⚠ Research Charged, Not CapitalisedModerate threat

Merck & Co. (MRK) — threat to the moat

Merck's reported profit swings from $365 million to $17 billion on its deal calendar, so no single year tells you what it earns.

Because Merck charges acquired research to expense, its reported earnings swing on its deal calendar. Net income was $14,519 million in 2022, $365 million in 2023 and $17,117 million in 202412. In the first half of 2026 it was a loss of $5,575 million3.

Net income attributable ($M)14,5192022365202317,117202418,2542025Merck Forms 10-K FY2022 and FY2025
A loss-sized dip every time it buys.

The swings make ordinary measures unreliable. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio was 116.26 in September 2026, against a forward ratio of 17.194. Merck's own return on invested capital, computed from its filings, fell to 2.7% in 2023 before recovering to 22.9% in 20255.

The deeper risk is that good years look better than they are. In a year without large deals, research expense falls and earnings look strong, but the pipeline replacement is not being paid for.

The swings go back further. Net income was $2,394 million in 2017, a year depressed by tax reform, and $9,843 million in 20196; the 2023 figure of $365 million7 is the lowest in the eleven years from 2015. Each trough was an accounting event rather than an operating one.

The fairer test is to average. Across 2023 to 2025 Merck's net income was about $35.7 billion8; judging the company on that average rather than on the best year would show whether its earnings power grows once the cost of buying the pipeline is counted.

