Humira: $21.2 Billion to $4.5 BillionWide moat

AbbVie (ABBV) — moat facet

AbbVie lost $16.7 billion of Humira sales in three years and still grew, which is the strongest evidence of a pharmaceutical moat in this collection.

Humira was the best-selling drug in AbbVie's history and the reason the company existed. It sold $19,936 million in 20181, peaked at $21,237 million in 20222, and made up about 58% of AbbVie's revenue in 20193. American biosimilars arrived after loss of exclusivity on 31 January 20234.

Humira net revenues ($M)19,936201821,237202214,40420238,99320244,5402025AbbVie Forms 10-K FY2018, FY2024, FY2025
Down 79% from the peak.

The decline was fast. Humira sold $14,404 million in 2023, $8,993 million in 2024 and $4,540 million in 20255, a fall of about 79% from the peak6. Its share of AbbVie's revenue went from 37% in 20227 to about 7.4% in 20258. In the second quarter of 2026 American Humira sales were $425 million9, and total Humira sales fell 35.9%10.

The remarkable thing is what did not happen. AbbVie's net revenues were $58,054 million in 2022 and $61,160 million in 20251112: the company lost $16.7 billion of Humira sales and still grew. Management called 2025 record net sales in just the second full year following the United States Humira loss of exclusivity13.

That is the moat of a pharmaceutical company in its clearest form: not the drug, but the ability to have the next drug ready. AbbVie spent years building Skyrizi and Rinvoq's labels so that patients could be moved within its own portfolio.

Humira's own history shows how much AbbVie had to replace. It sold $16,078 million in 2016, $18,427 million in 2017 and $19,936 million in 201814, then $19,169 million in 2019, $19,832 million in 2020 and $20,694 million in 202115. For almost a decade it was more than half of AbbVie. No other drug in this collection has fallen so far, so fast, without taking its owner down with it.

The Humira story is almost over. Its remaining sales are the figure to watch only as a drag: management expected $2.9 billion in 202616, and a fall faster than that would add a few points of headwind without changing the verdict.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Humira is now about 7% of revenue and still falling.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Humira sales, latest quarter
$756M, -35.9% (Q2 2026)

The remaining drag from the old franchise; a faster fall than the $2.9bn 2026 plan would add headwind.

