✦ RemeGen and the Oncology RebuildThin moat

AbbVie (ABBV) — the future bets

AbbVie paid $650 million upfront for a Chinese-developed cancer antibody in one of the most crowded races in oncology.

AbbVie's oncology business needs new drugs. Revenue was flat at $6,655 million in 202512 as Imbruvica declined. In early 2026 AbbVie licensed RC148, a PD-1 and VEGF bispecific antibody, from RemeGen, paying $650 million upfront with up to $5.0 billion in potential milestones3.

RemeGen RC148 licence ($M)650Upfront5,000Potential milestonesAbbVie Form 10-K FY2025
A small upfront, large milestones.

The target class is a crowded one in cancer drug development, with several large companies licensing similar molecules from Chinese developers.

AbbVie's existing newer oncology drugs are growing: Elahere sold $690 million in 20254, and Epkinly $271 million5. The new drug Decnupaz was approved for a rare blood cancer in 20266.

The oncology rebuild depends on these bets reaching the market after Imbruvica's decline has run its course.

The deal is structured like AbbVie's other recent oncology bets: a modest upfront payment and large milestones tied to success. That limits the cost of failure but also means AbbVie shares much of the upside with the originator. It is a different model from the Pharmacyclics purchase, which bought the whole drug for about $20.8 billion7.

For AbbVie the attraction is time. A licensed antibody already in development can reach the market years before one discovered internally. The risk is that several of its competitors licensed similar molecules at the same time, and the class may prove crowded by the time any of them is approved.

Oncology growth is the measure. A return to growth by 2027 would say the new drugs have outpaced Imbruvica's fall.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Early-stage licence; oncology flat.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Oncology revenue, latest quarter
$1,650M, -1.5% (Q2 2026)

The business the RemeGen bet must rebuild; a return to growth would mean new drugs are outpacing Imbruvica.

