⚠ Stelara: Forty-One Percent Gone in One YearHigh threat

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — threat to the moat

One patent expiry took six points of growth from a $94 billion company in a single year.

Stelara is the clearest measure of what happens to J&J when a patent ends. Sales fell from $10,361 million in 2024 to $6,078 million in 2025, a decline of 41.3%1, driven by biosimilar competition and Medicare Part D redesign2. United States Stelara sales were approximately $3.8 billion in 20253.

Stelara worldwide sales ($M)10,858202310,36120246,07820253,278H1 20251,396H1 2026J&J Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 financial schedules
Down 57% again in the first half of 2026.

The fall has not finished. In the first half of 2026 Stelara sold $1,396 million, down 57.4%, and in the United States $556 million against $2,059 million, down 73.0%4. The company expects continued launches of biosimilar versions of Stelara globally which will continue to negatively impact sales5.

The damage reached the whole company. The filing puts the Stelara decline at approximately 6.2% of J&J's worldwide operational sales in 20256. One product's expiry took six points of growth from a $94 billion company.

The pattern also shows the geographic lag. In the first half of 2026 international Stelara sales fell 31.1% while United States sales fell 73.0%7. Europe and other markets move more slowly, which means the drag outside the United States has further to run even as the American decline nears its end. That is why J&J's international Innovative Medicine operational growth was only 3.6% in the second quarter against 8.9% in the United States8.

The cost reached the margin too. The filing lists unfavourable product mix driven by the decline of Stelara sales among the reasons cost of products sold rose as a share of sales in 20259. A high-margin biologic losing half its volume leaves fixed manufacturing costs spread over fewer units, so the damage to profit is larger than the damage to sales.

What remains to lose is the Stelara base: $740 million in the second quarter of 202610. Once it falls below a few hundred million a quarter the drag on growth largely ends, and J&J's reported growth rate will look better without anything changing underneath.

References
  1. ReportedSales fell from $10,361 million in 2024 to $6,078 million in 2025, a decline of 41.3%, driven by biosimilar competition and Medicare Part D redesign.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedSales fell from $10,361 million in 2024 to $6,078 million in 2025, a decline of 41.3%, driven by biosimilar competition and Medicare Part D redesign.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedUnited States Stelara sales were approximately $3.8 billion in 2025.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 Stelara sold $1,396 million, down 57.4%, and in the United States $556 million against $2,059 million, down 73.0%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe company expects continued launches of biosimilar versions of Stelara globally which will continue to negatively impact sales.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe filing puts the Stelara decline at approximately 6.2% of J&J's worldwide operational sales in 2025.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: Innovative Medicine segment, therapeutic-area and product sales analysis. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 international Stelara sales fell 31.1% while United States sales fell 73.0%.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThat is why J&J's international Innovative Medicine operational growth was only 3.6% in the second quarter against 8.9% in the United States.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe filing lists unfavourable product mix driven by the decline of Stelara sales among the reasons cost of products sold rose as a share of sales in 2025.
    Johnson & Johnson Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 28 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A: rebate accrual tables, research and development, cost of products sold, debt and liquidity. — FY2025 · publ. 11 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedWhat remains to lose is the Stelara base: $740 million in the second quarter of 2026.
    Johnson & Johnson second-quarter 2026 supplementary sales data, statement of earnings and non-GAAP reconciliation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.2 - Innovative Medicine and total sales by product, segment and region. — Q2 2026 · publ. 15 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026