✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Verizon (VZ) — the future bets

Verizon's next two years rest on an acceleration to about 4% revenue growth, a restarted buyback and a claim about AI that has no number yet.

Verizon's future bets are mostly about proving that the turnaround is real. The company guides mobility and broadband service revenue growth of 2.5% to 3.0% for 2026, rising to about 4.0% in the fourth quarter1, adjusted EPS of $4.99 to $5.042 and free cash flow above $21.9 billion3.

The four bets in figuresQ4 2026 mobility and broadband growth, guided4.0%Share repurchases, H1 2026$3.5bn, 72.0 million sharesSpectrum bought, June 2026about $4.2bnAdjusted EPS guide, 2026$4.99-5.04Verizon Q2 2026 results release and Form 10-Q Q2 2026
Most of the plan is guidance, not yet results.

Four bets carry the outlook. Four Percent Growth by the Fourth Quarter is the revenue promise. Twenty-Five Billion Dollars of Buybacks is the capital return, restarted in 2026. More Spectrum: AWS-3 and UScellular is the capacity plan. AI Infrastructure: A Claim Without a Number is the story the chief executive is telling about the Business segment.

None of them is a new business. The one genuinely new operation, Frontier's fibre, is argued under Fibre and the Home, because it is now part of the moat rather than a bet on it.

The leadership is committed to the plan. Schulman's term was extended to 31 December 20284, the same horizon as the $55 billion capital-return plan5, and his performance stock units carry a "$30 million target value"6.

The market's view is modest. Analysts' average target was $51.587 against a price of $46.688, and the shares traded at 9.20 times forward earnings9.

The guidance has already been raised twice. In April the company was "raising our 2026 Adjusted EPS 1 guidance to year-over-year growth of 5.0 to 6.0 percent"10, and in July to 6.0% to 7.0%11. Adjusted EPS was $4.71 in 202512. The postpaid phone target moved to the "upper half of the 750,000 to 1.0 million range"13, against 362 thousand in 202514.

The combined wager is visible in the fourth quarter. If mobility and broadband service revenue growth is below 3.5% in that quarter while adjusted EPS still meets guidance, the earnings will be coming from cost cuts and buybacks rather than from the turnaround in revenue.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Guidance raised twice in 2026.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Adjusted EPS guidance, full year 2026
$4.99 to $5.04 (July 2026), from $4.90 to $4.95 in January; 2025 actual $4.71

The combined wager; meeting it with revenue growth below 3.5% in Q4 would mean cuts and buybacks, not revenue, did the work.

Source: Verizon Q2 2026 results release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Four Percent Growth by the Fourth Quarter
Verizon promises about 4% growth in its main revenue measure by the fourth quarter of 2026, a measure that includes the Frontier fibre business it…
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Twenty-Five Billion Dollars of Buybacks
Verizon bought back $3.5 billion of stock in six months at about an 11% free cash flow yield, while its leverage was at 2.5 times after Frontier.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
More Spectrum: AWS-3 and UScellular
Verizon spent about $4.2 billion on airwaves in June 2026 alone, outside the capital budget it promised to cut.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
AI Infrastructure: A Claim Without a Number
Verizon's chief executive says AI infrastructure revenue is reshaping the company's growth, but no figure for it has been disclosed.
References
  1. ReportedThe company guides mobility and broadband service revenue growth of 2.5% to 3.0% for 2026, rising to about 4.0% in the fourth quarter, adjusted EPS of $4.99 to $5.04 and free cash flow above $21.9 billion.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - broadband statistics: fiber and fixed wireless connections and net additions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe company guides mobility and broadband service revenue growth of 2.5% to 3.0% for 2026, rising to about 4.0% in the fourth quarter, adjusted EPS of $4.99 to $5.04 and free cash flow above $21.9 billion.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - broadband statistics: fiber and fixed wireless connections and net additions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe company guides mobility and broadband service revenue growth of 2.5% to 3.0% for 2026, rising to about 4.0% in the fourth quarter, adjusted EPS of $4.99 to $5.04 and free cash flow above $21.9 billion.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - broadband statistics: fiber and fixed wireless connections and net additions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedSchulman's term was extended to 31 December 2028, the same horizon as the $55 billion capital-return plan, and his performance stock units carry a "$30 million target value".
    Verizon Form 8-K of 24 July 2026, Item 5.02 - Dan Schulman's term extended to 31 December 2028. — July 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedSchulman's term was extended to 31 December 2028, the same horizon as the $55 billion capital-return plan, and his performance stock units carry a "$30 million target value".
    Verizon Form 8-K of 30 January 2026, Item 7.01 - capital-return capacity of about $55 billion through 2028, a $25 billion buyback authorisation and the dividend raised to 70.75 cents. — January 2026 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSchulman's term was extended to 31 December 2028, the same horizon as the $55 billion capital-return plan, and his performance stock units carry a "$30 million target value".
    Verizon Form 8-K of 12 January 2026, Item 5.02 - Dan Schulman's performance stock unit award with a $30 million target value. — January 2026 · publ. 12 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. Third-party estimateAnalysts' average target was $51.58 against a price of $46.68, and the shares traded at 9.20 times forward earnings.
    stockanalysis.com, Verizon quote page, 28 September 2026: price $46.68, market value $193.94bn, trailing P/E 12.16, forward P/E 9.20, dividend $2.83 (6.06%), 52-week range $38.39-$51.68, analyst target $51.58. — September 2026 · publ. 28 September 2026 · source ↗
  8. Third-party estimateAnalysts' average target was $51.58 against a price of $46.68, and the shares traded at 9.20 times forward earnings.
    stockanalysis.com, Verizon quote page, 28 September 2026: price $46.68, market value $193.94bn, trailing P/E 12.16, forward P/E 9.20, dividend $2.83 (6.06%), 52-week range $38.39-$51.68, analyst target $51.58. — September 2026 · publ. 28 September 2026 · source ↗
  9. Third-party estimateAnalysts' average target was $51.58 against a price of $46.68, and the shares traded at 9.20 times forward earnings.
    stockanalysis.com, Verizon quote page, 28 September 2026: price $46.68, market value $193.94bn, trailing P/E 12.16, forward P/E 9.20, dividend $2.83 (6.06%), 52-week range $38.39-$51.68, analyst target $51.58. — September 2026 · publ. 28 September 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIn April the company was "raising our 2026 Adjusted EPS 1 guidance to year-over-year growth of 5.0 to 6.0 percent", and in July to 6.0% to 7.0%.
    Verizon first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - first-quarter postpaid phone net additions and the first guidance raise. — Q1 2026 · publ. 27 April 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedIn April the company was "raising our 2026 Adjusted EPS 1 guidance to year-over-year growth of 5.0 to 6.0 percent", and in July to 6.0% to 7.0%.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - cash flow, balance sheet, capital returns and guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedAdjusted EPS was $4.71 in 2025.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - income statement, segment EBITDA and highlights. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe postpaid phone target moved to the "upper half of the 750,000 to 1.0 million range", against 362 thousand in 2025.
    Verizon second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - consolidated and segment results, operating statistics, cash flow, balance sheet and guidance - consolidated results and special items. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe postpaid phone target moved to the "upper half of the 750,000 to 1.0 million range", against 362 thousand in 2025.
    Verizon fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - full-year operating statistics, segment EBITDA, free cash flow 2020-2025 and 2026 guidance - income statement, segment EBITDA and highlights. — FY2025 · publ. 30 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 29, 2026