 = 1,334.5. Process control segment research 1,341.3 / 12,244.7 = 11%; segment revenue growth 12,244.7 / 10,947.4 - 1 = +11.9%; SSP products 502.5 / 584.1 = 86% of segment revenue, research 59.4 / 584.1 = 10%; PCI Q4 241.1 / 750.4 = 32% of the year; process control lines FY2019 (1,630.9 + 1,161.3) / 4,568.9 = 61.1%; patterning within process control lines 2,791.1 / (4,336.7 + 2,791.1) = 39.2% (FY2023), 2,706.8 / (6,630.8 + 2,706.8) = 29.0% (FY2026); services share FY2019 1,176.7 / 4,568.9 = 25.8%; capital spending 375.9 / 45.8 = 8.2 times; peers 656.33 + 393.13 + 383.87 = 1,433.3, 1,433.3 / 245.24 = 5.8 times; FY2015 customers 15 + 12 + 11 = 38%. Process control segment gross margin FY2018 2,554.2 / 3,944.0 = 64.8%; FY2019 2,590.4 / 4,080.8 = 63.5%; FY2020 3,028.2 / 4,745.4 = 63.8%; FY2021 3,705.2 / 5,734.8 = 64.6%; FY2022 5,167.7 / 7,924.8 = 65.2%; FY2023 5,957.6 / 9,324.2 = 63.9%; FY2024 5,629.3 / 8,733.6 = 64.5%; FY2025 7,024.6 / 10,947.4 = 64.2%. Process control revenue FY2024 8,733.6 / 9,324.2 - 1 = -6.3%. Orbotech-related goodwill impairments 256.6 + 289.5 + 239.1 = 785.2. Research: 1,532.1 / 530.6 = 2.9 times; 530.6 / 2,814.0 = 18.9% (FY2015); 526.7 / 3,480.0 = 15.1% (FY2017); 711.0 / 4,568.9 = 15.6% (FY2019); 928.5 / 6,918.7 = 13.4% (FY2021); 1,296.7 / 10,496.1 = 12.4% (FY2023); 1,279.0 / 9,812.2 = 13.0% (FY2024); 1,532.1 / 13,579.5 = 11.3% (FY2026); FY2016 481.3 against 530.6 and FY2024 1,279.0 / 1,296.7 - 1 = -1.4%; research staff 27% x 17,000 = about 4,600. Product categories (FY2019-FY2026): wafer inspection 6,630.8 / 1,630.9 = 4.1 times, 22.2% a year; FY2025 6,198.8 / 4,333.3 - 1 = +43.1%; FY2026 6,630.8 / 6,198.8 - 1 = +7.0%; share 1,630.9 / 4,568.9 = 35.7% (FY2019), 6,198.8 / 12,156.2 = 51.0% (FY2025), 6,630.8 / 13,579.5 = 48.8% (FY2026). Patterning 2,706.8 / 1,161.3 = 2.3 times, 12.9% a year; FY2022 2,050.0 / 1,506.0 - 1 = +36.1%; FY2023 2,791.1 / 2,050.0 - 1 = +36.2%; FY2024 2,054.4 / 2,791.1 - 1 = -26.4%; FY2025 2,196.3 / 2,054.4 - 1 = +6.9%; FY2026 2,706.8 / 2,196.3 - 1 = +23.2%; share 2,791.1 / 10,496.1 = 26.6% (FY2023), 2,196.3 / 12,156.2 = 18.1% (FY2025), 2,706.8 / 13,579.5 = 19.9% (FY2026); process control lines 48.8 + 19.9 = 68.7%. SSP products 502.5 / 13,579.5 = 3.7%. PCI products 460.3 / 13,579.5 = 3.4%; FY2025 355.9 / 291.2 - 1 = +22.2%; FY2026 460.3 / 355.9 - 1 = +29.3%. Services 3,125.9 / 1,176.7 = 2.7 times, (3,125.9 / 1,176.7) ^ (1/7) - 1 = 15.0% a year; growth FY2020 +25.6%, FY2021 +13.6%, FY2022 +13.8%, FY2023 +10.8%, FY2024 2,329.6 / 2,117.0 - 1 = +10.0%, FY2025 +15.2%, FY2026 3,125.9 / 2,683.3 - 1 = +16.5%; FY2024 increase 2,329.6 - 2,117.0 = 212.6; share 2,117.0 / 10,496.1 = 20.2% (FY2023), 2,329.6 / 9,812.2 = 23.7% (FY2024), 3,125.9 / 13,579.5 = 23.0% (FY2026). Product revenue FY2023 10,496.1 - 2,117.0 = 8,379.1; FY2024 fall 8,379.1 - 7,482.7 = 896.4. A one-third fall in product revenue 10,453.5 / 3 = 3,484.5 against a year of 15% service growth 3,125.9 x 0.15 = 469, less than a seventh. Other 153.1 / 381.1 - 1 = -60%; 153.1 / 13,579.5 = 1.1%; FY2024 333.2 / 381.1 - 1 = -12.6%; FY2025 204.6 / 333.2 - 1 = -38.6%; FY2026 153.1 / 204.6 - 1 = -25.2%. Deferred system and service revenue 932.9 + 604.1 + 238.1 = 1,775.1, about $1.8 billion. Unrecognised contract price 1,775.1 / 3,125.9 x 12 = about 7 months of service revenue. Region: Taiwan FY2024 1,738.1 / 2,493.4 - 1 = -30.3%; FY2026 against FY2024 3,643.7 / 1,738.1 - 1 = +110%; FY2025 3,205.4 / 1,738.1 - 1 = +84.4%; FY2023 2,493.4 / 2,528.5 - 1 = -1.4%. Korea FY2019 584.1 / 1,178.6 - 1 = -50%; FY2024 906.9 / 1,895.7 - 1 = -52%; share 1,178.6 / 4,036.7 = 29.2% (FY2018), 584.1 / 4,568.9 = 12.8% (FY2019), 1,895.7 / 10,496.1 = 18.1% (FY2023), 906.9 / 9,812.2 = 9.2% (FY2024), 1,833.8 / 13,579.5 = 13.5% (FY2026). China FY2025 4,042.6 / 4,196.7 - 1 = -3.7%; FY2026 4,048.4 / 4,042.6 - 1 = +0.1%; China plus Taiwan 29.8% + 26.8% = 56.6%; Q4 FY2026 China 4,048.4 - 3,091.6 = 956.7, 956.7 / 3,657.6 = 26.2%. Backlog 12,570 / 7,860 - 1 = +59.9%; 12,570 / 13,579.5 = 93% of revenue; unrecognised contract price 1,775.1 / 12,570 = 14% of backlog. Advanced packaging about 1,000 / 13,579.5 = about 7% of revenue. Quarter: Q4 FY2026 revenue 3,657.6 / 3,174.7 - 1 = +15.2%; 3,657.6 / 3,415.1 - 1 = +7.1%; service 820.4 / 702.6 - 1 = +16.8%; process control 3,256.8 / 2,877.6 - 1 = +13.2%; PCB and Component Inspection 241.1 / 154.1 - 1 = +56.5%; GAAP gross margin (3,657.6 - 1,413.1) / 3,657.6 = 61.4%. Guidance midpoint 4,000 / 3,209.7 - 1 = +24.6%; 4,000 / 3,657.6 - 1 = +9.4%. Consensus fiscal 2027 18,110 / 13,579.5 - 1 = +33.4%; EPS 5.45 / 3.66 - 1 = +49%. The 2030 model at 13% a year: 13,579.5 x 1.13 ^ 2 = 17,340 (FY2028); 13,579.5 x 1.13 ^ 5 = about 25,000 (FY2031). Cash and capital: free cash flow 4,143.1 - 375.9 = 3,767.1; capital returns 2,289.8 + 1,057.8 = 3,347.6, 3,347.6 / 3,767.1 = 88.9%; dividends 1,057.8 / 4,830.8 = 21.9% of net income; buybacks 2,289.8 / 1,057.8 = 2.2 times dividends; capital spending 375.9 / 13,579.5 = 2.8% of revenue; operating cash flow 3,308.6 / 2,761.9 = 120% (FY2024), 4,081.9 / 4,061.6 = 100% (FY2025), 4,143.1 / 4,830.8 = 86% (FY2026); operating cash flow growth 4,143.1 / 4,081.9 - 1 = +1.5%; net income less operating cash flow 4,830.8 - 4,143.1 = 687.7; receivables 2,889.2 / 2,263.9 - 1 = +27.6%, an increase of 625.3; inventories 