⚠ Guidance Cut by Every DealLow threat

AbbVie (ABBV) — threat to the moat

AbbVie's 2026 earnings guidance has been cut four times, each time by a deal to buy early-stage science.

AbbVie's earnings guidance moves with its dealmaking. Its 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance began at $14.37 to $14.571, fell to $13.96 to $14.16 after first-quarter acquired research charges2, rose to $14.08 to $14.28 on better results3, fell to $13.91 to $14.11 after second-quarter charges4, and was updated to $13.87 to $14.07 at the second-quarter results, including dilution from the Apogee deal5.

2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint ($)14.47Feb 202614.06Apr 202614.18Apr 2026 raise14.01Jul 202613.97Jul 2026 updateAbbVie results releases and IPR&D guidance updates; midpoints calculated
Down by deals, up by results.

The pattern is by design: AbbVie excludes future acquired research from guidance. But it means the guidance a shareholder sees in February is a ceiling, not a forecast.

The charges also make GAAP earnings volatile: first-quarter 2026 net earnings were $695 million6 and second-quarter $3,613 million7.

The underlying business has been beating its own forecasts. AbbVie raised guidance in April 2026 on better results8 and cited overperformance in July9. The cuts are all acquired research. A reader who strips them out sees a company whose operations are running ahead of plan while its dealmaking keeps pulling the reported numbers down.

The gap between February guidance and the final result is the thing to watch. A growing gap would mean AbbVie is buying more of its future each year.

References
  1. ReportedIts 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance began at $14.37 to $14.57, fell to $13.96 to $14.16 after first-quarter acquired research charges, rose to $14.08 to $14.28 on better results, fell to $13.91 to $14.11 after second-quarter charges, and was updated to $13.87 to $14.07 at the second-quarter results, including dilution from the Apogee deal.
    AbbVie fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - adjusted EPS and 2026 guidance. — FY2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIts 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance began at $14.37 to $14.57, fell to $13.96 to $14.16 after first-quarter acquired research charges, rose to $14.08 to $14.28 on better results, fell to $13.91 to $14.11 after second-quarter charges, and was updated to $13.87 to $14.07 at the second-quarter results, including dilution from the Apogee deal.
    AbbVie Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q1 2026 acquired IPR&D and milestones guidance update. — Q1 2026 · publ. 3 April 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIts 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance began at $14.37 to $14.57, fell to $13.96 to $14.16 after first-quarter acquired research charges, rose to $14.08 to $14.28 on better results, fell to $13.91 to $14.11 after second-quarter charges, and was updated to $13.87 to $14.07 at the second-quarter results, including dilution from the Apogee deal.
    AbbVie first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 29 April 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance began at $14.37 to $14.57, fell to $13.96 to $14.16 after first-quarter acquired research charges, rose to $14.08 to $14.28 on better results, fell to $13.91 to $14.11 after second-quarter charges, and was updated to $13.87 to $14.07 at the second-quarter results, including dilution from the Apogee deal.
    AbbVie Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q2 2026 acquired IPR&D and milestones guidance update. — Q2 2026 · publ. 6 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIts 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance began at $14.37 to $14.57, fell to $13.96 to $14.16 after first-quarter acquired research charges, rose to $14.08 to $14.28 on better results, fell to $13.91 to $14.11 after second-quarter charges, and was updated to $13.87 to $14.07 at the second-quarter results, including dilution from the Apogee deal.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe charges also make GAAP earnings volatile: first-quarter 2026 net earnings were $695 million and second-quarter $3,613 million.
    AbbVie first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 29 April 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe charges also make GAAP earnings volatile: first-quarter 2026 net earnings were $695 million and second-quarter $3,613 million.
    AbbVie Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - product revenue, the balance sheet, cash flow and the Apogee agreement. — Q2 2026 · publ. 3 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAbbVie raised guidance in April 2026 on better results and cited overperformance in July.
    AbbVie first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 29 April 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAbbVie raised guidance in April 2026 on better results and cited overperformance in July.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026