Source: AbbVie Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedRevenue was flat at $6,655 million in 2025 as Imbruvica declined.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcRevenue was flat at $6,655 million in 2025 as Imbruvica declined.
    Moat Explorer calculation from AbbVie's reported product revenue and financial statements ($ millions unless stated). Therapeutic areas 2025: immunology 17,562 + 8,304 + 4,540 = 30,406; neuroscience 3,621 + 3,769 + 1,271 + 1,036 + 482 + 381 + 207 = 10,767; oncology 2,869 + 2,792 + 690 + 271 + 33 = 6,655; aesthetics 2,602 + 993 + 1,265 = 4,860; eye care 493 + 410 + 197 + 1,009 = 2,109; other key products 1,317 + 1,512 + 907 = 3,736; all other 2,627; eye care and other products 2,109 + 3,736 + 2,627 = 8,472; total 61,160. 2024: immunology 11,718 + 5,971 + 8,993 = 26,682; neuroscience 8,999; oncology 6,555; aesthetics 5,176; eye care and other 2,242 + 3,648 + 3,032 = 8,922. 2023: 7,763 + 3,969 + 14,404 = 26,136; neuroscience 7,717; oncology 5,915; aesthetics 5,294; eye care and other 2,415 + 3,806 + 3,035 = 9,256. 2022: 5,165 + 2,522 + 21,237 = 28,924; neuroscience 6,528; oncology 6,577; aesthetics 5,333; eye care and other 2,701 + 3,854 + 4,137 = 10,692. Growth 2025: immunology 30,406 / 26,682 - 1 = 14.0%; neuroscience 10,767 / 8,999 - 1 = 19.6%. Immunology and neuroscience 30,406 + 10,767 = 41,173, 41,173 / 61,160 = 67.3%. Immunology share 30,406 / 61,160 = 49.7%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq: 5,165 + 2,522 = 7,687 (2022); 7,763 + 3,969 = 11,732 (2023); 11,718 + 5,971 = 17,689 (2024); 17,562 + 8,304 = 25,866 (2025); H1 2026 9,988 + 4,644 = 14,632; Q2 2026 5,505 + 2,525 = 8,030, 8,030 / 16,990 = 47.3%; 2026 plan 21.5 + 10.1 = 31.6 bn. Shares of revenue 7,687 / 58,054 = 13.2%; 11,732 / 54,318 = 21.6%; 17,689 / 56,334 = 31.4%; 25,866 / 61,160 = 42.3%. Humira: 4,540 / 21,237 - 1 = -78.6%; share 8,993 / 56,334 = 16.0% (2024), 4,540 / 61,160 = 7.4% (2025). Rebates: 65.1 / 61.16 = 1.06; 65.1 / 18.8 = 3.5 times (2019-2025) against net revenues 61,160 / 33,266 = 1.8 times; gross sales 61.2 + 65.1 = 126.3 bn, 126.3 / 61.2 = 2.1 times; managed care 22,307 / 61,160 = 36.5%; Medicaid and Medicare 21,283 / 61,160 = 34.8%; payers 22,307 + 21,283 = 43,590, 43,590 / 61,160 = 71.3%. Geography: US 46,603 / 61,160 = 76.2%; international 14,557 / 61,160 = 23.8%. Gross margin 2025 (61,160 - 18,204) / 61,160 = 70.2%. Government-set price products, 2025 sales: 2,869 + 3,621 + 907 + 3,769 = 11,166, 11,166 / 61,160 = 18.3%. Goodwill and intangibles 35,640 + 52,641 = 88,281, 88,281 / 133,960 = 65.9%. Eye care share 2,109 / 61,160 = 3.4%; aesthetics share 4,860 / 61,160 = 7.9%. Net debt 30 June 2026: 62,481 + 8,341 - 6,569 = 64,253; net debt / operating cash flow 64,253 / 19,030 = 3.4 years. Free cash flow 2025: 19,030 - 1,214 = 17,816; dividends paid 11,657 / 17,816 = 65.4%; operating cash flow / dividends 19,030 / 11,657 = 1.6; dividends declared / net earnings 11,819 / 4,226 = 2.8; dividends per share 6.65 / 1.75 = 3.8 times (2014-2025). Free cash flow yield 17,816 / 468,500 = 3.8%; free cash flow per share 17,816 / 1,771 = 10.06. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints: (14.37 + 14.57) / 2 = 14.47; (13.96 + 14.16) / 2 = 14.06; (14.08 + 14.28) / 2 = 14.18; (13.91 + 14.11) / 2 = 14.01; (13.87 + 14.07) / 2 = 13.97. Ubrelvy and Qulipta Q2 2026 392 + 350 = 742; 2025 1,271 + 1,036 = 2,307. Skyrizi share 17,562 / 61,160 = 28.7%. Juvederm 993 / 1,428 - 1 = -30.5%. Aesthetics 4,860 / 5,176 - 1 = -6.1%. Gross margin 2023 (54,318 - 20,415) / 54,318 = 62.4%. Skyrizi + Rinvoq 2021 2,939 + 1,651 = 4,590; 2022 7,687 / 21,237 = 36% - therapeutic-area totals, growth and rebates. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in AbbVie's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the Q4 2025 call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedIn early 2026 AbbVie licensed RC148, a PD-1 and VEGF bispecific antibody, from RemeGen, paying $650 million upfront with up to $5.0 billion in potential milestones.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial statements and notes: earnings, cash flow, balance sheet, acquisitions and contingent consideration. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAbbVie's existing newer oncology drugs are growing: Elahere sold $690 million in 2025, and Epkinly $271 million.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAbbVie's existing newer oncology drugs are growing: Elahere sold $690 million in 2025, and Epkinly $271 million.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: net revenues by product and region, and rebates. — FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe new drug Decnupaz was approved for a rare blood cancer in 2026.
    AbbVie second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIt is a different model from the Pharmacyclics purchase, which bought the whole drug for about $20.8 billion.
    AbbVie Form 10-K for fiscal 2018 - Humira revenue for 2016-2018, the Pharmacyclics and Stemcentrx acquisitions, and selected data for 2014-2018. — FY2018 · publ. February 2019 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026