⚠ Returns Measured at the TopModerate threat

Dell Technologies (DELL) — threat to the moat

Dell's return on capital rose from below zero to 23.8% in seven years, and part of that is a boom that will not last forever.

Dell's return on invested capital looks excellent now, 23.8% in fiscal 2026 against 20.2% in fiscal 2025 and 16.0% in fiscal 20241. But the same calculation gave negative returns from fiscal 2016 through fiscal 2019 and only 3.3% in fiscal 20202.

Return on invested capital by fiscal year (%)3.3%FY20206.0%FY20219.0%FY202215.4%FY202316.0%FY202420.2%FY202523.8%FY2026Moat Explorer calculation from SEC EDGAR; negative in FY2016-FY2019
From negative to 23.8%.

Some of the change is accounting: amortisation of EMC intangibles depressed operating income for years and has faded3. Some is the business: fiscal 2026 operating income of $8,149 million was a record4. But the latest years also include an extraordinary boom in AI hardware.

Returns calculated at a peak flatter a cyclical business. A hardware company that earned 6% on capital in fiscal 2021 and 24% in fiscal 20265 has not necessarily quadrupled its moat; it may have met an exceptional market.

Operating income itself tells the story. It was $2,622 million in fiscal 20206 and $8,149 million in fiscal 20267, about three times as much8, while the capital base shrank as EMC amortisation ran off. Both halves of the ratio moved in Dell's favour at once.

The test is the next downturn. If ROIC stays above 15% through a year of falling hardware revenue, the improvement is structural; if it drops back toward single digits, it was the cycle.

