⚠ Customers Want to Own Their DataLow threat

Lam Research (LRCX) — threat to the moat

Lam's largest customers run the world's most advanced fabs and can build their own analytics rather than buy Lam's.

Selling data services to Lam's own largest customers is harder than selling them chambers. Lam's biggest customers, Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC1, run some of the most sophisticated factories in the world and treat production data as a trade secret. They can build their own analytics and ask Lam only for the raw information.

Customers above 10% of revenue, FY2026 (%)Customer A16%Customer B15%Customer C12%Customer D12%Lam Research Form 10-K FY2026, major customers (unnamed)
Four customers set the market for fleet services.

With four customers at 55% of revenue2, their preferences set the size of the market. If they decline to buy fleet services, the business is limited to smaller fabs.

Lam also faces the general risk that information from its tools is protected by the customer's security rules, which limit how much Lam can learn from the fleet.

The four most significant customers named in the 10-K are Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC3. Customers of that size set the terms on which data is shared, as they set payment terms: five customers owed Lam 72% of its receivables at the end of fiscal 20264.

The test is disclosure. Lam does not report fleet-service revenue; if it begins to, and the figure is small relative to the $8,347.2 million customer support line5, the data layer is a feature rather than a moat.

References
  1. ReportedLam's biggest customers, Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC, run some of the most sophisticated factories in the world and treat production data as a trade secret.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1 business: competition and intellectual property. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcWith four customers at 55% of revenue, their preferences set the size of the market.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lam Research's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end in late June). Revenue growth: FY2019 9,653.6 / 11,077.0 - 1 = -12.9%; FY2020 10,044.7 / 9,653.6 - 1 = +4.1%; FY2021 14,626.2 / 10,044.7 - 1 = +45.6%; FY2022 17,227.0 / 14,626.2 - 1 = +17.8%; FY2023 17,428.5 / 17,227.0 - 1 = +1.2%; FY2024 14,905.4 / 17,428.5 - 1 = -14.5%; FY2025 18,435.6 / 14,905.4 - 1 = +23.7%; revenue FY2015-FY2026 23,232.7 / 5,259.3 = 4.4 times. Q4 FY2026 revenue 6,722.2 / 5,171.4 - 1 = +30.0%; Q4 systems 4,249.8 / 3,437.6 - 1 = +23.6%; Q4 customer support 2,472.4 / 1,733.8 - 1 = +42.6%; FY2025 quarterly systems 3,437.6 / 2,392.7 - 1 = +43.7%. Revenue by type: systems FY2023 10,695.9 / 11,322.3 - 1 = -5.5%; FY2024 8,921.6 / 10,695.9 - 1 = -16.6%; customer support FY2023 6,732.6 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +14.0%; FY2024 5,983.7 / 6,732.6 - 1 = -11.1%, a fall of 748.9; FY2021 growth systems +47.4%, support +42.2%; FY2022 systems +16.0%, support +21.5%; FY2025 systems +28.8%, support +16.1%; FY2026 systems +29.5%, support +20.2%; support less systems growth -5.2, +5.5, +19.5, +5.5, -12.7, -9.3 points (FY2021-FY2026). Multiples FY2019-FY2026: customer support 8,347.2 / 3,202.5 = 2.6 times (14.7% a year); systems 14,885.5 / 6,451.1 = 2.3 times (12.7% a year). Cumulative FY2019-FY2026 customer support 45,396.0 of 125,553.6 = 36%. Customer support share of revenue: 3,202.5 / 9,653.6 = 33.2% (FY2019); 3,419.6 / 10,044.7 = 34.0%; 4,861.3 / 14,626.2 = 33.2%; 5,904.8 / 17,227.0 = 34.3%; 6,732.6 / 17,428.5 = 38.6%; 5,983.7 / 14,905.4 = 40.1% (FY2024); 6,944.3 / 18,435.6 = 37.7%; 8,347.2 / 23,232.7 = 35.9% (FY2026). Systems share 65.7%, 61.4%, 59.9%, 62.3%, 64.1% (FY2022-FY2026). Quarterly FY2026 support share 1,776.6 / 5,324.2 = 33.4%; 1,987.3 / 5,344.8 = 37.2%; 2,110.9 / 5,841.5 = 36.1%; 2,472.4 / 6,722.2 = 36.8%. Research and development 2,375.9 / 23,232.7 = 10.2% (FY2026); 825.2 / 5,259.3 = 15.7% (FY2015); 1,033.7 / 8,013.6 = 12.9% (FY2017); 1,191.3 / 9,653.6 = 12.3% (FY2019); 1,493.4 / 14,626.2 = 10.2% (FY2021); 1,727.2 / 17,428.5 = 9.9% (FY2023); 1,902.4 / 14,905.4 = 12.8% (FY2024); 2,375.9 / 825.2 = 2.9 times. Gross margin 2,284.3 / 5,259.3 = 43.4% (FY2015); 3,603.4 / 8,013.6 = 45.0% (FY2017); 4,358.5 / 9,653.6 = 45.1% (FY2019); 6,805.3 / 14,626.2 = 46.5% (FY2021); 7,776.9 / 17,428.5 = 44.6% (FY2023); 7,052.8 / 14,905.4 = 47.3% (FY2024). Operating margin 788.0 / 5,259.3 = 15.0% (FY2015); 1,902.1 / 8,013.6 = 23.7%; 2,464.7 / 9,653.6 = 25.5%; 4,482.0 / 14,626.2 = 30.6%; 5,174.9 / 17,428.5 = 29.7%; 4,263.9 / 14,905.4 = 28.6% (FY2024). Segment gross margin 12,120.0 / 23,232.7 = 52.2%. Region FY2026: China 7,859.8 / 23,232.7 = 33.8%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 23,232.7 = 22.5%; Korea 4,505.3 / 23,232.7 = 19.4%; Japan 2,171.1 / 23,232.7 = 9.3%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 3,445.2 - 1 = +51.6%; Korea 2,874.0 / 4,037.5 - 1 = -28.8%. China share 1,040.0 / 5,885.9 = 17.7% (FY2016); 1,784.4 / 11,077.0 = 16.1% (FY2018); 3,083.9 / 10,044.7 = 30.7% (FY2020); 5,137.9 / 14,626.2 = 35.1% (FY2021); 4,462.7 / 17,428.5 = 25.6% (FY2023). China revenue FY2022-FY2023 5,411.5 - 4,462.7 = 948.8 lower. Foundry plus memory 54 + 39 = 93%. Long-lived assets in the United States 2,003.4 / 3,353.8 = 60%. Customer concentration (percentages of total revenue): FY2026 16 + 15 + 12 + 12 = 55%; FY2025 17 + 15 = 32%; FY2024 17%; FY2023 22 + 16 = 38%; FY2022 21 + 12 + 12 + 11 = 56%; FY2021 25 + 12 + 10 = 47%; FY2020 24 + 14 + 10 + 10 = 58%; FY2019 15 + 14 + 14 + 14 = 57%; FY2018 25 + 14 + 14 + 13 + 12 = 78%. Accounts receivable June 2026 20 + 16 + 15 + 11 + 10 = 72%. Deferred revenue within a year 1,798.1 / 2,434.0 = 74%; deferred revenue against Q4 revenue 2,434.0 / 6,722.2 = 36%. Cash and capital: free cash flow 5,857.7 - 966.4 = 4,891.3 (FY2026); 6,173.3 - 759.2 = 5,414.1 (FY2025); 4,652.3 - 396.7 = 4,255.6 (FY2024). Shareholder returns 3,851.3 + 1,270.6 = 5,121.9, 5,121.9 / 4,891.3 = 104.7%; FY2025 (3,422.3 + 1,149.5) / 5,414.1 = 84.4%; FY2024 (2,842.8 + 1,018.9) / 4,255.6 = 90.7%. Dividends 1,270.6 / 7,265.4 = 17.5% of net income; 1,270.6 / 4,891.3 = 26% of free cash flow. Net cash 5,579.2 - 3,722.1 = 1,857.1 (FY2026); 6,390.7 - 4,469.4 = 1,921.3 (FY2025); 5,847.9 - 4,967.4 = 880.5 (FY2024). Treasury stock 31,597.9 / retained earnings 34,950.3 = 0.90. Per share: diluted shares 1,261.1 / 1,770.7 - 1 = -28.8% (FY2015 177.07M pre-split x 10); EPS 5.76 / 0.37 = 15.6 times; net income 7,265.4 / 655.6 = 11.1 times. Additional: Taiwan share 1,671.8 / 14,905.4 = 11.2% (FY2024), 3,477.9 / 17,428.5 = 20.0% (FY2023); Korea 2,205.3 / 3,832.8 - 1 = -42% (FY2019); research growth 2,096.4 / 1,902.4 - 1 = +10.2% (FY2025), 2,375.9 / 2,096.4 - 1 = +13.3% (FY2026); research staff 23,300 x 26% = more than 6,000; United States and Southeast Asia (1,528.9 + 1,245.9) / 23,232.7 = 12.0%; Southeast Asia 1,245.9 / 837.2 - 1 = +48.8%; systems FY2020 6,625.1 / 6,451.1 - 1 = +2.7%, support 3,419.6 / 3,202.5 - 1 = +6.8%; FY2022 to FY2025 support 6,944.3 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +17.6%, systems 11,491.3 / 11,322.3 - 1 = +1.5%; support March 2025 quarter 1,684.9 / 4,720.2 = 35.7%, 2,472.4 / 1,684.9 - 1 = +46.7%; support Q1 to Q4 FY2026 2,472.4 / 1,776.6 - 1 = +39.2%; deferred revenue 2,681 - 2,434 = 247 lower, 2,681 / 5,171.4 = 52% of the June 2025 quarter revenue; receivables 5,339.7 / 6,722.2 = 79%; return on equity 5,358.2 / ((8,539.5 + 9,861.6) / 2) = 58.2% (FY2025), 7,265.4 / ((9,861.6 + 12,470.9) / 2) = 65.1% (FY2026); market value 57.32 / 101.26 - 1 = -43% (calendar 2022); price target 373.13 / 307.16 - 1 = +21%; revenue 23,232.7 / 4,607.3 = 5.0 times (FY2014-FY2026); lab plan 3,000 / 5 = 600 a year. Further: Europe 698.7 / 23,232.7 = 3.0%; China 7,859.8 / 623.4 = 12.6 times (FY2014-FY2026); Korea 4,505.3 / 1,127.4 = 4.0 times; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 1,049.2 = 5.0 times; dividends declared per share 0.92 / 0.80 - 1 = +15%, 1.04 / 0.92 - 1 = +13%; diluted shares (1,261.1 / 1,319.9) ^ (1/2) - 1 = -2.3% a year; buybacks FY2015-FY2026 573.2 + 158.4 + 811.7 + 2,653.2 + 3,780.6 + 1,369.6 + 2,697.7 + 3,865.7 + 2,017.0 + 2,842.8 + 3,422.3 + 3,851.3 = 28,043.5; dividends paid 116.1 + 190.4 + 243.5 + 307.6 + 678.3 + 656.8 + 727.0 + 815.3 + 907.9 + 1,018.9 + 1,149.5 + 1,270.6 = 8,081.9; net