3,648.5 - 3,212.1 = 436.4; together 1,061.7. FY2015 dividends paid 3,041.1 / 366.2 = 8.3 times net income. Buybacks FY2015-FY2026 602.9 + 181.7 + 25.0 + 203.2 + 1,095.2 + 829.1 + 938.6 + 3,967.8 + 1,311.9 + 1,735.7 + 2,149.9 + 2,289.8 = 15,330.8; dividends paid 3,041.1 + 346.3 + 344.0 + 402.1 + 472.3 + 522.4 + 559.4 + 638.5 + 732.6 + 773.0 + 904.6 + 1,057.8 = 9,794.1. Diluted shares 1,319.6 / 1,637.0 - 1 = -19.4%. Net debt 5,887.4 - 1,649.8 - 3,252.6 = 985.0 (FY2026); 5,884.3 - 2,078.9 - 2,415.7 = 1,389.7 (FY2025); 6,630.1 - 1,977.1 - 2,526.9 = 2,126.1 (FY2024); 985.0 / 3,767.1 = 26% of free cash flow. Return on equity 4,830.8 / ((4,692.5 + 6,349.8) / 2 = 5,521.2) = 87.5%; FY2025 4,061.6 / ((3,368.3 + 4,692.5) / 2) = 100.8%; FY2024 2,761.9 / ((2,919.8 + 3,368.3) / 2) = 87.9%. Buyback authorisation 9,740 / 245,240 = 4%; 9,740 / (0.9 x 3,767.1) = 2.9 years; 9,740 / 571.0 = 17 quarters. Valuation: market value 245,240 / 383,870 = 0.64 (Applied Materials); 656,330 / 245,240 = 2.7 (ASML); 245,240 / 14,050 = 17.5 (Onto Innovation); 393,130 / 245,240 = 1.6 (Lam Research); 245,240 / 394,116 - 1 = -38% (June to September 2026); 394,116 / 118,454 = 3.3 times (June 2025 to June 2026); price 187.92 / 307.37 - 1 = -38.9%; 187.92 / 227.35 - 1 = -17% (June buyback price); 227.35 / 187.92 = 1.21 (21% more shares); free cash flow yield 3,767.1 / 245,240 = 1.5%; research 1,532.1 / 245,240 = 0.6% of KLA market value and 1,532.1 / 14,050 = 10.9%, about a ninth, of Onto Innovation's; revenue 13,579.5 / Lam Research 23,232.7 = 58%; market value 245,240 / 393,130 = 62%; buybacks 2,289.8 / 187.92 = 12.2 million shares at the September price, 12.2 / 1,319.6 = 0.9%; authorisation 9,740 / 2,289.8 = 4.3 years at the fiscal 2026 pace; P/E 245,240 / 4,830.8 = 50.8; P/S 245,240 / 13,579.5 = 18.1. Gross margin gap 61.3% less Lam Research about 50% = about 11 points - cash flow, capital returns, balance sheet, per-share figures and valuation. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in KLA's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, quarterly results releases, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
6. Reported$9.74 billion is about 4% of the market value, and at fiscal 2026's pace of $2,289.8 million a year it would take about four years to use.
   KLA Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - Item 1 business: products, history, competitors, customers and employees. — FY2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
7. ReportedKLA repurchased $3,967.8 million of stock in fiscal 2022, when its fiscal year-end market value was about $47.6 billion and its earnings multiple 14.34.
   SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts for KLA (CIK 319201) - revenue, cost of revenue, research and development, net income, diluted EPS and shares, operating cash flow, capital spending, buybacks, dividends, goodwill and equity for fiscal 2015-2026; per-share figures before fiscal 2024 are pre-split. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
8. ReportedKLA repurchased $3,967.8 million of stock in fiscal 2022, when its fiscal year-end market value was about $47.6 billion and its earnings multiple 14.34.
   KLA ratios by fiscal year - market capitalisation, P/E and P/S at fiscal year-ends 2022-2026 (FY2026: $394,116M, 81.58 times earnings, last close $301.37). — FY2022-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
9. ReportedThose purchases bought far more of the company per dollar than fiscal 2026's, made when the year-end multiple was 81.58.
   KLA ratios by fiscal year - market capitalisation, P/E and P/S at fiscal year-ends 2022-2026 (FY2026: $394,116M, 81.58 times earnings, last close $301.37). — FY2022-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
10. ReportedDividends follow the same rule on a smaller scale: KLA paid $1,057.8 million of them in fiscal 2026, whatever the share price did.
    KLA Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - Item 1 business: products, history, competitors, customers and employees. — FY2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
11. ReportedKLA has $9.74 billion of authorisation left, about 4% of its market value.
    KLA Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - Item 1 business: products, history, competitors, customers and employees. — FY2026 · publ. 6 August 2026 · source ↗
12. Moat Explorer calcKLA has $9.74 billion of authorisation left, about 4% of its market value.
    Moat Explorer calculation from KLA's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end on 30 June; per-share figures adjusted for the ten-for-one split of June 2026). Revenue growth: FY2022 9,211.9 / 6,918.7 - 1 = +33.1%; FY2023 10,496.1 / 9,211.9 - 1 = +13.9%; FY2024 9,812.2 / 10,496.1 - 1 = -6.5%, the only decline FY2015-FY2026; FY2025 12,156.2 / 9,812.2 - 1 = +23.9%; FY2026 13,579.5 / 12,156.2 - 1 = +11.7%; FY2015-FY2026 13,579.5 / 2,814.0 = 4.8 times, 15.4% a year; FY2026 against FY2023 13,579.5 / 10,496.1 - 1 = +29%. Net income FY2024 2,761.9 / 3,387.3 - 1 = -18.5%, a fall of 625.4, of which the 289.5 impairment is 46%; net margin 4,830.8 / 13,579.5 = 35.6%; Other FY2023 381.1 / 259.4 - 1 = +46.9%; gross margin 1,598.8 / 2,814.0 = 56.8% (FY2015), 2,699.5 / 4,568.9 = 59.1% (FY2019); FY2026 4,830.8 / 4,061.6 - 1 = +18.9%; FY2015-FY2026 4,830.8 / 366.2 = 13.2 times; EPS 3.66 / 0.224 = 16.3 times. Operating income (no line reported): gross profit 8,324.4 - R&D 1,532.1 - SG&A 1,131.5 = 5,660.8 (FY2026), 5,660.8 / 13,579.5 = 41.7%; interest cover 5,660.8 / 284.4 = about 20 times. Segments