Source: AbbVie Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Exclusive Biosimilar Contracts
Benefit managers moved Humira patients to biosimilars a whole plan at a time, and they will do the same to Skyrizi after 2033.
References
  1. ReportedIt sold $19,936 million in 2018, peaked at $21,237 million in 2022, and made up about 58% of AbbVie's revenue in 2019.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2018 - Humira revenue for 2016-2018, the Pharmacyclics and Stemcentrx acquisitions, and selected data for 2014-2018. — FY2018 · publ. February 2019 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt sold $19,936 million in 2018, peaked at $21,237 million in 2022, and made up about 58% of AbbVie's revenue in 2019.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - product revenue for 2022-2024, product concentration, the CEO succession and the emraclidine impairment. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt sold $19,936 million in 2018, peaked at $21,237 million in 2022, and made up about 58% of AbbVie's revenue in 2019.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2021 - Humira's share of revenue in 2019-2021 and rebate provisions for 2019-2021. — FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAmerican biosimilars arrived after loss of exclusivity on 31 January 2023.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - Humira's share of revenue and US loss of exclusivity. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedHumira sold $14,404 million in 2023, $8,993 million in 2024 and $4,540 million in 2025, a fall of about 79% from the peak.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcHumira sold $14,404 million in 2023, $8,993 million in 2024 and $4,540 million in 2025, a fall of about 79% from the peak.
    Moat Explorer calculation from AbbVie's reported product revenue and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Therapeutic areas 2025: immunology 17,562 + 8,304 + 4,540 = 30,406; neuroscience 3,621 + 3,769 + 1,271 + 1,036 + 482 + 381 + 207 = 10,767; oncology 2,869 + 2,792 + 690 + 271 + 33 = 6,655; aesthetics 2,602 + 993 + 1,265 = 4,860; eye care 493 + 410 + 197 + 1,009 = 2,109; other key products 1,317 + 1,512 + 907 = 3,736; all other 2,627; eye care and other products 2,109 + 3,736 + 2,627 = 8,472; total 61,160. 2024: immunology 11,718 + 5,971 + 8,993 = 26,682; neuroscience 8,999; oncology 6,555; aesthetics 5,176; eye care and other 2,242 + 3,648 + 3,032 = 8,922. 2023: 7,763 + 3,969 + 14,404 = 26,136; neuroscience 7,717; oncology 5,915; aesthetics 5,294; eye care and other 2,415 + 3,806 + 3,035 = 9,256. 2022: 5,165 + 2,522 + 21,237 = 28,924; neuroscience 6,528; oncology 6,577; aesthetics 5,333; eye care and other 2,701 + 3,854 + 4,137 = 10,692. Growth 2025: immunology 30,406 / 26,682 - 1 = 14.0%; neuroscience 10,767 / 8,999 - 1 = 19.6%. Immunology and neuroscience 30,406 + 10,767 = 41,173, 41,173 / 61,160 = 67.3%. Immunology share 30,406 / 61,160 = 49.7%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq: 5,165 + 2,522 = 7,687 (2022); 7,763 + 3,969 = 11,732 (2023); 11,718 + 5,971 = 17,689 (2024); 17,562 + 8,304 = 25,866 (2025); H1 2026 9,988 + 4,644 = 14,632; Q2 2026 5,505 + 2,525 = 8,030, 8,030 / 16,990 = 47.3%; 2026 plan 21.5 + 10.1 = 31.6 bn. Shares of revenue 7,687 / 58,054 = 13.2%; 11,732 / 54,318 = 21.6%; 17,689 / 56,334 = 31.4%; 25,866 / 61,160 = 42.3%. Humira: 4,540 / 21,237 - 1 = -78.6%; share 8,993 / 56,334 = 16.0% (2024), 4,540 / 61,160 = 7.4% (2025). Rebates: 65.1 / 61.16 = 1.06; 65.1 / 18.8 = 3.5 times (2019-2025) against net revenues 61,160 / 33,266 = 1.8 times; gross sales 61.2 + 65.1 = 126.3 bn, 126.3 / 61.2 = 2.1 times; managed care 22,307 / 61,160 = 36.5%; Medicaid and Medicare 21,283 / 61,160 = 34.8%; payers 22,307 + 21,283 = 43,590, 43,590 / 61,160 = 71.3%. Geography: US 46,603 / 61,160 = 76.2%; international 14,557 / 61,160 = 23.8%. Gross margin 2025 (61,160 - 18,204) / 