income FY2015-FY2026 = 39,567.4; (28,043.5 + 8,081.9) / 39,567.4 = 91%; customer support fell only in FY2024 among FY2020-FY2026, systems fell in FY2023 and FY2024. Cash conversion: operating cash flow / net income 6,173.3 / 5,358.2 = 115% (FY2025); 5,857.7 / 7,265.4 = 81% (FY2026). Valuation: price 307.16 / 52-week high 438.50 - 1 = -30.0%; free cash flow yield 4,891.3 / 384,360 = 1.3%; P/E 384,360 / 7,265.4 = 52.9; P/S 384,360 / 23,232.7 = 16.5 - revenue mix, geography and customer concentration. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Lam Research's Forms 10-K, quarterly results releases, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedThe four most significant customers named in the 10-K are Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1 business and Part III: customers, employees and management. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcCustomers of that size set the terms on which data is shared, as they set payment terms: five customers owed Lam 72% of its receivables at the end of fiscal 2026.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lam Research's reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end in late June). Revenue growth: FY2019 9,653.6 / 11,077.0 - 1 = -12.9%; FY2020 10,044.7 / 9,653.6 - 1 = +4.1%; FY2021 14,626.2 / 10,044.7 - 1 = +45.6%; FY2022 17,227.0 / 14,626.2 - 1 = +17.8%; FY2023 17,428.5 / 17,227.0 - 1 = +1.2%; FY2024 14,905.4 / 17,428.5 - 1 = -14.5%; FY2025 18,435.6 / 14,905.4 - 1 = +23.7%; revenue FY2015-FY2026 23,232.7 / 5,259.3 = 4.4 times. Q4 FY2026 revenue 6,722.2 / 5,171.4 - 1 = +30.0%; Q4 systems 4,249.8 / 3,437.6 - 1 = +23.6%; Q4 customer support 2,472.4 / 1,733.8 - 1 = +42.6%; FY2025 quarterly systems 3,437.6 / 2,392.7 - 1 = +43.7%. Revenue by type: systems FY2023 10,695.9 / 11,322.3 - 1 = -5.5%; FY2024 8,921.6 / 10,695.9 - 1 = -16.6%; customer support FY2023 6,732.6 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +14.0%; FY2024 5,983.7 / 6,732.6 - 1 = -11.1%, a fall of 748.9; FY2021 growth systems +47.4%, support +42.2%; FY2022 systems +16.0%, support +21.5%; FY2025 systems +28.8%, support +16.1%; FY2026 systems +29.5%, support +20.2%; support less systems growth -5.2, +5.5, +19.5, +5.5, -12.7, -9.3 points (FY2021-FY2026). Multiples FY2019-FY2026: customer support 8,347.2 / 3,202.5 = 2.6 times (14.7% a year); systems 14,885.5 / 6,451.1 = 2.3 times (12.7% a year). Cumulative FY2019-FY2026 customer support 45,396.0 of 125,553.6 = 36%. Customer support share of revenue: 3,202.5 / 9,653.6 = 33.2% (FY2019); 3,419.6 / 10,044.7 = 34.0%; 4,861.3 / 14,626.2 = 33.2%; 5,904.8 / 17,227.0 = 34.3%; 6,732.6 / 17,428.5 = 38.6%; 5,983.7 / 14,905.4 = 40.1% (FY2024); 6,944.3 / 18,435.6 = 37.7%; 8,347.2 / 23,232.7 = 35.9% (FY2026). Systems share 65.7%, 61.4%, 59.9%, 62.3%, 64.1% (FY2022-FY2026). Quarterly