References
  1. Moat Explorer calcDell's return on invested capital looks excellent now, 23.8% in fiscal 2026 against 20.2% in fiscal 2025 and 16.0% in fiscal 2024.
    Moat Explorer calculation, tools_roic_edgar.py method on SEC EDGAR XBRL for CIK 1571996: return on invested capital -2.5% (FY2016), -3.7% (FY2017), -2.8% (FY2018), -0.2% (FY2019), 3.3% (FY2020), 6.0% (FY2021), 9.0% (FY2022), 15.4% (FY2023), 16.0% (FY2024), 20.2% (FY2025), 23.8% (FY2026); fiscal years labelled by the year they end. — FY2016-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: NOPAT (operating income x (1 - effective tax rate)) divided by average operating invested capital (total assets less current liabilities less cash), from SEC EDGAR XBRL via the tools_roic_edgar.py method. Operating income before FY2023 is after heavy amortisation of EMC intangibles, which kept the ratio negative through FY2019.
  2. Moat Explorer calcBut the same calculation gave negative returns from fiscal 2016 through fiscal 2019 and only 3.3% in fiscal 2020.
    Moat Explorer calculation, tools_roic_edgar.py method on SEC EDGAR XBRL for CIK 1571996: return on invested capital -2.5% (FY2016), -3.7% (FY2017), -2.8% (FY2018), -0.2% (FY2019), 3.3% (FY2020), 6.0% (FY2021), 9.0% (FY2022), 15.4% (FY2023), 16.0% (FY2024), 20.2% (FY2025), 23.8% (FY2026); fiscal years labelled by the year they end. — FY2016-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: NOPAT (operating income x (1 - effective tax rate)) divided by average operating invested capital (total assets less current liabilities less cash), from SEC EDGAR XBRL via the tools_roic_edgar.py method. Operating income before FY2023 is after heavy amortisation of EMC intangibles, which kept the ratio negative through FY2019.
  3. ReportedSome of the change is accounting: amortisation of EMC intangibles depressed operating income for years and has faded.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 January 2026) - financial statements and notes: balance sheet, debt, cash flow, capital returns and deferred revenue. — FY2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedSome is the business: fiscal 2026 operating income of $8,149 million was a record.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 January 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and segment note: ISG and CSG revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcA hardware company that earned 6% on capital in fiscal 2021 and 24% in fiscal 2026 has not necessarily quadrupled its moat; it may have met an exceptional market.
    Moat Explorer calculation, tools_roic_edgar.py method on SEC EDGAR XBRL for CIK 1571996: return on invested capital -2.5% (FY2016), -3.7% (FY2017), -2.8% (FY2018), -0.2% (FY2019), 3.3% (FY2020), 6.0% (FY2021), 9.0% (FY2022), 15.4% (FY2023), 16.0% (FY2024), 20.2% (FY2025), 23.8% (FY2026); fiscal years labelled by the year they end. — FY2016-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: NOPAT (operating income x (1 - effective tax rate)) divided by average operating invested capital (total assets less current liabilities less cash), from SEC EDGAR XBRL via the tools_roic_edgar.py method. Operating income before FY2023 is after heavy amortisation of EMC intangibles, which kept the ratio negative through FY2019.
  6. ReportedIt was $2,622 million in fiscal 2020 and $8,149 million in fiscal 2026, about three times as much, while the capital base shrank as EMC amortisation ran off.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - five-year selected data (fiscal 2016-2020), net income attributable and debt balances. — FY2020 · publ. March 2020 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt was $2,622 million in fiscal 2020 and $8,149 million in fiscal 2026, about three times as much, while the capital base shrank as EMC amortisation ran off.
