⚠ Accounts Are ShrinkingModerate threat

Verizon (VZ) — threat to the moat

Verizon lost 409 thousand postpaid accounts in a year while adding phones, so it is selling more lines to fewer households.

Behind the phone count is a quieter number that is going the other way. Verizon had 34,849 thousand retail postpaid accounts at the end of 2024, 34,496 thousand at the end of 20251 and 34,237 thousand on 30 June 2026, against 34,646 thousand a year earlier2. That is 409 thousand fewer paying households in twelve months, down 1.2%3.

Verizon retail postpaid accounts (thousands)34,849Dec 202434,646Jun 202534,496Dec 202534,237Jun 2026Verizon Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 results releases, account statistics
Down every period shown.

Phones rose while accounts fell because each remaining account carries more lines: connections per account went from 3.61 to 3.67 in 20254. Adding a line to an existing family plan is cheaper to win than a new household, and it is also worth less.

The account is where the relationship lives. It is the bill, the credit check, the home broadband and the loyalty programme. A carrier losing accounts while adding lines is getting deeper with fewer customers, which is how a franchise shrinks gently.

The phone count and the account count moved apart in the fourth quarter of 2025 too: postpaid accounts ended the year at 34,496 thousand5, while postpaid phone connections rose to 93,868 thousand6. The gap is the family plan doing its job and hiding a smaller customer base at the same time.

T-Mobile had 34,700 thousand postpaid accounts at the end of the same quarter7, a point argued on T-Mobile: The Rival With More Accounts. An account count still lower year on year at the end of 2026 would show the phone additions were won inside existing homes, not new ones.

