⚠ The Return Fell to the Cost of CapitalHigh threat

Verizon (VZ) — threat to the moat

Verizon's return on invested capital fell from about 11% to about 7% in six years, roughly its cost of capital, so the moat now protects value rather than creating it.

A moat is worth something to an owner only if the business behind it earns more than its capital costs. Verizon's return on invested capital, computed from its filings, was 10.8% in 2015, 11.3% in 2019, 8.7% in 2021, 7.3% in 2022, 5.0% in 2023, 7.0% in 2024 and 7.1% in 20251. Against a hurdle of about 7% for a heavily indebted utility-like business, the last five years were at or below the line.

Verizon total assets against operating income ($bn)244.2Total assets 2015404.3Total assets 202530.6Operating income 201529.3Operating income 2025Verizon 10-K FY2019 Exhibit 13 (restated 2015); Q4 2025 results release; Form 10-K FY2025
Two-thirds more capital, slightly less operating income.

The cause is the denominator. Total assets grew from $244,175 million in 20152 to $404,258 million in 20253, 65.6%4, while operating income fell from $30,615 million to $29,259 million56. More capital, less income.

A third-party estimate is kinder: stockanalysis puts the trailing return on invested capital at 8.27% and the weighted average cost of capital at 4.24%7. The gap between the two views is mostly the cost of capital assumed, and at a 6.06% dividend yield8, a 4.24% cost of equity-plus-debt looks low.

The balance sheet grew in two big steps. Total assets were $291,727 million at the end of 20199 and $404,258 million at the end of 202510, with wireless licences alone at $157,039 million11. By June 2026, after Frontier, they were $410,186 million12. Each step added capital on which the same flat operating income has to earn a return.

The Frontier purchase adds $22.3 billion of consideration to the base13 for a business the company says is "less than 5 %" of revenue14. If return on invested capital with Frontier fully counted is below 7% for 2026, Verizon will be adding capital faster than it adds income, again.