    Dell Technologies Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 January 2026) - Item 1 business: history, customers, employees, channels and management. — FY2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcIt was $2,622 million in fiscal 2020 and $8,149 million in fiscal 2026, about three times as much, while the capital base shrank as EMC amortisation ran off.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Dell Technologies' reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years labelled by the year they end). Margins FY2026: gross margin 22,707 / 113,538 = 20.0% (FY2024 21,069 / 88,425 = 23.8%; FY2025 21,250 / 95,567 = 22.2%); operating margin 8,149 / 113,538 = 7.2%. Products gross margin 90,405 - 78,057 = 12,348, 12,348 / 90,405 = 13.7%; services gross margin 23,133 - 12,774 = 10,359, 10,359 / 23,133 = 44.8%; services share of revenue 23,133 / 113,538 = 20.4%; services share of gross margin 10,359 / 22,707 = 45.6%. Growth FY2026: revenue 113,538 / 95,567 - 1 = 18.8%; services 23,133 / 24,147 - 1 = -4.2%; ISG revenue 60,826 / 43,593 - 1 = 39.5%; ISG operating income 7,111 / 5,579 - 1 = 27.5%; United States 63,140 / 51,014 - 1 = 23.8%; foreign 50,398 / 44,553 - 1 = 13.1%. Revenue FY2024 to FY2026 113,538 / 88,425 - 1 = 28.4%; employees 97,000 / 120,000 - 1 = -19.2%; revenue per employee 88,425 / 120,000 = 0.74 and 113,538 / 97,000 = 1.17. AI servers: 24,683 / 1,873 = 13.2 times; share of revenue 24,683 / 113,538 = 21.7% (FY2024 1,873 / 88,425 = 2.1%); share of ISG 24,683 / 60,826 = 40.6%; Q2 FY2027 share of ISG 16,401 / 31,782 = 51.6%; first half 16,132 + 16,401 = 32,533, 32,533 / 74,000 = 44.0%; second half needed 74,000 - 32,533 = 41,467, about 20,700 a quarter; FY2027 guidance share 74.0 / 192.0 = 38.5%; FY2027 guidance 74.0 / 24.683 = 3.0 times. Orders: Q4 FY2026 AI orders about 64 - 30 = 34 billion; Q2 FY2027 orders to revenue 60.9 / 16.4 = 3.7. ISG share of segment operating income: FY2024 4,286 / 7,998 = 53.6%; FY2026 7,111 / 9,944 = 71.5%. Q2 FY2027 CSG share 1,142 / (4,781 + 1,142) = 19.3%. ISG operating margin: FY2022 3,736 / 34,366 = 10.9%; FY2023 5,045 / 38,356 = 13.2%. CSG operating margin: FY2024 3,712 / 48,916 = 7.6%; Q1 FY2026 653 / 12,509 = 5.2%; Q2 FY2026 803 / 12,503 = 6.4%; Q4 FY2026 629 / 13,494 = 4.7%; Q1 FY2027 1,170 / 14,609 = 8.0%; Q2 FY2027 1,142 / 15,034 = 7.6%. CSG operating income FY2022 to FY2026 2,833 / 4,365 - 1 = -35.1%. Q2 FY2027 client: CSG revenue 15,034 / 12,503 - 1 = 20.2%; CSG operating income 1,142 / 803 - 1 = 42.2%. Traditional servers and networking first half FY2027 8,543 + 10,531 = 19,074. Servers and networking growth FY2025 27,136 / 17,624 - 1 = 54.0%, FY2026 44,195 / 27,136 - 1 = 62.9%; share of revenue 44,195 / 113,538 = 38.9%; Q2 FY2027 16,401 + 10,531 = 26,932, 26,932 / 46,971 = 57.3%. Line changes FY2022 to FY2026: servers and networking 44,195 / 17,901 - 1 = 146.9%; storage 16,631 / 16,465 - 1 = 1.0%; commercial 44,062 / 45,576 - 1 = -3.3%; consumer 6,922 / 15,888 - 1 = -56.4%. Storage 16,631 / 17,958 - 1 = -7.4%; storage share of revenue 16,631 / 113,538 = 14.6%; storage share of ISG 16,631 / 60,826 = 27.3%. Consumer share of revenue 15,888 / 101,197 = 15.7% (FY2022) and 6,922 / 113,538 = 6.1% (FY2026); consumer against FY2015 6,922 / 10,880 - 1 = -36.4%. Commercial share of revenue 44,062 / 113,538 = 38.8%. Servers and networking plus commercial 44,195 + 44,062 = 88,257, 88,257 / 113,538 = 77.7%. Corporate and other FY2022 101,197 - 17,901 - 16,465 - 45,576 - 15,888 = 5,367; corporate and other change 1,728 / 5,624 - 1 = -69.3%. Geography: United States share 43,986 / 88,425 = 49.7% (FY2024), 51,014 / 95,567 = 53.4% (FY2025), 63,140 / 113,538 = 55.6% (FY2026). Largest customer: 12% x 113,538 = 13,625; 13,625 / 60,826 = 22.4% of ISG; all other customers 113,538 - 13,625 = 99,913. Remaining performance obligations due within twelve months: 132 x 77% = 101.6 billion. Server share: Dell lead over