References
  1. ReportedVerizon had 34,849 thousand retail postpaid accounts at the end of 2024, 34,496 thousand at the end of 2025 and 34,237 thousand on 30 June 2026, against 34,646 thousand a year earlier.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - operating statistics: connections, net additions, churn, ARPA, Fios and fixed wireless. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedVerizon had 34,849 thousand retail postpaid accounts at the end of 2024, 34,496 thousand at the end of 2025 and 34,237 thousand on 30 June 2026, against 34,646 thousand a year earlier.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - operating statistics: connections, net additions, churn, ARPA, upgrades and broadband. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcThat is 409 thousand fewer paying households in twelve months, down 1.2%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Verizon's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue and profit over the decade: revenue 2015-2025 (138,191 / 131,620) ^ (1/10) - 1 = about 0.5% a year; 138,191 / 131,620 - 1 = +5.0%; range 138,191 - 125,980 = about 12.2bn; 2027 revenue of 142bn would need (142 / 138.191) ^ (1/2) - 1 = about 1.4% a year; operating income 29,259 / 30,615 - 1 = -4.4%; net income 17,174 / 17,879 - 1 = -3.9%; diluted EPS 4.06 / 4.37 - 1 = -7.1%; total assets 404,258 / 244,175 - 1 = +65.6%. Segments 2025: Consumer share of segment operating income 29,628 / (29,628 + 2,532 = 32,160) = 92.1% (2024 29,484 / 31,542 = 93.5%; 2023 29,011 / 31,077 = 93.4%); Business share 2,532 / 32,160 = 7.9%; Q2 2026 Consumer 8,032 / (8,032 + 991 = 9,023) = 89.0%, Q2 2025 7,643 / (7,643 + 724 = 8,367) = 91.3%; Consumer operating margin 29,628 / 106,807 = 27.7%, Business 2,532 / 29,069 = 8.7%; Business share of segment revenue 29,069 / 135,876 = 21.4%; shared network and service costs 17,991 + 9,717 = 27,708, Business share 9,717 / 27,708 = 35.1%; Consumer share of segment EBITDA 43,801 / (43,801 + 6,644) = 86.8%; Consumer revenue 2025 106,807 / 102,904 - 1 = +3.8%, 2023-2025 106,807 / 101,626 - 1 = +5.1%; Consumer service revenue 80,617 / 77,127 - 1 = +4.5%; Consumer equipment 21,779 - 23,930 = -2,151, about 2.2bn below cost; Business revenue 29,069 / 30,122 - 1 = -3.5%; Enterprise and Public Sector 13,532 / 15,076 - 1 = -10.2%; Business Markets and Other 13,555 / 12,697 - 1 = +6.8%; Wholesale 1,953 / 2,313 - 1 = -15.6%; institutional and wholesale decline (15,076 - 13,532) + (2,313 - 1,953) = 1,904; Q2 2026 Consumer revenue 26,242 / 26,648 - 1 = -1.5%; Business revenue 7,155 / 6,973 - 1 = +2.6%; restatement 7,275 - 6,973 = 302 a quarter; mobility and broadband service revenue 2025 75,923 + 14,940 = 90,863. Customers: T-Mobile postpaid accounts 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 more than Verizon; T-Mobile 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%, 34,700 - 31,502 = 3,198; Verizon accounts 34,237 - 34,646 = -409, -1.2%; ARPA premium 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%; cable lines 10,187 + 12,540 = about 22.7 million; cable Q2 net adds 448 + 406 = 854 thousand, 854 / 184 = 4.6 times; Q2 net adds share 184 / (184 + 432 + 448 + 406 = 1,470) = 12.5%; fibre net adds 155 / 367 = 42%; annual churn at 0.92% a month 0.92 x 12 = 11.0%, about one customer in ten; 0.1 point on 94 million = about 94 thousand phones a month; prepaid churn 3.59 / 0.92 = 3.9 times; prepaid annual loss 1 - (1 - 0.0359) ^ 12 = 35.5%, average life 1 / 0.0359 = 27.9 months, a little over two years; revenue per postpaid line 170.62 / 3.67 = 46.49 (2025), 167.26 / 3.61 = 46.33 (2024); ARPA 2025 170.62 / 167.26 - 1 = +2.0%; ARPA Q2 2026 168.35 / 170.79 - 1 = -1.4%; ARPA H1 2026 167.50 / 170.30 - 1 = -1.6%; wireless service revenue 83,703 / 82,073 - 1 = +2.0%; wireless service share of revenue 83,703 / 138,191 = 60.6%; FWA revenue 2,940 / 2,139 - 1 = +37.4%; FWA revenue share 2,940 / 138,191 = 2.1%; fibre annualised 155 x 4 = 620 thousand; passings 2.0 / 30 = 6.7%; passings to fill 2,000 / 620 = 3.2 times. Spectrum and capital: C-Band 45.5 + 7.5 = 53.0bn; licences share of assets 158,159 / 410,186 = 38.6%; licences over goodwill 158,159 / 30,664 = 5.2 times; licences over equity 158,159 / 105,196 = 1.5 times; wireless service revenue per dollar of licences 83,703 / 157,039 = 0.53; spectrum bought June 2026 1.0 + 3.2 = 4.2bn; capex / revenue 17,011 / 138,191 = 12.3% (2025), 23,087 / 136,835 = 16.9% (2022); capex 17,011 / 23,087 - 1 = -26.3%; capex less depreciation 17,011 - 18,349 = -1,338; ROIC averages 2015-2019 (10.8 + 9.1 + 12.7 + 8.2 + 11.3) / 5 = 10.4%, 2021-2025 (8.7 + 7.3 + 5.0 + 7.0 + 7.1) / 5 = 7.0%; interest expense 6,694 / 5,524 - 1 = +21.2% (2023-2025); Q2 interest 1,985 / 1,639 - 1 = +21.1%; interest / operating income 6,694 / 29,259 = 22.9%. Cost, cash and capital returns: employees 89.9 / 99.6 - 1 = -9.7%; severance 533 + 1,733 + 1,715 + 397 = 4,378, about 4.4bn; adjusted EBITDA margin 49,997 / 138,191 = 36.2% (2025), 48,791 / 134,788 = 36.2% (2024); Q2 2026 operating income 7,179 / 8,172 - 1 = -12.2%; free cash flow Q2 6,426 / 5,167 - 1 = +24.4%; adjusted EPS less diluted EPS 4.71 - 4.06 = 0.65; phones sold below cost 28,976 - 25,470 = 3,506, about 3.5bn; dividends / free cash flow 11,481 / 20,126 = 57.0% (2025), 5,864 / 10,209 = 57.4% (H1 2026); dividends / net income 11,481 / 17,174 = 66.9%; dividends per share 2.735 / 2.230 - 1 = +22.6%, (2.735 / 2.230) ^ (1/10) - 1 = 2.1% a year; dividend cost a quarter 0.7075 x 4,155 = about 2,940; buyback average 3,500 / 72.047 = about $48.58 a share; shares 4,155 / 4,217 - 1 = -1.5%; free cash flow yield 21.53 / 193.94 = 11.1%; cash returned about (11.5 + 4.5) / 193.94 = 8.2% of market value; net unsecured debt 128,682 - 110,053 = 18,629; backlog 55.2 / 58.1 - 1 = -5.0%; backlog months 58.1 / 138.191 x 12 = about 5.0; device receivables 34,004 / 31,308 - 1 = +8.6%, allowance 1,628 / 1,315 - 1 = +23.8%; TracFone 3.5 + 3.0 = 6.5bn plus up to 0.65bn. Valuation: Frontier price / market value 22.3 / 193.94 = 11.5%; market value 193.94 / 253.94 - 1 = -23.6% (against end-2019), 193.94 / 188.06 - 1 = +3.1% (against end-2015); target 51.58 / 46.68 - 1 = +10.5%; year-end market value over net income 188.06 / 17.879 = 10.5 (2015), 217.61 / 13.127 = 16.6 (2016), 215.92 / 30.101 = 7.2 (2017), 232.30 / 15.528 = 15.0 (2018), 253.94 / 19.265 = 13.2 (2019), 243.11 / 17.801 = 13.7 (2020), 215.12 / 22.065 = 9.7 (2021), 165.47 / 21.256 = 7.8 (2022), 158.49 / 11.614 = 13.6 (2023), 168.34 / 17.506 = 9.6 (2024), 171.74 / 17.174 = 10.0 (2025); trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 138,191 - 67,989 + 68,693 = 138,895, net income 17,174 - 9,882 + 8,880 = 16,172, 193.94 / 16.172 = 12.0, 193.94 / 138.895 = 1.40 - revenue, profit, costs and growth over time. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Verizon's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, quarterly results releases, the recast segment revenue 8-K, peer results releases (T-Mobile, AT&T, Comcast, Charter) and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedPhones rose while accounts fell because each remaining account carries more lines: connections per account went from 3.61 to 3.67 in 2025.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - operating statistics: connections, net additions, churn, ARPA, Fios and fixed wireless. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe phone count and the account count moved apart in the fourth quarter of 2025 too: postpaid accounts ended the year at 34,496 thousand, while postpaid phone connections rose to 93,868 thousand.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - operating statistics: connections, net additions, churn, ARPA, Fios and fixed wireless. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe phone count and the account count moved apart in the fourth quarter of 2025 too: postpaid accounts ended the year at 34,496 thousand, while postpaid phone connections rose to 93,868 thousand.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - operating statistics: connections, net additions, churn, ARPA, Fios and fixed wireless. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedT-Mobile had 34,700 thousand postpaid accounts at the end of the same quarter, a point argued on T-Mobile: The Rival With More Accounts.
    T-Mobile US second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - postpaid accounts, account churn, ARPA and service revenue. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 29, 2026