FY2026: Semiconductor Process Control 12,244.7 / 13,579.5 = 90.2% of revenue; segment gross profit 12,244.7 - 4,453.6 = 7,791.1, 7,791.1 / 12,244.7 = 63.6%; segment profit 5,482.8 / 12,244.7 = 44.8%; 5,482.8 / 5,655.4 = 96.9% of segment profit; Specialty Semiconductor Process 64.6 / 584.1 = 11.1%, gross 278.8 / 584.1 = 47.7% (FY2021 206.7 / 369.2 = 56.0%); PCB and Component Inspection 108.0 / 750.4 = 14.4%, gross 385.3 / 750.4 = 51.3% (FY2024 159.0 / 552.5 = 28.8%); smaller segments 64.6 + 108.0 = 172.6; SSP segment gross margin FY2022 242.5 / 456.6 = 53.1%, FY2023 281.9 / 543.4 = 51.9%, FY2024 282.9 / 528.7 = 53.5%, FY2025 303.9 / 587.1 = 51.8%; Orbotech segments revenue less product categories 1,334.5 - (502.5 + 460.3) = 371.7; process control share of research 1,341.3 / 1,532.1 = 87.5%, almost nine-tenths; SG&A 1,131.5 / 13,579.5 = 8.3%; segment revenue 584.1 + 750.4 = 1,334.5. Process control segment research 1,341.3 / 12,244.7 = 11%; segment revenue growth 12,244.7 / 10,947.4 - 1 = +11.9%; SSP products 502.5 / 584.1 = 86% of segment revenue, research 59.4 / 584.1 = 10%; PCI Q4 241.1 / 750.4 = 32% of the year; process control lines FY2019 (1,630.9 + 1,161.3) / 4,568.9 = 61.1%; patterning within process control lines 2,791.1 / (4,336.7 + 2,791.1) = 39.2% (FY2023), 2,706.8 / (6,630.8 + 2,706.8) = 29.0% (FY2026); services share FY2019 1,176.7 / 4,568.9 = 25.8%; capital spending 375.9 / 45.8 = 8.2 times; peers 656.33 + 393.13 + 383.87 = 1,433.3, 1,433.3 / 245.24 = 5.8 times; FY2015 customers 15 + 12 + 11 = 38%. Process control segment gross margin FY2018 2,554.2 / 3,944.0 = 64.8%; FY2019 2,590.4 / 4,080.8 = 63.5%; FY2020 3,028.2 / 4,745.4 = 63.8%; FY2021 3,705.2 / 5,734.8 = 64.6%; FY2022 5,167.7 / 7,924.8 = 65.2%; FY2023 5,957.6 / 9,324.2 = 63.9%; FY2024 5,629.3 / 8,733.6 = 64.5%; FY2025 7,024.6 / 10,947.4 = 64.2%. Process control revenue FY2024 8,733.6 / 9,324.2 - 1 = -6.3%. Orbotech-related goodwill impairments 256.6 + 289.5 + 239.1 = 785.2. Research: 1,532.1 / 530.6 = 2.9 times; 530.6 / 2,814.0 = 18.9% (FY2015); 526.7 / 3,480.0 = 15.1% (FY2017); 711.0 / 4,568.9 = 15.6% (FY2019); 928.5 / 6,918.7 = 13.4% (FY2021); 1,296.7 / 10,496.1 = 12.4% (FY2023); 1,279.0 / 9,812.2 = 13.0% (FY2024); 1,532.1 / 13,579.5 = 11.3% (FY2026); FY2016 481.3 against 530.6 and FY2024 1,279.0 / 1,296.7 - 1 = -1.4%; research staff 27% x 17,000 = about 4,600. Product categories (FY2019-FY2026): wafer inspection 6,630.8 / 1,630.9 = 4.1 times, 22.2% a year; FY2025 6,198.8 / 4,333.3 - 1 = +43.1%; FY2026 6,630.8 / 6,198.8 - 1 = +7.0%; share 1,630.9 / 4,568.9 = 35.7% (FY2019), 6,198.8 / 12,156.2 = 51.0% (FY2025), 6,630.8 / 13,579.5 = 48.8% (FY2026). Patterning 2,706.8 / 1,161.3 = 2.3 times, 12.9% a year; FY2022 2,050.0 / 1,506.0 - 1 = +36.1%; FY2023 2,791.1 / 2,050.0 - 1 = +36.2%; FY2024 2,054.4 / 2,791.1 - 1 = -26.4%; FY2025 2,196.3 / 2,054.4 - 1 = +6.9%; FY2026 2,706.8 / 2,196.3 - 1 = +23.2%; share 2,791.1 / 10,496.1 = 26.6% (FY2023), 2,196.3 / 12,156.2 = 18.1% (FY2025), 2,706.8 / 13,579.5 = 19.9% (FY2026); process control lines 48.8 + 19.9 = 68.7%. SSP products 502.5 / 13,579.5 = 3.7%. PCI products 460.3 / 13,579.5 = 3.4%; FY2025 355.9 / 291.2 - 1 = +22.2%; FY2026 460.3 / 355.9 - 1 = +29.3%. Services 3,125.9 / 1,176.7 = 2.7 times, (3,125.9 / 1,176.7) ^ (1/7) - 1 = 15.0% a year; growth FY2020 +25.6%, FY2021 +13.6%, FY2022 +13.8%, FY2023 +10.8%, FY2024 2,329.6 / 2,117.0 - 1 = +10.0%, FY2025 +15.2%, FY2026 3,125.9 / 2,683.3 - 1 = +16.5%; FY2024 increase 2,329.6 - 2,117.0 = 212.6; share 2,117.0 / 10,496.1 = 20.2% (FY2023), 2,329.6 / 9,812.2 = 23.7% (FY2024), 3,125.9 / 13,579.5 = 23.0% (FY2026). Product revenue FY2023 10,496.1 - 2,117.0 = 8,379.1; FY2024 fall 8,379.1 - 7,482.7 = 896.4. A one-third fall in product revenue 10,453.5 / 3 = 3,484.5 against a year of 15% service growth 3,125.9 x 0.15 = 469, less than a seventh. Other 153.1 / 381.1 - 1 = -60%; 153.1 / 13,579.5 = 1.1%; FY2024 333.2 / 381.1 - 1 = -12.6%; FY2025 204.6 / 333.2 - 1 = -38.6%; FY2026 153.1 / 204.6 - 1 = -25.2%. Deferred system and service revenue 932.9 + 604.1 + 238.1 = 1,775.1, about $1.8 billion. Unrecognised contract price 1,775.1 / 3,125.9 x 12 = about 7 months of service revenue. Region: Taiwan FY2024 1,738.1 / 2,493.4 - 1 = -30.3%; FY2026 against FY2024 3,643.7 / 1,738.1 - 1 = +110%; FY2025 3,205.4 / 1,738.1 - 1 = +84.4%; FY2023 2,493.4 / 2,528.5 - 1 = -1.4%. Korea FY2019 584.1 / 1,178.6 - 1 = -50%; FY2024 906.9 / 1,895.7 - 1 = -52%; share 1,178.6 / 4,036.7 = 29.2% (FY2018), 584.1 / 4,568.9 = 12.8% (FY2019), 1,895.7 / 10,496.1 = 18.1% (FY2023), 906.9 / 9,812.2 = 9.2% (FY2024), 1,833.8 / 13,579.5 = 13.5% (FY2026). China FY2025 4,042.6 / 4,196.7 - 1 = -3.7%; FY2026 4,048.4 / 4,042.6 - 1 = +0.1%; China plus Taiwan 29.8% + 26.8% = 56.6%; Q4 FY2026 China 4,048.4 - 3,091.6 = 956.7, 956.7 / 3,657.6 = 26.2%. Backlog 12,570 / 7,860 - 1 = +59.9%; 12,570 / 13,579.5 = 93% of revenue; unrecognised contract price 1,775.1 / 12,570 = 14% of backlog. Advanced packaging about 1,000 / 13,579.5 = about 7% of revenue. Quarter: Q4 FY2026 revenue 3,657.6 / 3,174.7 - 1 = +15.2%; 3,657.6 / 3,415.1 - 1 = +7.1%; service 820.4 / 702.6 - 1 = +16.8%; process control 3,256.8 / 2,877.6 - 1 = +13.2%; PCB and Component Inspection 241.1 / 154.1 - 1 = +56.5%; GAAP gross margin (3,657.6 - 1,413.1) / 3,657.6 = 61.4%. Guidance midpoint 4,000 / 3,209.7 - 1 = +24.6%; 4,000 / 3,657.6 - 1 = +9.4%. Consensus fiscal 2027 18,110 / 13,579.5 - 1 = +33.4%; EPS 5.45 / 3.66 - 1 = +49%. The 2030 model at 13% a year: 13,579.5 x 1.13 ^ 2 = 17,340 (FY2028); 13,579.5 x 1.13 ^ 5 = about 25,000 (FY2031). Cash and capital: free cash flow 4,143.1 - 375.9 = 3,767.1; capital returns 2,289.8 + 1,057.8 = 3,347.6, 3,347.6 / 3,767.1 = 88.9%; dividends 1,057.8 / 4,830.8 = 21.9% of net income; buybacks 2,289.8 / 1,057.8 = 2.2 times dividends; capital spending 375.9 / 13,579.5 = 2.8% of revenue; operating cash flow 3,308.6 / 2,761.9 = 120% (FY2024), 4,081.9 / 4,061.6 = 100% (FY2025), 4,143.1 / 4,830.8 = 86% (FY2026); operating cash flow growth 4,143.1 / 4,081.9 - 1 = +1.5%; net income less operating cash flow 4,830.8 - 4,143.1 = 687.7; receivables 2,889.2 / 2,263.9 - 1 = +27.6%, an increase of 625.3; inventories 3,648.5 - 3,212.1 = 436.4; together 1,061.7. FY2015 dividends paid 3,041.1 / 366.2 = 8.3 times net income. Buybacks FY2015-FY2026 602.9 + 181.7 + 25.0 + 203.2 + 1,095.2 + 829.1 + 938.6 + 3,967.8 + 1,311.9 + 1,735.7 + 2,149.9 + 2,289.8 = 15,330.8; dividends paid 3,041.1 + 346.3 + 344.0 + 402.1 + 472.3 + 522.4 + 559.4 + 638.5 + 732.6 + 773.0 + 904.6 + 1,057.8 = 9,794.1. Diluted shares 1,319.6 / 1,637.0 - 1 = -19.4%. Net debt 5,887.4 - 1,649.8 - 3,252.6 = 985.0 (FY2026); 5,884.3 - 2,078.9 - 2,415.7 = 1,389.7 (FY2025); 6,630.1 - 1,977.1 - 2,526.9 = 2,126.1 (FY2024); 985.0 / 3,767.1 = 26% of free cash flow. Return on equity 4,830.8 / ((4,692.5 + 6,349.8) / 2 = 5,521.2) = 87.5%; FY2025 4,061.6 / ((3,368.3 + 4,692.5) / 2) = 100.8%; FY2024 2,761.9 / ((2,919.8 + 3,368.3) / 2) = 87.9%. Buyback authorisation 9,740 / 245,240 = 4%; 9,740 / (0.9 x 3,767.1) = 2.9 years; 9,740 / 571.0 = 17 quarters. Valuation: market value 245,240 / 383,870 = 0.64 (Applied Materials); 656,330 / 245,240 = 2.7 (ASML); 245,240 / 14,050 = 17.5 (Onto Innovation); 393,130 / 245,240 = 1.6 (Lam Research); 245,240 / 394,116 - 1 = -38% (June to September 2026); 394,116 / 118,454 = 3.3 times (June 2025 to June 2026); price 187.92 / 307.37 - 1 = -38.9%; 187.92 / 227.35 - 1 = -17% (June buyback price); 227.35 / 187.92 = 1.21 (21% more shares); free cash flow yield 3,767.1 / 245,240 = 1.5%; research 1,532.1 / 245,240 = 0.6% of KLA market value and 1,532.1 / 14,050 = 10.9%, about a ninth, of Onto Innovation's; revenue 13,579.5 / Lam Research 23,232.7 = 58%; market value 245,240 / 393,130 = 62%; buybacks 2,289.8 / 187.92 = 12.2 million shares at the September price, 12.2 / 1,319.6 = 0.9%; authorisation 9,740 / 2,289.8 = 4.3 years at the fiscal 2026 pace; P/E 245,240 / 4,830.8 = 50.8; P/S 245,240 / 13,579.5 = 18.1. Gross margin gap 61.3% less Lam Research about 50% = about 11 points - cash flow, capital returns, balance sheet, per-share figures and valuation. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in KLA's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, quarterly results releases, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
13. ReportedThe test is the quarter after a fall: if buybacks in the September 2026 quarter were larger than June's $571.0 million, KLA would be buying the dip rather than the peak.
    KLA fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - revenue, product and service revenue, segment revenue, net income, cash flow, capital returns and September 2026 quarter guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗

• KLA Form 10-K, FY2026