References
  1. ReportedNet income was $14,519 million in 2022, $365 million in 2023 and $17,117 million in 2024.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions, research and segment profit. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedNet income was $14,519 million in 2022, $365 million in 2023 and $17,117 million in 2024.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 - net income for 2022. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 it was a loss of $5,575 million.
    Merck second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - earnings, charges and 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe trailing price-to-earnings ratio was 116.26 in September 2026, against a forward ratio of 17.19.
    Merck & Co. (MRK) market data - $147.98 at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $365.09B, trailing P/E 116.26, forward P/E 17.19, trailing net income $3.17B, 52-week range 77.58-156.92. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcMerck's own return on invested capital, computed from its filings, fell to 2.7% in 2023 before recovering to 22.9% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from SEC EDGAR XBRL for CIK 310158: return on invested capital 6.9% (2015), 6.2% (2016), 7.0% (2017), 11.7% (2018), 12.0% (2019), 9.5% (2020), 20.1% (2021), 21.1% (2022), 2.7% (2023), 24.4% (2024), 22.9% (2025). Merck tags no operating income, so EBIT is pre-tax income plus interest expense (2025: 21,067 + 1,357); invested capital 75,444 (2024) and 93,974 (2025). — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: NOPAT (pre-tax income plus interest expense, times one minus the effective tax rate) divided by average operating invested capital (total assets less current liabilities less cash), from SEC EDGAR XBRL via a copy of tools_roic_edgar.py. Acquired research charged to expense depresses 2023 and will depress 2026; 2019-2020 combine restated continuing-operations earnings with pre-spin balance sheets.
  6. ReportedNet income was $2,394 million in 2017, a year depressed by tax reform, and $9,843 million in 2019; the 2023 figure of $365 million is the lowest in the eleven years from 2015.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2019 - receivables concentration of the three largest wholesalers at the end of 2019. — FY2019 · publ. February 2020 · source ↗
  7. ReportedNet income was $2,394 million in 2017, a year depressed by tax reform, and $9,843 million in 2019; the 2023 figure of $365 million is the lowest in the eleven years from 2015.
    Merck & Co. Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions, research and segment profit. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcAcross 2023 to 2025 Merck's net income was about $35.7 billion; judging the company on that average rather than on the best year would show whether its earnings power grows once the cost of buying the pipeline is counted.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Merck's reported sales, segment and financial statement figures ($ millions unless stated). Lines 2025: Keytruda 31,641 + Keytruda Qlex 40 = 31,681; other pharmaceutical 58,142 - 31,681 - 5,233 = 21,228; Animal Health 6,354; other revenue 515; total 31,681 + 5,233 + 21,228 + 6,354 + 515 = 65,011. 2024: 29,482; 57,400 - 29,482 - 8,583 = 19,335. 2023: 53,583 - 25,011 - 8,886 = 19,686. 2022: 52,005 - 20,937 - 6,897 = 24,171. 2021: 42,754 - 17,186 - 5,673 = 19,895. Everything else 2025: 65,011 - 31,681 = 33,330. Keytruda share of sales: 11,084 / 39,121 = 28.3% (2019, continuing basis); 17,186 / 48,704 = 35.3% (2021); 25,011 / 60,115 = 41.6% (2023); 31,681 / 65,011 = 48.7% (2025); Q2 2026 8,366 / 16,607 = 50.4%. Keytruda and Gardasil Q2 2026 (8,366 + 1,169) / 16,607 = 9,535 / 16,607 = 57.4%. Qlex 463 / 8,366 = 5.5%. Keytruda growth: 31,641 / 29,482 - 1 = 7.3% (2025); 29,482 / 25,011 - 1 = 17.9% (2024); 31,641 / 17,186 = 1.84, compound (1.84)^(1/4) - 1 = 16.5% a year; 31,641 / 11,084 = 2.85 (2019-2025). US share of Keytruda 18,829 / 31,641 = 59.5%. International Keytruda 12,812 / 11,610 - 1 = 10.4%; US Keytruda 18,829 / 17,872 - 1 = 5.4%. US Keytruda share of total sales 18,829 / 65,011 = 29.0%. Royalty: 2.5% x 31,681 = 792; 6.5% x 31,681 = 2,059. Gardasil US royalty 7% x 2,641 = 185. Winrevair royalty 22% x 1,443 = 317; 22% x 419 = 92; Winrevair Q2 2026 588 x 4 = 2,352, 22% x 2,352 = 517. Segment margins: Pharmaceutical 45,754 / 58,142 = 78.7% (2025); Q2 2026 11,612 / 14,760 = 78.7% (recast basis). Animal Health 2,131 / 6,354 = 33.5% (2025); 1,938 / 5,877 = 33.0% (2024); 1,737 / 5,625 = 30.9% (2023); 1,963 / 5,550 = 35.4% (2022); 1,950 / 5,568 = 35.0% (2021); Q2 