References
  1. Moat Explorer calcVerizon's return on invested capital, computed from its filings, was 10.8% in 2015, 11.3% in 2019, 8.7% in 2021, 7.3% in 2022, 5.0% in 2023, 7.0% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation, repo method (tools_roic_edgar.py run on a scratch copy with CIK 732712) on SEC EDGAR XBRL: return on invested capital 10.8% (2015), 9.1% (2016), 12.7% (2017), 8.2% (2018), 11.3% (2019), 8.8% (2020), 8.7% (2021), 7.3% (2022), 5.0% (2023), 7.0% (2024), 7.1% (2025). — FY2015-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: NOPAT (operating income times one minus the effective tax rate, clamped 0-35%) divided by average operating invested capital (total assets less current liabilities less cash), SEC EDGAR XBRL. 2017 is flattered because the tax-reform benefit clamps the rate to zero; 2021 onward carries about $53 billion of C-Band licences and clearing costs in invested capital; 2023 is cut by the $5.8 billion goodwill impairment.
  2. ReportedTotal assets grew from $244,175 million in 2015 to $404,258 million in 2025, 65.6%, while operating income fell from $30,615 million to $29,259 million.
    Verizon Form 10-K for fiscal 2019, Exhibit 13 - selected financial data for 2015-2019 (revenue, operating income, net income, EPS and dividends). — FY2015-FY2019 · publ. February 2020 · source ↗
  3. ReportedTotal assets grew from $244,175 million in 2015 to $404,258 million in 2025, 65.6%, while operating income fell from $30,615 million to $29,259 million.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - income statement, segment EBITDA and highlights. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcTotal assets grew from $244,175 million in 2015 to $404,258 million in 2025, 65.6%, while operating income fell from $30,615 million to $29,259 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Verizon's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Revenue and profit over the decade: revenue 2015-2025 (138,191 / 131,620) ^ (1/10) - 1 = about 0.5% a year; 138,191 / 131,620 - 1 = +5.0%; range 138,191 - 125,980 = about 12.2bn; 2027 revenue of 142bn would need (142 / 138.191) ^ (1/2) - 1 = about 1.4% a year; operating income 29,259 / 30,615 - 1 = -4.4%; net income 17,174 / 17,879 - 1 = -3.9%; diluted EPS 4.06 / 4.37 - 1 = -7.1%; total assets 404,258 / 244,175 - 1 = +65.6%. Segments 2025: Consumer share of segment operating income 29,628 / (29,628 + 2,532 = 32,160) = 92.1% (2024 29,484 / 31,542 = 93.5%; 2023 29,011 / 31,077 = 93.4%); Business share 2,532 / 32,160 = 7.9%; Q2 2026 Consumer 8,032 / (8,032 + 991 = 9,023) = 89.0%, Q2 2025 7,643 / (7,643 + 724 = 8,367) = 91.3%; Consumer operating margin 29,628 / 106,807 = 27.7%, Business 2,532 / 29,069 = 8.7%; Business share of segment revenue 29,069 / 135,876 = 21.4%; shared network and service costs 17,991 + 9,717 = 27,708, Business share 9,717 / 27,708 = 35.1%; Consumer share of segment EBITDA 43,801 / (43,801 + 6,644) = 86.8%; Consumer revenue 2025 106,807 / 102,904 - 1 = +3.8%, 2023-2025 106,807 / 101,626 - 1 = +5.1%; Consumer service revenue 80,617 / 77,127 - 1 = +4.5%; Consumer equipment 21,779 - 23,930 = -2,151, about 2.2bn below cost; Business revenue 29,069 / 30,122 - 1 = -3.5%; Enterprise and Public Sector 13,532 / 15,076 - 1 = -10.2%; Business Markets and Other 13,555 / 12,697 - 1 = +6.8%; Wholesale 1,953 / 2,313 - 1 = -15.6%; institutional and wholesale decline (15,076 - 13,532) + (2,313 - 1,953) = 1,904; Q2 2026 Consumer revenue 26,242 / 26,648 - 1 = -1.5%; Business revenue 7,155 / 6,973 - 1 = +2.6%; restatement 7,275 - 6,973 = 302 a quarter; mobility and broadband service revenue 2025 75,923 + 14,940 = 90,863. Customers: T-Mobile postpaid accounts 34,700 - 34,237 = 463 more than Verizon; T-Mobile 34,700 / 31,502 - 1 = +10.2%, 34,700 - 31,502 = 3,198; Verizon accounts 34,237 - 34,646 = -409, -1.2%; ARPA premium 168.35 / 152.91 - 1 = +10.1%; cable lines 10,187 + 12,540 = about 22.7 million; cable Q2 net adds 448 + 406 = 854 thousand, 854 / 184 = 4.6 times; Q2 net adds share 184 / (184 + 432 + 448 + 406 = 1,470) = 12.5%; fibre net adds 155 / 367 = 42%; annual churn at 0.92% a month 0.92 x 12 = 11.0%, about one customer in ten; 0.1 point on 94 million = about 94 thousand phones a month; prepaid churn 3.59 / 0.92 = 3.9 times; prepaid annual loss 1 - (1 - 0.0359) ^ 12 = 35.5%, average life 1 / 0.0359 = 27.9 months, a little over two years; revenue per postpaid line 170.62 / 3.67 = 46.49 (2025), 167.26 / 3.61 = 46.33 (2024); ARPA 2025 170.62 / 167.26 - 1 = +2.0%; ARPA Q2 2026 168.35 / 170.79 - 1 = -1.4%; ARPA H1 2026 167.50 / 170.30 - 1 = -1.6%; wireless service revenue 83,703 / 82,073 - 1 = +2.0%; wireless service share of revenue 83,703 / 138,191 = 60.6%; FWA revenue 2,940 / 2,139 - 1 = +37.4%; FWA revenue share 2,940 / 138,191 = 2.1%; fibre annualised 155 x 4 = 620 thousand; passings 2.0 / 30 = 6.7%; passings to fill 2,000 / 620 = 3.2 times. Spectrum and capital: C-Band 45.5 + 7.5 = 53.0bn; licences share of assets 158,159 / 410,186 = 38.6%; licences over goodwill 158,159 / 30,664 = 5.2 times; licences over equity 158,159 / 105,196 = 1.5 times; wireless service revenue per dollar of licences 83,703 / 157,039 = 0.53; spectrum bought June 2026 1.0 + 3.2 = 4.2bn; capex / revenue 17,011 / 138,191 = 12.3% (2025), 23,087 / 136,835 = 16.9% (2022); capex 17,011 / 23,087 - 1 = -26.3%; capex less depreciation 17,011 - 18,349 = -1,338; ROIC averages 2015-2019 (10.8 + 9.1 + 12.7 + 8.2 + 11.3) / 5 = 10.4%, 2021-2025 (8.7 + 7.3 + 5.0 + 7.0 + 7.1) / 5 = 7.0%; interest expense 6,694 / 5,524 - 1 = +21.2% (2023-2025); Q2 interest 1,985 / 1,639 - 1 = +21.1%; interest / operating income 6,694 / 29,259 = 22.9%. Cost, cash and capital returns: employees 89.9 / 99.6 - 1 = -9.7%; severance 533 + 1,733 + 