Imbruvica: The First Drug With a Government PriceThin moat

AbbVie (ABBV) — moat facet

Imbruvica lost 29% of its sales in the quarter its government-set Medicare price began, and Vraylar and Botox are next.

Imbruvica shows what happens when the government sets the price. It was selected as one of ten medicines subject to government-set prices in Medicare Part D beginning in 20261. In the second quarter of 2026 its revenue fell 29.4%2.

Imbruvica net revenues ($M)4,56820223,59620233,34720242,8692025AbbVie Forms 10-K FY2024 and FY2025
Down 37% in three years.

The drug was already declining under competition. Imbruvica revenue was $4,568 million in 2022, $3,596 million in 2023, $3,347 million in 2024 and $2,869 million in 202534. AbbVie impaired it by $2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2023 after the Medicare selection5.

More drugs follow. Vraylar and Linzess were selected for government-set prices beginning in 2027, and in January 2026 Botox was selected as one of fifteen medicines for government-set prices in Medicare Parts B and D beginning in 20286. Vraylar sold $3,621 million in 2025 and Botox Therapeutic $3,769 million7.

The pattern matters for the moat because it shortens the effective life of a drug's pricing power. A product can remain on patent while its largest single customer pays a price set by law.

The impairment came first. AbbVie wrote down Imbruvica's intangible asset by $2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2023, soon after the Medicare selection8, recognising in the accounts what the sales figures showed later. Imbruvica was once a $4.6 billion drug9; management assumed $2.2 billion for 202610.

The next test is Vraylar in 2027. A decline on Imbruvica's scale after its government price takes effect would confirm that Medicare selection now arrives years before patent expiry and does similar damage.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Four products selected for government-set prices from 2026 to 2028.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Imbruvica revenue change, latest quarter
-29.4% ($532M, Q2 2026)

The effect of a government-set price; a similar fall for Vraylar in 2027 would confirm the pattern.

Source: AbbVie Q2 2026 results release ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Botox Joins the Medicare List in 2028
From 2028 the government will set the Medicare price of Botox, a $3.8 billion drug with no biosimilar.
References
  1. ReportedIt was selected as one of ten medicines subject to government-set prices in Medicare Part D beginning in 2026.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, patents and exclusivity, government pricing and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 its revenue fell 29.4%.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedImbruvica revenue was $4,568 million in 2022, $3,596 million in 2023, $3,347 million in 2024 and $2,869 million in 2025.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - product revenue for 2022-2024, product concentration, the CEO succession and the emraclidine impairment. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedImbruvica revenue was $4,568 million in 2022, $3,596 million in 2023, $3,347 million in 2024 and $2,869 million in 2025.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAbbVie impaired it by $2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2023 after the Medicare selection.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, patents and exclusivity, government pricing and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedVraylar and Linzess were selected for government-set prices beginning in 2027, and in January 2026 Botox was selected as one of fifteen medicines for government-set prices in Medicare Parts B and D beginning in 2028.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, patents and exclusivity, government pricing and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedVraylar sold $3,621 million in 2025 and Botox Therapeutic $3,769 million.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAbbVie wrote down Imbruvica's intangible asset by $2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2023, soon after the Medicare selection, recognising in the accounts what the sales figures showed later.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1A risk factors, patents and exclusivity, government pricing and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedImbruvica was once a $4.6 billion drug; management assumed $2.2 billion for 2026.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - product revenue for 2022-2024, product concentration, the CEO succession and the emraclidine impairment. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedImbruvica was once a $4.6 billion drug; management assumed $2.2 billion for 2026.
    The Motley Fool, AbbVie Q4 2025 earnings call transcript - 2026 revenue assumptions by product and management's comments on share and competitors. — Q4 2025 · publ. 4 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026