Applied Materials: The Rival in the Same ChambersNarrow moat

Lam Research (LRCX) — moat facet

Applied Materials is Lam's rival in both deposition and etch, worth almost exactly the same, and hit by the same China rules.

Applied Materials is the rival Lam names first in both deposition and etch. Lam's 10-K names it as its "primary competitor in the dielectric and metals deposition market" and first among its primary competitors in etch1. Wherever Lam tries to win a qualification, Applied is usually the other tool on the list.

Estimated China export headwind, 2026 ($M)about 600Lam, calendar 2026600Applied, fiscal 2026Finsee on Lam Q1 FY2026 call; Zacks via Yahoo Finance, January 2026
The same hit to both rivals.

The two companies are the same size on the stock market. Lam's market value was $384.36 billion on 24 September 20262; Applied's was $376.36 billion3. They also share the same customers and the same exposure to China: Applied generated 30% of its fiscal 2025 revenue from China, according to Zacks4, against Lam's 34%5.

The export rules hit both about equally. Applied expected a revenue loss of $600 million in its fiscal 2026 from restrictions on some Chinese customers6; Lam's management estimated about $600 million for calendar 20267. Neither gains on the other from Washington.

From Lam's side, the contest is decided at each node's selection and seen afterwards in the mix. Lam's systems revenue rose 29.5% in fiscal 20268, and management expects a third year of outperformance against the wafer fab equipment market9, which implies share gains against its rivals.

Applied's China revenue fell about 16% in its fiscal 2025, to $8.53 billion, according to Zacks10, while Lam's China revenue was flat in its fiscal 2025, $6,205.1 million against $6,294.0 million11. The two companies' fiscal years differ, so the comparison is rough, but neither escaped the rules.

The number that would show Applied winning is Lam's own share of wafer fab equipment spending. The chief financial officer put Lam's served market at about 36% to 36.5% in 202612; a fall back while Applied reports gains in etch or deposition would say the next nodes went the other way.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Equal size, equal China headwind; share settled node by node.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Market value against Applied Materials
$384.36bn vs $376.36bn (24 September 2026)

The market's view of the two rivals; a widening gap in Applied's favour would suggest it is winning the nodes.

Source: AMAT market data (stockanalysis) ↗
References
  1. ReportedLam's 10-K names it as its "primary competitor in the dielectric and metals deposition market" and first among its primary competitors in etch.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1 business: competition and intellectual property. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedLam's market value was $384.36 billion on 24 September 2026; Applied's was $376.36 billion.
    Lam Research (LRCX) market data - $307.16 a share at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $384.36B, 52-week range 125.02-438.50, dividend $1.32 (0.43%). — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedLam's market value was $384.36 billion on 24 September 2026; Applied's was $376.36 billion.
    Applied Materials (AMAT) market data - $474.25 at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $376.36B. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThey also share the same customers and the same exposure to China: Applied generated 30% of its fiscal 2025 revenue from China, according to Zacks, against Lam's 34%.
    Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Lam's China revenue expected to drop below 30% in 2026; Applied Materials' China exposure and estimated $600 million fiscal 2026 revenue loss. — January 2026 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThey also share the same customers and the same exposure to China: Applied generated 30% of its fiscal 2025 revenue from China, according to Zacks, against Lam's 34%.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1 business: competition and intellectual property. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedApplied expected a revenue loss of $600 million in its fiscal 2026 from restrictions on some Chinese customers; Lam's management estimated about $600 million for calendar 2026.
    Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Lam's China revenue expected to drop below 30% in 2026; Applied Materials' China exposure and estimated $600 million fiscal 2026 revenue loss. — January 2026 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedApplied expected a revenue loss of $600 million in its fiscal 2026 from restrictions on some Chinese customers; Lam's management estimated about $600 million for calendar 2026.
    Finsee review of Lam Research's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call - export-control headwind of about $200 million in the December 2025 quarter and about $600 million in calendar 2026. — Q1 FY2026 · publ. October 2025 · source ↗
  8. ReportedLam's systems revenue rose 29.5% in fiscal 2026, and management expects a third year of outperformance against the wafer fab equipment market, which implies share gains against its rivals.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 7 MD&A and revenue notes: revenue by type, region and end market, and margins. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedLam's systems revenue rose 29.5% in fiscal 2026, and management expects a third year of outperformance against the wafer fab equipment market, which implies share gains against its rivals.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - end-market mix of systems revenue, NAND, and China and Taiwan. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedApplied's China revenue fell about 16% in its fiscal 2025, to $8.53 billion, according to Zacks, while Lam's China revenue was flat in its fiscal 2025, $6,205.1 million against $6,294.0 million.
    Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Lam's China revenue expected to drop below 30% in 2026; Applied Materials' China exposure and estimated $600 million fiscal 2026 revenue loss. — January 2026 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedApplied's China revenue fell about 16% in its fiscal 2025, to $8.53 billion, according to Zacks, while Lam's China revenue was flat in its fiscal 2025, $6,205.1 million against $6,294.0 million.
    Lam Research Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 28 June 2026) - Item 1 business: competition and intellectual property. — FY2026 · publ. 7 August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe chief financial officer put Lam's served market at about 36% to 36.5% in 2026; a fall back while Applied reports gains in etch or deposition would say the next nodes went the other way.
    The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Lam Research Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript - installed base, end-market mix of systems revenue, WFE outlook, served market, customer support, China and margin targets - wafer fab equipment outlook, served market, margins and growth targets. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026