61,160 = 70.2%. Government-set price products, 2025 sales: 2,869 + 3,621 + 907 + 3,769 = 11,166, 11,166 / 61,160 = 18.3%. Goodwill and intangibles 35,640 + 52,641 = 88,281, 88,281 / 133,960 = 65.9%. Eye care share 2,109 / 61,160 = 3.4%; aesthetics share 4,860 / 61,160 = 7.9%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 62,481 + 8,341 - 6,569 = 64,253; net debt / operating cash flow 64,253 / 19,030 = 3.4 years. Free cash flow 2025: 19,030 - 1,214 = 17,816; dividends paid 11,657 / 17,816 = 65.4%; operating cash flow / dividends 19,030 / 11,657 = 1.6; dividends declared / net earnings 11,819 / 4,226 = 2.8; dividends per share 6.65 / 1.75 = 3.8 times (2014-2025). Free cash flow yield 17,816 / 468,500 = 3.8%; free cash flow per share 17,816 / 1,771 = 10.06. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints: (14.37 + 14.57) / 2 = 14.47; (13.96 + 14.16) / 2 = 14.06; (14.08 + 14.28) / 2 = 14.18; (13.91 + 14.11) / 2 = 14.01; (13.87 + 14.07) / 2 = 13.97. Ubrelvy and Qulipta Q2 2026 392 + 350 = 742; 2025 1,271 + 1,036 = 2,307. Skyrizi share 17,562 / 61,160 = 28.7%. Juvederm 993 / 1,428 - 1 = -30.5%. Aesthetics 4,860 / 5,176 - 1 = -6.1%. Gross margin 2023 (54,318 - 20,415) / 54,318 = 62.4%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq 2021 2,939 + 1,651 = 4,590; 2022 7,687 / 21,237 = 36% - therapeutic-area totals, growth and rebates. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in AbbVie's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Q4 2025 call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. ReportedIts share of AbbVie's revenue went from 37% in 2022 to about 7.4% in 2025.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - Humira's share of revenue and US loss of exclusivity. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcIts share of AbbVie's revenue went from 37% in 2022 to about 7.4% in 2025.
    Moat Explorer calculation from AbbVie's reported product revenue and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Therapeutic areas 2025: immunology 17,562 + 8,304 + 4,540 = 30,406; neuroscience 3,621 + 3,769 + 1,271 + 1,036 + 482 + 381 + 207 = 10,767; oncology 2,869 + 2,792 + 690 + 271 + 33 = 6,655; aesthetics 2,602 + 993 + 1,265 = 4,860; eye care 493 + 410 + 197 + 1,009 = 2,109; other key products 1,317 + 1,512 + 907 = 3,736; all other 2,627; eye care and other products 2,109 + 3,736 + 2,627 = 8,472; total 61,160. 2024: immunology 11,718 + 5,971 + 8,993 = 26,682; neuroscience 8,999; oncology 6,555; aesthetics 5,176; eye care and other 2,242 + 3,648 + 3,032 = 8,922. 2023: 7,763 + 3,969 + 14,404 = 26,136; neuroscience 7,717; oncology 5,915; aesthetics 5,294; eye care and other 2,415 + 3,806 + 3,035 = 9,256. 2022: 5,165 + 2,522 + 21,237 = 28,924; neuroscience 6,528; oncology 6,577; aesthetics 5,333; eye care and other 2,701 + 3,854 + 4,137 = 10,692. Growth 2025: immunology 30,406 / 26,682 - 1 = 14.0%; neuroscience 10,767 / 8,999 - 1 = 19.6%. Immunology and neuroscience 30,406 + 10,767 = 41,173, 41,173 / 61,160 = 67.3%. Immunology share 30,406 / 61,160 = 49.7%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq: 5,165 + 2,522 = 7,687 (2022); 7,763 + 3,969 = 11,732 (2023); 11,718 + 5,971 = 17,689 (2024); 17,562 + 8,304 = 25,866 (2025); H1 2026 9,988 + 4,644 = 14,632; Q2 2026 5,505 + 2,525 = 8,030, 8,030 / 16,990 = 47.3%; 2026 plan 21.5 + 10.1 = 31.6 bn. Shares of revenue 7,687 / 58,054 = 13.2%; 11,732 / 54,318 = 21.6%; 17,689 / 56,334 = 31.4%; 25,866 / 61,160 = 42.3%. Humira: 4,540 / 21,237 - 1 = -78.6%; share 8,993 / 56,334 = 16.0% (2024), 4,540 / 61,160 = 7.4% (2025). Rebates: 65.1 / 61.16 = 1.06; 65.1 / 18.8 = 3.5 times (2019-2025) against net revenues 61,160 / 33,266 = 1.8 times; gross sales 61.2 + 65.1 = 126.3 bn, 126.3 / 61.2 = 2.1 times; managed care 22,307 / 61,160 = 36.5%; Medicaid and Medicare 21,283 / 61,160 = 34.8%; payers 22,307 + 21,283 = 43,590, 43,590 / 61,160 = 71.3%. Geography: US 46,603 / 61,160 = 