⚠ Industrial Growth Is Mostly BoughtLow threat

Amphenol (APH) — threat to the moat

Industrial sales rose 56% in the June 2026 quarter but only 18% organically, the rest bought with CommScope's building business.

The industrial market's recent growth looks stronger than the business underneath it. In the June 2026 quarter industrial sales rose 56% in U.S. dollars but 18% organically1, so about 38 points came from acquisitions and currency2. CommScope's building connectivity business, which "primarily sells a broad array of interconnect solutions integrated into existing and next-generation building technology in the industrial market"3, is most of the difference.

Industrial market sales growth, Q2 2026 against Q2 2025 (%)56Reported, US dollars18Organic38Acquisitions and currencyAmphenol Q2 2026 earnings call; acquired share derived as the difference
Two-thirds of the growth came with the purchase.

Eighteen percent organic growth is healthy. The risk is in how the combined figure will be read. A reader who takes 56% at face value will expect it again, and next year's comparison will include CommScope in both periods. The acquired lift then disappears from the growth rate, and the organic figure is what remains.

It is also a different kind of industrial business. Building connectivity sells into construction and renovation, which follows interest rates and property cycles, rather than into factory automation and instruments. Amphenol's industrial mix is becoming more exposed to building activity than it was. The industrial share of sales, 20% in the quarter4, was lifted by the same purchase.

The company does not break out the acquired contribution by market, which is why the gap between the two growth rates is the only measure available. When CommScope laps its January 2026 purchase date, reported and organic industrial growth should converge. If organic industrial growth in 2027 falls below 5%, the base under the AI boom will have been thinner than the 2026 headline suggested.

References
  1. ReportedIn the June 2026 quarter industrial sales rose 56% in U.S. dollars but 18% organically, so about 38 points came from acquisitions and currency.
    Amphenol second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - end-market shares and growth, CommScope, orders, debt and leverage - end-market shares and growth. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcIn the June 2026 quarter industrial sales rose 56% in U.S. dollars but 18% organically, so about 38 points came from acquisitions and currency.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Amphenol's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years; per-share figures adjusted for the two-for-one splits of March 2021, June 2024 and September 2026). Sales growth: 2025 23,094.7 / 15,222.7 - 1 = +51.7%; 2024 15,222.7 / 12,554.7 - 1 = +21.3%; 2023 12,554.7 / 12,623.0 - 1 = -0.5%; 2019 8,225.4 / 8,202.0 - 1 = +0.3%; 2025 increase 23,094.7 - 15,222.7 = 7,872.0, about $7.9bn; 2015-2025 23,094.7 / 5,568.7 = 4.1 times. Operating margin (operating income / net sales): 2015 1,104.7 / 5,568.7 = 19.8%; 2016 1,205.2 / 6,286.4 = 19.2%; 2017 1,427.6 / 7,011.3 = 20.4%; 2018 1,686.9 / 8,202.0 = 20.6%; 2019 1,619.2 / 8,225.4 = 19.7%; 2020 1,638.4 / 8,598.9 = 19.1%; 2021 2,105.1 / 10,876.3 = 19.4%; 2022 2,585.8 / 12,623.0 = 20.5%; 2023 2,559.6 / 12,554.7 = 20.4%; 2024 3,156.9 / 15,222.7 = 20.7%; 2025 5,868.6 / 23,094.7 = 25.4%; average 2015-2024 about 20.0%; Q2 2025 1,418.8 / 5,650.3 = 25.1%; operating income growth 2025 5,868.6 / 3,156.9 - 1 = +85.9%, Q2 2026 2,584.6 / 1,418.8 - 1 = +82.2%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: sales 23,094.7 - 10,461.3 + 16,378.2 = 29,011.6; net income 4,270.3 - 1,829.1 + 2,702.2 = 5,143.4; operating income 5,868.6 - 2,443.6 + 4,416.4 = 7,841.4, margin 7,841.4 / 29,011.6 = 27.0%; at a 20% margin 29,011.6 x 0.20 = about 5,800, 26% below 7,841.4. Gross margin: 4,084.1 / 12,554.7 = 32.5% (2023); 5,139.7 / 15,222.7 = 33.8% (2024); 8,517.7 / 23,094.7 = 36.9% (2025); 3,548.0 / 8,758.1 = 40.5% (Q2 2026); tariff benefit 80 / 8,758.1 = 0.9 points. Segment margins (segment operating income / external sales): Communications Solutions 871.2 / 4,056.2 = 21.5% (2020), 1,023.3 / 4,832.1 = 21.2%, 1,245.7 / 5,652.4 = 22.0%, 1,063.5 / 4,912.8 = 21.6%, 1,569.6 / 6,323.8 = 24.8%, 3,746.6 / 12,056.0 = 31.1% (2025); Harsh Environment Solutions 556.8 / 2,286.0 = 24.4%, 708.2 / 2,752.2 = 25.7%, 801.6 / 3,107.2 = 25.8%, 943.9 / 3,530.8 = 26.7%, 1,093.2 / 4,417.4 = 24.7%, 1,541.4 / 5,881.7 = 26.2%; Interconnect and Sensor Systems 348.6 / 2,256.7 = 15.4%, 588.1 / 3,292.0 = 17.9%, 716.5 / 3,863.4 = 18.5%, 753.7 / 4,111.1 = 18.3%, 825.9 / 4,481.5 = 18.4%, 1,005.1 / 5,157.0 = 19.5%. Communications Solutions share of segment operating income: 871.2 / 1,776.6 = 49.0% (2020); 1,023.3 / 2,319.6 = 44.1%; 1,245.7 / 2,763.8 = 45.1%; 1,063.5 / 2,761.1 = 38.5%; 1,569.6 / 3,488.7 = 45.0%; 3,746.6 / 6,293.1 = 59.5% (2025); Q2 2026 1,808.3 / (1,808.3 + 559.3 + 318.9 = 2,686.5) = 67.3%; Q2 2025 890.7 / 1,506.7 = 59.1%. Segment operating income growth Q2 2026: Harsh Environment 559.3 / 363.7 - 1 = +53.8%; Interconnect and Sensor 318.9 / 252.3 - 1 = +26.4%. Segment sales growth 2020-2025: Communications Solutions 12,056.0 / 4,056.2 = 2.97 times, 24.3% a year; Harsh Environment 5,881.7 / 2,286.0 = 2.57 times, 20.8% a year; Interconnect and Sensor 5,157.0 / 2,256.7 = 2.29 times, 18.0% a year; Communications Solutions operating income 3,746.6 / 871.2 = 4.3 times; Communications Solutions 2023 4,912.8 / 5,652.4 - 1 = -13.1%; Interconnect and Sensor 2021 3,292.0 / 2,256.7 - 1 = +45.9%, 2023 4,111.1 / 3,863.4 - 1 = +6.4%; Communications Solutions share of net sales 4,056.2 / 8,598.9 = 47% (2020), Q2 2026 5,383.6 / 8,758.1 = 61.5%. Segment costs and geography 2025: gap between segment and consolidated operating income 6,293.1 - 5,868.6 = 424.5, 424.5 / 6,293.1 = 6.7%; 2024 3,488.7 - 3,156.9 = 331.8, 9.5%; 2023 2,761.1 - 2,559.6 = 201.5, 7.3%; depreciation and amortisation 486.9 / (486.9 + 166.5 + 150.0 = 803.4) = 60.6%, 486.9 / 12,056.0 = 4.0%, 166.5 / 5,881.7 = 2.8%, 150.0 / 5,157.0 = 2.9%; Harsh Environment United States 3,211.0 / 5,881.7 = 54.6%, China 508.5 / 5,881.7 = 8.6%, distributors 1,595.8 / 5,881.7 = 27.1%; Interconnect and Sensor China 959.4 / 5,157.0 = 18.6%; Communications Solutions China 2,205.2 / 12,056.0 = 18.3% and 2,205.2 / 3,673.1 = 60.0% of China sales; Q2 2026 Communications Solutions China 698.0 / 515.2 - 1 = +35.5%. Geography: China share of net sales 2,067.3 / 7,011.3 = 29.5% (2017); 2,594.0 / 8,202.0 = 31.6% (2018); 2,306.4 / 8,225.4 = 28.0% (2019); 2,597.5 / 8,598.9 = 30.2% (2020); 3,044.4 / 10,876.3 = 28.0% (2021); 3,265.0 / 12,623.0 = 25.9% (2022); 2,884.0 / 12,554.7 = 23.0% (2023); 3,399.9 / 