✦ Psychiatry's Next Drugs: BretisilocinThin moat

AbbVie (ABBV) — the future bets

AbbVie paid $906 million for a psychedelic-derived depression drug to follow Vraylar, which gets a government price in 2027.

AbbVie's neuroscience business, already growing 20%1, has added a speculative bet. In 2025 it acquired Gilgamesh for an upfront cash payment of $906 million to gain bretisilocin, a psychedelic-derived drug being developed for depression2.

Psychiatry ($M)3,621Vraylar sales 2025906Gilgamesh upfront4,500Emraclidine impairmentAbbVie Forms 10-K FY2024 and FY2025
A cheap bet after an expensive failure.

The logic follows Vraylar's success. AbbVie has a psychiatric sales force and relationships built on Vraylar, which sold $3,621 million in 20253, and a new mechanism for depression could use them.

The risk is scientific and regulatory. Psychedelic-derived drugs are new to regulators, and AbbVie's Cerevel experience, a $4.5 billion impairment after trial failures in schizophrenia4, shows how expensive neuroscience bets can be.

Vraylar faces a government-set Medicare price from 20275, which makes a successor more urgent.

Vraylar shows what a successful psychiatric drug can become. It sold $2,038 million in 20226 and $3,621 million in 20257, and management assumed about $4 billion for 20268. A successor with a new mechanism could extend AbbVie's position with the same prescribers after Vraylar's government price begins.

The regulatory path for psychedelic-derived drugs is still being set. A treatment that requires supervised administration would be sold differently from a daily pill, and the commercial model would have to be built. AbbVie's willingness to pay $906 million9 for an early position says it expects the category to matter.

This is an early, cheap option compared with Apogee. Phase 3 results for bretisilocin are what will decide it.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Acquired in 2025; in development.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Vraylar sales, latest quarter
$1,071M (Q2 2026)

The psychiatric franchise a successor must follow; a decline after its 2027 Medicare price would make the bet more urgent.

Source: AbbVie Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedAbbVie's neuroscience business, already growing 20%, has added a speculative bet.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn 2025 it acquired Gilgamesh for an upfront cash payment of $906 million to gain bretisilocin, a psychedelic-derived drug being developed for depression.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions and contingent consideration. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAbbVie has a psychiatric sales force and relationships built on Vraylar, which sold $3,621 million in 2025, and a new mechanism for depression could use them.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedPsychedelic-derived drugs are new to regulators, and AbbVie's Cerevel experience, a $4.5 billion impairment after trial failures in schizophrenia, shows how expensive neuroscience bets can be.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - product revenue for 2022-2024, product concentration, the CEO succession and the emraclidine impairment. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedVraylar faces a government-set Medicare price from 2027, which makes a successor more urgent.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, patents and exclusivity, government pricing and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt sold $2,038 million in 2022 and $3,621 million in 2025, and management assumed about $4 billion for 2026.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - product revenue for 2022-2024, product concentration, the CEO succession and the emraclidine impairment. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt sold $2,038 million in 2022 and $3,621 million in 2025, and management assumed about $4 billion for 2026.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, customers, competition and research. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIt sold $2,038 million in 2022 and $3,621 million in 2025, and management assumed about $4 billion for 2026.
    The Motley Fool, AbbVie Q4 2025 earnings call transcript - 2026 revenue assumptions by product and management's comments on share and competitors. — Q4 2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAbbVie's willingness to pay $906 million for an early position says it expects the category to matter.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, customers, competition and research. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026