76.2%; international 14,557 / 61,160 = 23.8%. Gross margin 2025 (61,160 - 18,204) / 61,160 = 70.2%. Government-set price products, 2025 sales: 2,869 + 3,621 + 907 + 3,769 = 11,166, 11,166 / 61,160 = 18.3%. Goodwill and intangibles 35,640 + 52,641 = 88,281, 88,281 / 133,960 = 65.9%. Eye care share 2,109 / 61,160 = 3.4%; aesthetics share 4,860 / 61,160 = 7.9%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 62,481 + 8,341 - 6,569 = 64,253; net debt / operating cash flow 64,253 / 19,030 = 3.4 years. Free cash flow 2025: 19,030 - 1,214 = 17,816; dividends paid 11,657 / 17,816 = 65.4%; operating cash flow / dividends 19,030 / 11,657 = 1.6; dividends declared / net earnings 11,819 / 4,226 = 2.8; dividends per share 6.65 / 1.75 = 3.8 times (2014-2025). Free cash flow yield 17,816 / 468,500 = 3.8%; free cash flow per share 17,816 / 1,771 = 10.06. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints: (14.37 + 14.57) / 2 = 14.47; (13.96 + 14.16) / 2 = 14.06; (14.08 + 14.28) / 2 = 14.18; (13.91 + 14.11) / 2 = 14.01; (13.87 + 14.07) / 2 = 13.97. Ubrelvy and Qulipta Q2 2026 392 + 350 = 742; 2025 1,271 + 1,036 = 2,307. Skyrizi share 17,562 / 61,160 = 28.7%. Juvederm 993 / 1,428 - 1 = -30.5%. Aesthetics 4,860 / 5,176 - 1 = -6.1%. Gross margin 2023 (54,318 - 20,415) / 54,318 = 62.4%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq 2021 2,939 + 1,651 = 4,590; 2022 7,687 / 21,237 = 36% - revenue mix, concentration and geography. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in AbbVie's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Q4 2025 call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  9. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 American Humira sales were $425 million, and total Humira sales fell 35.9%.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 American Humira sales were $425 million, and total Humira sales fell 35.9%.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedAbbVie's net revenues were $58,054 million in 2022 and $61,160 million in 2025: the company lost $16.7 billion of Humira sales and still grew.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - product revenue for 2022-2024, product concentration, the CEO succession and the emraclidine impairment. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  12. ReportedAbbVie's net revenues were $58,054 million in 2022 and $61,160 million in 2025: the company lost $16.7 billion of Humira sales and still grew.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedManagement called 2025 record net sales in just the second full year following the United States Humira loss of exclusivity.
    AbbVie fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - adjusted EPS and 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedIt sold $16,078 million in 2016, $18,427 million in 2017 and $19,936 million in 2018, then $19,169 million in 2019, $19,832 million in 2020 and $20,694 million in 2021.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2018 - Humira revenue for 2016-2018, the Pharmacyclics and Stemcentrx acquisitions, and selected data for 2014-2018. — FY2018 · publ. February 2019 · source ↗
  15. ReportedIt sold $16,078 million in 2016, $18,427 million in 2017 and $19,936 million in 2018, then $19,169 million in 2019, $19,832 million in 2020 and $20,694 million in 2021.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2021 - Humira's share of revenue in 2019-2021 and rebate provisions for 2019-2021. — FY2021 · publ. February 2022 · source ↗
  16. ReportedIts remaining sales are the figure to watch only as a drag: management expected $2.9 billion in 2026, and a fall faster than that would add a few points of headwind without changing the verdict.
    The Motley Fool, AbbVie Q4 2025 earnings call transcript - 2026 revenue assumptions by product and management's comments on share and competitors. — Q4 2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026