15,222.7 = 22.3% (2024); 3,673.1 / 23,094.7 = 15.9% (2025); Q2 2026 1,113.0 / 8,758.1 = 12.7%, Q2 2025 882.2 / 5,650.3 = 15.6%; China Q2 growth 1,113.0 / 882.2 - 1 = +26.2%; United States share 2,524.7 / 8,225.4 = 30.7% (2019), 7,987.7 / 23,094.7 = 34.6% (2025), Q2 2026 3,413.8 / 8,758.1 = 39.0%, United States Q2 growth 3,413.8 / 1,937.3 - 1 = +76.2%; long-lived assets in China 1,050.4 / 617.9 - 1 = +70.0% (2025); China cash taxes 579.5 / 1,084.1 = 53.5%; China tax charges 100.0 + 130.0 + 160.0 = 390.0, 390.0 / 5,143.4 = 7.6% of trailing net income. People: employees outside the United States 170,000 - 15,000 = 155,000 (2025), 125,000 - 12,000 = 113,000 (2024); United States share 12,000 / 125,000 = 10% and 15,000 / 170,000 = 9%; employees 170,000 / 74,000 = 2.3 times; net sales per employee 8,225.4 / 74,000 = about $111,000 (2019), 23,094.7 / 170,000 = about $136,000 (2025); net sales per general manager 8,598.9 / 120 = 71.7 (2020), 10,876.3 / 130 = 83.7, 12,623.0 / 130 = 97.1, 12,554.7 / 130 = 96.6, 15,222.7 / 140 = 108.7, 23,094.7 / 140 = 165.0 (2025); people added by CommScope deals about 4,000 + 20,000 = 24,000; SG&A 2,545.7 / 23,094.7 = 11.0% (2025), 1,855.4 / 15,222.7 = 12.2%, 1,489.9 / 12,554.7 = 11.9%, SG&A growth 2,545.7 / 1,855.4 - 1 = +37.2%; Norwitt 8,219,557 x 2 = about 16.4 million shares, x $83.14 = about $1.37bn. Acquisitions: payments 2015-2025 199.8 + 1,305.1 + 265.5 + 158.9 + 937.4 + 50.4 + 2,225.4 + 288.2 + 970.4 + 2,156.4 + 3,818.6 = 12,376.1, plus 10,684.0 in H1 2026 = about $23.1bn; goodwill 17,554.7 / 4,867.1 = 3.6 times; goodwill and intangibles 17,554.7 + 5,288.9 = 22,843.6, 22,843.6 / 44,806.6 = 51.0% (June 2026), 10,575.4 + 2,241.4 = 12,816.8, 12,816.8 / 36,236.9 = 35.4% (December 2025); property 2,932.2 / 44,806.6 = 6.5%; acquisition payments / operating cash flow 937.4 / 1,502.3 = 62.4% (2019), 50.4 / 1,592.0 = 3.2%, 2,225.4 / 1,540.1 = 144.5%, 288.2 / 2,174.6 = 13.3%, 970.4 / 2,528.7 = 38.4%, 2,156.4 / 2,814.7 = 76.6%, 3,818.6 / 5,374.7 = 71.0% (2025); 2025 uses of cash 996.6 capex + 3,818.6 acquisitions + 802.2 dividends + 665.2 buybacks = 6,282.6, above operating cash flow of 5,374.7; dividends and buybacks 802.2 + 665.2 = 1,467.4; price / expected sales CIT 1,995.3 / 900 = 2.2 times, Andrew 2,022.7 / 1,200 = 1.7 times, CommScope CCS 10,500 / 3,754.5 = 2.8 times and 10,500 / 545.9 = 19 times net income; CCS operating margin 739.6 / 3,754.5 = 19.7%; CCS sales growth 3,754.5 / 2,823.2 - 1 = +33.0%; CCS allocation (6,958.0 + 3,289.0) / 10,735.8 = 95%, other net assets 10,735.8 - 6,958.0 - 3,289.0 - 317.0 = 171.8; CCS operating income 739.6 / 10,500 = about 7% of price; CommScope since acquisition 190.2 / 2,100.9 = 9.1% net margin, Amphenol H1 2026 2,702.2 / 16,378.2 = 16.5%, CommScope share of H1 sales 2,100.9 / 16,378.2 = 12.8%; H1 2026 purchase costs 272.4 + 132.0 + 179.0 = 583.4, 583.4 / 190.2 = 3.1 times; acquisition-related expenses 103.4 / 23,094.7 = 0.4% of sales; accretion $0.30 pre-split / 2 = $0.15; acquired and currency growth Q2 2026 55% - 30% = 25 points, industrial 56% - 18% = 38 points; CommScope purchases 2,022.7 + 10,500 = about $12.5bn. Cash and capital: free cash flow / net income 2,159.9 / 1,928.0 = 112.0% (2023), 2,156.9 / 2,424.0 = 89.0% (2024), 4,392.9 / 4,270.3 = 102.9% (2025); operating cash flow 5,374.7 / 1,030.5 = 5.2 times (2015-2025); capital spending / sales 172.1 / 5,568.7 = 3.1% (2015), 