2026 636 / 1,775 = 35.8%. Unallocated research 14,987 / 58,142 = 25.8%; Animal Health research 448 / 6,354 = 7.1%. Animal Health segment profit 2,131 / 45,754 = 4.7% of Pharmaceutical. Gardasil: international 2,592 / 6,158 - 1 = -57.9%; US 2,641 / 2,083 - 1 = 26.8%; share 5,233 / 65,011 = 8.0%; share of sales 2021 5,673 / 48,704 = 11.6%, 2022 6,897 / 59,283 = 11.6%, 2023 8,886 / 60,115 = 14.8%, 2024 8,583 / 64,168 = 13.4%; Q2 2026 1,169 x 4 = 4,676. Vaccines H1 2026 2,314 + 2,361 = 4,675; H1 2025 2,607 + 2,370 = 4,977; 4,675 / 4,977 - 1 = -6.1%. Childhood vaccines growth 2,368 / 2,241 - 1 = 5.7%; 2,485 / 2,368 - 1 = 4.9%; 2,451 / 2,485 - 1 = -1.4%. Pneumococcal: Pneumovax 166 / 893 - 1 = -81%; 825 + 759 + 166 = 1,750; 1,750 / 893 = 2.0; (825 + 759) / 166 = 9.5; Capvaxive + Vaxneuvance 759 + 825 = 1,584; 1,584 / 6,494 = 24.4% of Prevnar. Animal Health: livestock 3,896 / 6,354 = 61.3%; livestock growth 3,300 / 3,295 - 1 = 0.2%, 3,337 / 3,300 - 1 = 1.1%, 3,462 / 3,337 - 1 = 3.7%, 3,896 / 3,462 - 1 = 12.5%; companion 2,458 / 2,415 - 1 = 1.8%, 2,458 / 2,273 - 1 = 8.1%; companion excluding Bravecto 2,458 - 1,100 = 1,358; rest of Animal Health 6,354 - 1,100 = 5,254; Bravecto 359 / 335 - 1 = 7%. Segment 6,354 / 5,877 - 1 = 8.1%; 5,625 / 5,568 - 1 = 1.0%; Q2 2026 1,775 / 1,646 - 1 = 7.8%; compound (6,354 / 5,568)^(1/4) - 1 = 3.4% a year; share 6,354 / 65,011 = 9.8%; 6,354 / 31,681 = 0.20 of Keytruda; 6,354 / 9,467 = 67% of Zoetis; Zoetis 9,467 / 9,256 - 1 = 2.3%. Competitors: Keytruda 31,641 / Opdivo 10,049 = 3.1. Geography: US 36,510 / 65,011 = 56.2%; China 1,939 / 6,802 - 1 = -71%; China share 4,378 / 48,704 = 9.0% (2021), 6,802 / 60,115 = 11.3% (2023), 5,494 / 64,168 = 8.6% (2024), 1,939 / 65,011 = 3.0% (2025); other regions 65,011 - 36,510 - 14,580 - 2,711 - 1,939 = 9,271. Wholesaler receivables 22% + 21% + 13% = 56% (2025); 21 + 21 + 13 = 55 (2024); 21 + 20 + 14 = 55 (2023). Januvia and Janumet: 3,324 + 1,964 = 5,288 (2021); 2,189 + 1,177 = 3,366 (2023); 1,334 + 935 = 2,269 (2024); 1,604 + 940 = 2,544 (2025). Newer products Q2 2026: 588 + 271 + 204 + 184 = 1,247; 1,247 / 8,366 = 14.9%. Bridion 1,841 / 4 = 460 a quarter. Other pharmaceutical Q2 2026 14,760 - 8,366 - 1,169 = 5,225; Q2 2025 14,050 - 7,956 - 1,126 = 4,968; 5,225 / 4,968 - 1 = 5.2%; 2025 share 21,228 / 65,011 = 32.7%. Research: 30,531 / 60,115 = 50.8% of sales (2023). Charges 2026 9.0 + 5.7 = 14.7 bn; per share 3.62 + 2.31 = 5.93. Ohtuvayre 204 x 4 = 816; 12,100 / 816 = 14.8. Tax guidance midpoints (23.5 + 24.5) / 2 = 24.0; (35.0 + 36.0) / 2 = 35.5. Balance sheet: net debt end-2025 2,589 + 46,750 - 14,565 = 34,774; end-2024 2,649 + 34,462 - 13,242 - 447 = 23,422; end-2023 1,372 + 33,683 - 6,841 - 252 = 27,962; 30 June 2026 2,825 + 51,081 - 6,849 - 292 = 46,765, cash and short-term investments 6,849 + 292 = 7,141; net debt to equity 34,774 / 52,606 = 0.66; 46,765 / 41,933 = 1.1. Net income 2023-2025 365 + 17,117 + 18,254 = 35,736. Valuation: year-end 2025 market value 261.26 bn / net income 18.254 bn = 14.3; free cash flow 2025 16,472 - 4,112 = 12,360; 12,360 / 365,090 = 3.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: sales 65,011 - 31,335 + 32,893 = 66,569; net income 18,254 - 9,506 - 5,575 = 3,173. EPS guidance midpoints (5.00 + 5.15) / 2 = 5.075; (5.04 + 5.16) / 2 = 5.10; (2.66 + 2.76) / 2 = 2.71. Protection from 2026: 2043 - 2026 = 17 years; 2028 - 2026 = 2 years. Year-end P/E = market value / net income: 147.55 / 4.442 = 33.2 (2015); 162.31 / 3.920 = 41.4 (2016); 153.30 / 2.394 = 64.0 (2017); 198.69 / 6.220 = 31.9 (2018); 231.56 / 9.843 = 23.5 (2019); 206.96 / 7.067 = 29.3 (2020); 193.59 / 13.049 = 14.8 (2021); 281.30 / 14.519 = 19.4 (2022); 276.26 / 0.365 = 757 (2023); 251.65 / 17.117 = 14.7 (2024); 261.26 / 18.254 = 14.3 (2025); 365.09 / 3.173 = 115.1 (TTM). Return on average equity 2025: 18,254 / ((52,606 + 46,313) / 2) = 18,254 / 49,460 = 36.9%. Gross profit 2025 65,011 - 16,382 = 48,629; 48,629 / 65,011 = 74.8%; royalty 792 / 16,382 = 4.8% of cost of sales. Keytruda increase 2021-2025 31,681 - 17,186 = 14,495; sales increase 65,011 - 48,704 = 16,307. US sales 36,510 / 28,480 - 1 = 28%. Pharmaceutical margin 2021 30,977 / 42,754 = 72.5%. Livestock less companion 3,295 - 2,273 = 1,022 (2021); 3,896 - 2,458 = 1,438 (2025). Prevnar 6,494 / Vaxneuvance 825 = 7.9. Animal Health 2025 6,354 against Keytruda franchise Q2 2026 8,366 - product and segment totals, growth and royalties. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Merck's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, the Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer and Zoetis 10-Ks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026