1,715 + 397 = 4,378, about 4.4bn; adjusted EBITDA margin 49,997 / 138,191 = 36.2% (2025), 48,791 / 134,788 = 36.2% (2024); Q2 2026 operating income 7,179 / 8,172 - 1 = -12.2%; free cash flow Q2 6,426 / 5,167 - 1 = +24.4%; adjusted EPS less diluted EPS 4.71 - 4.06 = 0.65; phones sold below cost 28,976 - 25,470 = 3,506, about 3.5bn; dividends / free cash flow 11,481 / 20,126 = 57.0% (2025), 5,864 / 10,209 = 57.4% (H1 2026); dividends / net income 11,481 / 17,174 = 66.9%; dividends per share 2.735 / 2.230 - 1 = +22.6%, (2.735 / 2.230) ^ (1/10) - 1 = 2.1% a year; dividend cost a quarter 0.7075 x 4,155 = about 2,940; buyback average 3,500 / 72.047 = about $48.58 a share; shares 4,155 / 4,217 - 1 = -1.5%; free cash flow yield 21.53 / 193.94 = 11.1%; cash returned about (11.5 + 4.5) / 193.94 = 8.2% of market value; net unsecured debt 128,682 - 110,053 = 18,629; backlog 55.2 / 58.1 - 1 = -5.0%; backlog months 58.1 / 138.191 x 12 = about 5.0; device receivables 34,004 / 31,308 - 1 = +8.6%, allowance 1,628 / 1,315 - 1 = +23.8%; TracFone 3.5 + 3.0 = 6.5bn plus up to 0.65bn. Valuation: Frontier price / market value 22.3 / 193.94 = 11.5%; market value 193.94 / 253.94 - 1 = -23.6% (against end-2019), 193.94 / 188.06 - 1 = +3.1% (against end-2015); target 51.58 / 46.68 - 1 = +10.5%; year-end market value over net income 188.06 / 17.879 = 10.5 (2015), 217.61 / 13.127 = 16.6 (2016), 215.92 / 30.101 = 7.2 (2017), 232.30 / 15.528 = 15.0 (2018), 253.94 / 19.265 = 13.2 (2019), 243.11 / 17.801 = 13.7 (2020), 215.12 / 22.065 = 9.7 (2021), 165.47 / 21.256 = 7.8 (2022), 158.49 / 11.614 = 13.6 (2023), 168.34 / 17.506 = 9.6 (2024), 171.74 / 17.174 = 10.0 (2025); trailing twelve months to June 2026 revenue 138,191 - 67,989 + 68,693 = 138,895, net income 17,174 - 9,882 + 8,880 = 16,172, 193.94 / 16.172 = 12.0, 193.94 / 138.895 = 1.40 - revenue, profit, costs and growth over time. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Verizon's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, quarterly results releases, the recast segment revenue 8-K, peer results releases (T-Mobile, AT&T, Comcast, Charter) and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedTotal assets grew from $244,175 million in 2015 to $404,258 million in 2025, 65.6%, while operating income fell from $30,615 million to $29,259 million.
    Verizon Form 10-K for fiscal 2019, Exhibit 13 - selected financial data for 2015-2019 (revenue, operating income, net income, EPS and dividends). — FY2015-FY2019 · publ. February 2020 · source ↗
  6. ReportedTotal assets grew from $244,175 million in 2015 to $404,258 million in 2025, 65.6%, while operating income fell from $30,615 million to $29,259 million.
    Verizon Communications Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - Item 1 business: services, networks, employees and the Frontier and Starry acquisitions. — FY2025 · publ. 17 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. Third-party estimateA third-party estimate is kinder: stockanalysis puts the trailing return on invested capital at 8.27% and the weighted average cost of capital at 4.24%.
    stockanalysis.com, Verizon statistics, 28 September 2026: enterprise value $385.24bn, EV/EBITDA 7.54, return on invested capital 8.27%, weighted average cost of capital 4.24%, free cash flow $21.53bn. — September 2026 · publ. 28 September 2026 · source ↗
  8. Third-party estimateThe gap between the two views is mostly the cost of capital assumed, and at a 6.06% dividend yield, a 4.24% cost of equity-plus-debt looks low.
    stockanalysis.com, Verizon quote page, 28 September 2026: price $46.68, market value $193.94bn, trailing P/E 12.16, forward P/E 9.20, dividend $2.83 (6.06%), 52-week range $38.39-$51.68, analyst target $51.58. — September 2026 · publ. 28 September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedTotal assets were $291,727 million at the end of 2019 and $404,258 million at the end of 2025, with wireless licences alone at $157,039 million.
    Verizon Form 10-K for fiscal 2019, Exhibit 13 - selected financial data for 2015-2019 (revenue, operating income, net income, EPS and dividends). — FY2015-FY2019 · publ. February 2020 · source ↗
  10. ReportedTotal assets were $291,727 million at the end of 2019 and $404,258 million at the end of 2025, with wireless licences alone at $157,039 million.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - income statement, segment EBITDA and highlights. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedTotal assets were $291,727 million at the end of 2019 and $404,258 million at the end of 2025, with wireless licences alone at $157,039 million.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - income statement, segment EBITDA and highlights. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedBy June 2026, after Frontier, they were $410,186 million.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - consolidated results and special items. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe Frontier purchase adds $22.3 billion of consideration to the base for a business the company says is "less than 5 %" of revenue.
    Verizon Communications Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 December 2025) - segment note (Note 13) and MD&A segment results: Consumer and Business revenue, operating income and costs. — FY2025 · publ. 17 February 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe Frontier purchase adds $22.3 billion of consideration to the base for a business the company says is "less than 5 %" of revenue.
    Verizon Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - Frontier purchase accounting, buybacks, spectrum purchases and remaining performance obligations. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 29, 2026