360.4 / 10,876.3 = 3.3% (2021), 383.8 / 12,623.0 = 3.0%, 372.8 / 12,554.7 = 3.0% (2023), 665.4 / 15,222.7 = 4.4%, 996.6 / 23,094.7 = 4.3% (2025), 355.5 / 8,758.1 = 4.1% (Q2 2026); long-lived assets 2,864.6 / 2,096.2 - 1 = +36.7%; buybacks 2015-2025 248.9 + 325.8 + 618.0 + 935.2 + 601.7 + 641.3 + 661.7 + 730.5 + 585.1 + 689.3 + 665.2 = 6,702.7; buybacks net of option proceeds 585.1 - 394.5 = 190.6 (2023), 689.3 - 447.4 = 241.9 (2024), 665.2 - 553.0 = 112.2 (2025); diluted shares 316.5 x 8 = 2,532 million (2015), 1,289.2 x 2 = 2,578 million (Q2 2026), +1.8%, 1,272.2 x 2 = 2,544 million (Q2 2025); diluted EPS 2.41 / 8 = $0.30 (2015), 3.34 / 2 = $1.67 (2025), 1.37 / 2 = $0.685 (Q2 2026); net debt 6,886.1 - 3,335.4 = 3,550.7 (2024), 15,502.0 - 11,434.2 = 4,067.8 (2025); November 2025 notes 500 + 750 + 750 + 1,000 + 1,250 + 1,600 + 1,650 = 7,500; interest H1 2026 421.6 / 157.4 = 2.7 times; interest cover 5,868.6 / 367.8 = 16 times (2025), 4,416.4 / 421.6 = 10.5 times (H1 2026); interest / operating income 139.5 / 2,559.6 = 5.5% (2023), 421.6 / 4,416.4 = 9.5% (H1 2026); invested capital 30,639.2 / 18,303.5 = 1.67 times. Markets: IT datacom sales 0.19 x 8,225.4 = about 1,560 (2019), 0.24 x 15,222.7 = about 3,650 (2024), 0.36 x 23,094.7 = about 8,310 (2025), 2025 increase about 4,660 of 7,872.0; industrial 0.19 x 23,094.7 = about 4,390 (2025); mobile devices 0.15 x 8,598.9 = about 1,290 (2020), 0.06 x 23,094.7 = about 1,390 (2025); communications networks = mobile networks + broadband 8 + 4 = 12% (2019), 6 + 4 = 10% (2020), 5 + 4 = 9% (2021), 5 + 5 = 10% (2022), 4 + 4 = 8% (2023), 3 + 3 = 6% (2024); sales outside IT datacom Q2 2026 8,758.1 - 3,800 = about 4,960, Q2 2025 5,650.3 - 3,800 / 1.89 = about 3,640; distributor share 2,092.5 / 12,554.7 = 16.7% (2023), 2,778.2 / 15,222.7 = 18.3% (2024), 4,297.2 / 23,094.7 = 18.6% (2025); end customers and contract manufacturers 18,797.5 / 23,094.7 = 81.4%; backlog 8.9 / 1.720 = 5.2 times (2018-2025), 8.9 / 6.1 - 1 = +45.9%, 8.9 / 23.09 = 38.5% of 2025 sales; market share 23,094.7 / about 500,000 = 4.6%. Valuation: market value / net income 16,100 / 763.5 = 21.1 (2015), 26,810 / 650.5 = 41.2 (2017), 24,410 / 1,205.0 = 20.3 (2018), 39,120 / 1,203.4 = 32.5 (2020), 45,310 / 1,902.3 = 23.8 (2022), 59,310 / 1,928.0 = 30.8 (2023), 83,730 / 2,424.0 = 34.5 (2024), 165,420 / 4,270.3 = 38.7 (2025), 205,020 / 5,143.4 = 39.9 (September 2026); Amphenol / TE Connectivity 205.02 / 63.28 = 3.2 times; value added since 2024 (205.02 - 83.73) / 205.02 = 59%; forward earnings 83.14 / 28.48 = about $2.92, 2.92 / 2.00 - 1 = +46%. More: distributor sales 4,297.2 / 2,092.5 = 2.05 times (2023-2025); SG&A ratio 12.19% - 11.02% = 1.2 points; goodwill 17,554.7 / 44,806.6 = 39% of total assets; Harsh Environment sales 5,881.7 / 2,286.0 = 2.6 times; operating income H1 2026 Communications Solutions 1,389.4 + 1,808.3 = 3,197.7, 3,197.7 / 3,746.6 = 85%; dividend payments 307 against remaining term loan 400.0 = 1.3 quarters; sales growth 2020-2025 23,094.7 / 8,598.9 = 2.7 times; 2019 average quarterly sales 8,225.4 / 4 = about 2,056 against IT datacom Q2 2026 about 3,800; 2025 buyback price 665.2 / 7.4 = about $90 pre-split, $45 post-split; CommScope H1 net income 190.2 / 2,702.2 = 7%; capital spending H1 2026 647.1 / 16,378.2 = 4.0%; industrial 0.25 x 10,876.3 = about 2,720 (2021); Harsh Environment Q2 United States 990.5 / 772.3 - 1 = +28.3%; Interconnect and Sensor Q2 United States 442.9 / 384.5 - 1 = +15.2%, other foreign 826.0 / 677.8 - 1 = +21.9%, China 248.8 / 233.0 - 1 = +6.8%; Communications Solutions Q2 United States 1,980.4 / 780.5 - 1 = +153.7%, other foreign 2,705.2 / 1,614.1 - 1 = +67.6%; United States share Q2 2025 1,937.3 / 5,650.3 = 34.3%; Interconnect and Sensor sales 5,157.0 / 2,256.7 = 2.3 times. Additional: Communications Solutions Q2 2026 less Q1 2026 sales 5,383.6 - 4,534.7 = 848.9 and operating income 1,808.3 - 1,389.4 = 418.9, 418.9 / 848.9 = 49%; Interconnect and Sensor Q2 less Q1 1,517.7 - 1,392.3 = 125.4; Interconnect and Sensor China 959.4 / 986.0 - 1 = -2.7% (2025), segment 5,157.0 / 4,481.5 - 1 = +15.1%; Harsh Environment 2023 3,530.8 / 3,107.2 - 1 = +13.6%; Harsh Environment operating income 1,541.4 / 556.8 = 2.8 times, Interconnect and Sensor 1,005.1 / 348.6 = 2.9 times (2020-2025); China share of long-lived assets 343.1 / 1,195.7 = 28.7% (2019), 455.5 / 1,616.2 = 28.2% (2023); goodwill increase H1 2026 17,554.7 - 10,575.4 = 6,979.3; Q2 2026 sales 8,758.1 / 7,620.1 - 1 = +14.9%; industrial Q2 2026 0.20 x 8,758.1 = about 1,750; China Q2 2026 by segment 698.0 / 1,113.0 = 62.7%; effective tax rate 1,295.4 / 5,600.7 = 23.1% (2025), 570.3 / 3,011.9 = 18.9% (2024); June-quarter buyback price 141 / 2 = 70.50; long-lived assets 2,864.6 / 36,236.9 = 7.9% of total assets; Norwitt salary 1,565,000 / 22,351,288 = 7%; market value 205.02 / 16.10 = 12.7 times since 2015; P/S at end-2015 16,100 / 5,568.7 = 2.9; net debt 2024 3,550.7 / operating income 3,156.9 = 1.1 times; dividends 802.2 / 4,270.3 = 19% of net income; distributor sales 4,297.2 / 2,778.2 - 1 = +54.7%, direct 18,797.5 / 12,444.5 - 1 = +51.0%; CommScope H2 need 4,600 - 2,100.9 = about 2,500; orders 25.4 / 23.09 = 1.1 times sales; EBITDA implied by net leverage 13.4 / 1.3 = about 10.3bn, net debt at 1.0 times about 10.3bn, 13.4 - 10.3 = about 3.1bn less, or 13.4 / 10.3 - 1 = about 30% more earnings; deals per year 970 / 10 = 97, 937 / 9 = 104; Cable Products and Solutions 2021 22.8 / 445.4 = 5.1%; H1 2026 Communications Solutions 4,534.7 + 5,383.6 = 9,918.3; CommScope purchases 2,022.7 + 10,500 = about 12,500 against 12,376.1 for 2015-2025; November notes 7,500; sales 2020 8,598.9 / 8,225.4 - 1 = +4.5%, 2021 10,876.3 / 8,598.9 - 1 = +26.5% - acquisitions, goodwill and the CommScope purchase. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Amphenol's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, quarterly results releases, earnings calls, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedCommScope's building connectivity business, which "primarily sells a broad array of interconnect solutions integrated into existing and next-generation building technology in the industrial market", is most of the difference.
    Amphenol release of 4 August 2025, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - agreement to buy CommScope's Connectivity and Cable Solutions business for $10.5 billion in cash. — August 2025 · publ. 4 August 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe industrial share of sales, 20% in the quarter, was lifted by the same purchase.
    Amphenol second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool) - end-market shares and growth, CommScope, orders, debt and leverage - end-market shares and growth. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026