FY2026 support share 1,776.6 / 5,324.2 = 33.4%; 1,987.3 / 5,344.8 = 37.2%; 2,110.9 / 5,841.5 = 36.1%; 2,472.4 / 6,722.2 = 36.8%. Research and development 2,375.9 / 23,232.7 = 10.2% (FY2026); 825.2 / 5,259.3 = 15.7% (FY2015); 1,033.7 / 8,013.6 = 12.9% (FY2017); 1,191.3 / 9,653.6 = 12.3% (FY2019); 1,493.4 / 14,626.2 = 10.2% (FY2021); 1,727.2 / 17,428.5 = 9.9% (FY2023); 1,902.4 / 14,905.4 = 12.8% (FY2024); 2,375.9 / 825.2 = 2.9 times. Gross margin 2,284.3 / 5,259.3 = 43.4% (FY2015); 3,603.4 / 8,013.6 = 45.0% (FY2017); 4,358.5 / 9,653.6 = 45.1% (FY2019); 6,805.3 / 14,626.2 = 46.5% (FY2021); 7,776.9 / 17,428.5 = 44.6% (FY2023); 7,052.8 / 14,905.4 = 47.3% (FY2024). Operating margin 788.0 / 5,259.3 = 15.0% (FY2015); 1,902.1 / 8,013.6 = 23.7%; 2,464.7 / 9,653.6 = 25.5%; 4,482.0 / 14,626.2 = 30.6%; 5,174.9 / 17,428.5 = 29.7%; 4,263.9 / 14,905.4 = 28.6% (FY2024). Segment gross margin 12,120.0 / 23,232.7 = 52.2%. Region FY2026: China 7,859.8 / 23,232.7 = 33.8%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 23,232.7 = 22.5%; Korea 4,505.3 / 23,232.7 = 19.4%; Japan 2,171.1 / 23,232.7 = 9.3%; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 3,445.2 - 1 = +51.6%; Korea 2,874.0 / 4,037.5 - 1 = -28.8%. China share 1,040.0 / 5,885.9 = 17.7% (FY2016); 1,784.4 / 11,077.0 = 16.1% (FY2018); 3,083.9 / 10,044.7 = 30.7% (FY2020); 5,137.9 / 14,626.2 = 35.1% (FY2021); 4,462.7 / 17,428.5 = 25.6% (FY2023). China revenue FY2022-FY2023 5,411.5 - 4,462.7 = 948.8 lower. Foundry plus memory 54 + 39 = 93%. Long-lived assets in the United States 2,003.4 / 3,353.8 = 60%. Customer concentration (percentages of total revenue): FY2026 16 + 15 + 12 + 12 = 55%; FY2025 17 + 15 = 32%; FY2024 17%; FY2023 22 + 16 = 38%; FY2022 21 + 12 + 12 + 11 = 56%; FY2021 25 + 12 + 10 = 47%; FY2020 24 + 14 + 10 + 10 = 58%; FY2019 15 + 14 + 14 + 14 = 57%; FY2018 25 + 14 + 14 + 13 + 12 = 78%. Accounts receivable June 2026 20 + 16 + 15 + 11 + 10 = 72%. Deferred revenue within a year 1,798.1 / 2,434.0 = 74%; deferred revenue against Q4 revenue 2,434.0 / 6,722.2 = 36%. Cash and capital: free cash flow 5,857.7 - 966.4 = 4,891.3 (FY2026); 6,173.3 - 759.2 = 5,414.1 (FY2025); 4,652.3 - 396.7 = 4,255.6 (FY2024). Shareholder returns 3,851.3 + 1,270.6 = 5,121.9, 5,121.9 / 4,891.3 = 104.7%; FY2025 (3,422.3 + 1,149.5) / 5,414.1 = 84.4%; FY2024 (2,842.8 + 1,018.9) / 4,255.6 = 90.7%. Dividends 1,270.6 / 7,265.4 = 17.5% of net income; 1,270.6 / 4,891.3 = 26% of free cash flow. Net cash 5,579.2 - 3,722.1 = 1,857.1 (FY2026); 6,390.7 - 4,469.4 = 1,921.3 (FY2025); 5,847.9 - 4,967.4 = 880.5 (FY2024). Treasury stock 31,597.9 / retained earnings 34,950.3 = 0.90. Per share: diluted shares 1,261.1 / 1,770.7 - 1 = -28.8% (FY2015 177.07M pre-split x 10); EPS 5.76 / 0.37 = 15.6 times; net income 7,265.4 / 655.6 = 11.1 