Supermicro 16.5 - 7.6 = 8.9 points in Q1 2026 against 10 - 9.5 = 0.5 points in 2025; Supermicro plus HPE 7.6 + 3.0 = 10.6%. Inventories 21,290 / 10,437 = 2.04 times; payables 49,723 - 33,630 = 16,093; inventory increase 21,290 - 10,437 = 10,853; payables less inventories 49,723 - 21,290 = 28,433; payables less inventories and receivables 49,723 - 21,290 - 22,918 = 5,515. DFS-related debt 20,660 / 14,646 - 1 = 41.1%. Debt: FY2020 7,737 + 44,319 = 52,056; net core debt 13,983 - 11,569 = 2,414; net debt 31,503 - 11,528 = 19,975 (January 2026) and 34,466 - 11,569 = 22,897 (July 2026); interest paid 1,354 / 8,149 = 16.6%. Goodwill and intangibles 19,547 + 4,533 = 24,080, 24,080 / 101,286 = 23.8%; other assets 101,286 - 24,080 = 77,206. Capital returns: buybacks first half FY2027 5.4 billion / 20 million shares = about $270 a share; dividends paid 1,459 / 5,936 = 24.6% of net income; annual dividend 0.37 x 4 = 1.48, 0.445 x 4 = 1.78, 0.525 x 4 = 2.10, 0.63 x 4 = 2.52, 2.52 / 1.48 - 1 = 70%; Q2 FY2027 buybacks and dividends 3,796 + 405 = 4,201. Guidance: FY2027 revenue 192.0 / 113.538 - 1 = 69%; non-AI revenue 192.0 - 74.0 = 118.0 against 113,538 - 24,683 = 88,855, 118.0 / 88.855 - 1 = 32.8%; implied second half 192.0 - 90.8 = 101.2 billion; implied fourth quarter 101.2 - 49.0 = 52.2 billion; implied second-half GAAP EPS 24.37 - 11.58 = 12.79; guidance raised 192 - 140 = 52 billion. Voting at 1 September 2026: Class A 276,744,341 / 635,812,750 = 43.5% of shares; votes 276.7 million x 10 = 2,767 million, Class B 43.6 million x 10 = 436 million, Class C 315.4 million; total 3,519 million; Class A 2,767 / 3,519 = 78.6%, Class B 436 / 3,519 = 12.4%, Class C 315 / 3,519 = 9.0%. Valuation: trailing revenue 113,538 - 53,154 + 90,813 = 151,197; trailing net income 5,936 - 2,129 + 7,571 = 11,378; P/E 357.89 / 11.378 = 31.5; P/S 357.89 / 151.2 = 2.37; year-end market value over the next fiscal year: 37.89 / 4.616 = 8.2, 54.95 / 3.250 = 16.9, 42.90 / 5.563 = 7.7, 28.80 / 2.442 = 11.8, 54.43 / 3.388 = 16.1, 82.18 / 4.592 = 17.9, 86.61 / 5.936 = 14.6. Q2 FY2027 cash from operations 2,225 / 4,133 = 54%. Further: ISG operating income 7,111 / 4,286 - 1 = 65.9%; Q2 FY2026 AI orders about 30 - 12.1 - 12.3 = 5.6 billion; operating income 8,149 / 2,622 = 3.1 times (FY2020 to FY2026); NVIDIA Data Center revenue against Dell ISG revenue 89.0 / 31.782 = 2.8 times; buybacks 2,080 + 2,588 + 6,014 = 10,682; ISG revenue 60,826 / 14,714 = 4.1 times (FY2015 to FY2026); IEIT, Lenovo and HPE 2025 server shares 4.1 + 4.0 + 3.1 = 11.2%; Commercial share of client revenue 45,576 / 61,464 = 74.2% (FY2022), 39,814 / 48,916 = 81.4% (FY2024); consumer share of revenue 9,102 / 88,425 = 10.3% (FY2024); Dell server growth against the market 244.1 / 80.4 = 3.0 times. Services share of Q2 FY2027 revenue 5,859 / 46,971 = 12.5%; commercial share of client revenue 44,062 / 50,984 = 86.4%; client revenue growth FY2026 50,984 / 48,393 - 1 = 5.4%; consumer Q1 FY2027 1,589 / 1,463 - 1 = 8.6%; CSG first half FY2027 2,312 / 29,643 = 7.8%; annual dividend cost 0.63 x 4 x 635.8 million = about 1,602; remaining performance obligations 132 / 38 = 3.5 times; EPS guidance 24.37 / 11.52 = 2.1 times; AI backlog against second-half AI revenue needed 95 / 41.5 = 2.3 times; commercial first half FY2027 13,020 + 13,192 = 26,212, 26,212 / 44,062 = 59.5%; storage share of ISG 16,261 / 33,885 = 48.0% (FY2024) and 4,850 / 31,782 = 15.3% (Q2 FY2027); consumer share of Q2 FY2027 revenue 1,842 / 46,971 = 3.9%; AI orders less AI revenue in Q2 FY2027 60.9 - 16.4 = 44.5 billion; consumer share of client revenue 10,880 / 39,634 = 27.5% (FY2015) and 6,922 / 50,984 = 13.6% (FY2026) - segment margins and growth rates. — FY2015-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Dell Technologies' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, IDC data and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026