times. Additional: Taiwan share 1,671.8 / 14,905.4 = 11.2% (FY2024), 3,477.9 / 17,428.5 = 20.0% (FY2023); Korea 2,205.3 / 3,832.8 - 1 = -42% (FY2019); research growth 2,096.4 / 1,902.4 - 1 = +10.2% (FY2025), 2,375.9 / 2,096.4 - 1 = +13.3% (FY2026); research staff 23,300 x 26% = more than 6,000; United States and Southeast Asia (1,528.9 + 1,245.9) / 23,232.7 = 12.0%; Southeast Asia 1,245.9 / 837.2 - 1 = +48.8%; systems FY2020 6,625.1 / 6,451.1 - 1 = +2.7%, support 3,419.6 / 3,202.5 - 1 = +6.8%; FY2022 to FY2025 support 6,944.3 / 5,904.8 - 1 = +17.6%, systems 11,491.3 / 11,322.3 - 1 = +1.5%; support March 2025 quarter 1,684.9 / 4,720.2 = 35.7%, 2,472.4 / 1,684.9 - 1 = +46.7%; support Q1 to Q4 FY2026 2,472.4 / 1,776.6 - 1 = +39.2%; deferred revenue 2,681 - 2,434 = 247 lower, 2,681 / 5,171.4 = 52% of the June 2025 quarter revenue; receivables 5,339.7 / 6,722.2 = 79%; return on equity 5,358.2 / ((8,539.5 + 9,861.6) / 2) = 58.2% (FY2025), 7,265.4 / ((9,861.6 + 12,470.9) / 2) = 65.1% (FY2026); market value 57.32 / 101.26 - 1 = -43% (calendar 2022); price target 373.13 / 307.16 - 1 = +21%; revenue 23,232.7 / 4,607.3 = 5.0 times (FY2014-FY2026); lab plan 3,000 / 5 = 600 a year. Further: Europe 698.7 / 23,232.7 = 3.0%; China 7,859.8 / 623.4 = 12.6 times (FY2014-FY2026); Korea 4,505.3 / 1,127.4 = 4.0 times; Taiwan 5,222.9 / 1,049.2 = 5.0 times; dividends declared per share 0.92 / 0.80 - 1 = +15%, 1.04 / 0.92 - 1 = +13%; diluted shares (1,261.1 / 1,319.9) ^ (1/2) - 1 = -2.3% a year; buybacks FY2015-FY2026 573.2 + 158.4 + 811.7 + 2,653.2 + 3,780.6 + 1,369.6 + 2,697.7 + 3,865.7 + 2,017.0 + 2,842.8 + 3,422.3 + 3,851.3 = 28,043.5; dividends paid 116.1 + 190.4 + 243.5 + 307.6 + 678.3 + 656.8 + 727.0 + 815.3 + 907.9 + 1,018.9 + 1,149.5 + 1,270.6 = 8,081.9; net income FY2015-FY2026 = 39,567.4; (28,043.5 + 8,081.9) / 39,567.4 = 91%; customer support fell only in FY2024 among FY2020-FY2026, systems fell in FY2023 and FY2024. Cash conversion: operating cash flow / net income 6,173.3 / 5,358.2 = 115% (FY2025); 5,857.7 / 7,265.4 = 81% (FY2026). Valuation: price 307.16 / 52-week high 438.50 - 1 = -30.0%; free cash flow yield 4,891.3 / 384,360 = 1.3%; P/E 384,360 / 7,265.4 = 52.9; P/S 384,360 / 23,232.7 = 16.5 - revenue mix, geography and customer concentration. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Lam Research's Forms 10-K, quarterly results releases, XBRL filings and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedLam does not report fleet-service revenue; if it begins to, and the figure is small relative to the $8,347.2 million customer support line, the data layer is a feature rather than a moat.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and revenue notes: revenue by type, region and end market, and margins. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026