✦ Fourteen to Fifteen Percent by 2031Narrow moat

Citigroup (C) — the future bets

Citi has promised better returns three times, and 2026 is the first year it looks like beating the promise.

Citi's plan is a return target, and the target has moved. At its first Investor Day under Jane Fraser, in March 2022, Citi set a medium-term goal of about 11% to 12% return on tangible common equity1. In January 2025 it cut its 2026 expectation to between 10% and 11%, calling that "a waypoint, not a destination"2. At its May 2026 Investor Day it set about 11% to 13% for 2027 and 2028, excluding a notable item, and about 14% to 15% over 2029 to 20313. Coverage of the day said the figures "may have disappointed investors"4.

Citi return targets since 2022Mar 2022about 11-12%medium termJan 202510-11% for 2026May 202611-13% in 2027-28;14-15% by 2029-31Sep 20262026 slightlyabove 11%CNBC; Citi Q4 2024 release; 2026 Investor Day; Barclays conference coverage
Three targets in four years.

The 11% to 12% goal of 2022 was not reached in any of the four years that followed: the return was 8.9% in 2022, 4.9% in 2023, 7.0% in 2024 and 7.7% in 20255.

2026 is different so far. The return was 13.1% in the first half6, and in September the chief financial officer said the full year would finish "slightly above the high end" of the 10% to 11% range7. The shares fell 1.9% on the day of the upgrade8.

The starting point for the new targets is lower than the headline suggests. Citi's Investor Day put 2025 at 7.7% reported and 8.8% excluding notable items9. Reaching 14% to 15% needs roughly six points of improvement from there10, and Citi lists a smaller All Other among the drivers11.

The targets rest on stated assumptions. Citi assumes a normal economy and investment banking fee pool, a Fed Funds rate above 3.00%, revenue growing at a mid-single-digit rate excluding the legacy businesses, an efficiency ratio of 55% to 60%, and a CET1 ratio of 12.6%, rising to 13.1% from 202812.

The Investor Day outlook behind the first step includes net interest income excluding Markets up ~5-6% and a U.S. card loss range of 4.0-4.5%13.

The target gives the market a number to hold Citi to. A full-year return for 2027 below 11% would mean the third target had gone the way of the first.

Moat trajectory: Widening

RoTCE 7.7% (2025), 13.1% (H1 2026).

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Citigroup RoTCE, first half 2026
13.1% (H1 2026) vs 7.7% for 2025

The firm return against a target moved three times; below 11% in 2027 would repeat the 2022 miss.

Source: Citigroup Q2 2026 earnings release ↗
References
  1. ReportedAt its first Investor Day under Jane Fraser, in March 2022, Citi set a medium-term goal of about 11% to 12% return on tangible common equity.
    CNBC, 2 March 2022 - Citigroup's first Investor Day under Jane Fraser sets a medium-term RoTCE target of about 11%-12%. — March 2022 · publ. 2 March 2022 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn January 2025 it cut its 2026 expectation to between 10% and 11%, calling that "a waypoint, not a destination".
    Citigroup fourth-quarter 2024 earnings press release - the 2026 RoTCE expectation cut to 10%-11%. — FY2024 · publ. 15 January 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAt its May 2026 Investor Day it set about 11% to 13% for 2027 and 2028, excluding a notable item, and about 14% to 15% over 2029 to 2031.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateCoverage of the day said the figures "may have disappointed investors".
    Investing.com - Citi shares fall as the bank reveals its 2026 Investor Day RoTCE targets. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe 11% to 12% goal of 2022 was not reached in any of the four years that followed: the return was 8.9% in 2022, 4.9% in 2023, 7.0% in 2024 and 7.7% in 2025.
    Citigroup Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - selected financial data: revenue, net income, EPS, RoTCE, efficiency ratio, deposits, capital ratios and requirements, repurchases and capital returned. — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe return was 13.1% in the first half, and in September the chief financial officer said the full year would finish "slightly above the high end" of the 10% to 11% range.
    Citigroup second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - firm results, returns, efficiency, capital returned, tangible book value and All Other. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. Third-party estimateThe return was 13.1% in the first half, and in September the chief financial officer said the full year would finish "slightly above the high end" of the 10% to 11% range.
    Yahoo Finance / MarketBeat, 15 September 2026 - Citi expects 2026 RoTCE slightly above the high end of its 10%-11% range. — September 2026 · publ. 15 September 2026 · source ↗
  8. Third-party estimateThe shares fell 1.9% on the day of the upgrade.
    Globe and Mail / Zacks - Citigroup lifts its 2026 RoTCE outlook above 11%; shares lost 1.9%. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedCiti's Investor Day put 2025 at 7.7% reported and 8.8% excluding notable items.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcReaching 14% to 15% needs roughly six points of improvement from there, and Citi lists a smaller All Other among the drivers.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Citigroup and peer figures ($ millions unless stated). Deposit cost: Bank of America 34,513 / (1,469,705 + 514,477) = 34,513 / 1,984,182 = 1.74%; Citi non-interest-bearing share 202,705 / 1,363,051 = 14.9%, about 15%; gap to JPMorgan 2.57% - 1.80% = 0.77 points; 0.0077 x 1,363,051 = 10,495, about $10.5 billion a year; 10,495 / 19,828 pre-tax income = 53%, more than half; JPMorgan average deposits 2,506,565 / 1,363,051 = 1.84 times. Market value: JPMorgan 911.91 / Citi 225.24 = 4.05, about four times; Citi / JPMorgan 225.24 / 911.91 = 0.247, about a quarter, about 0.25. Card partners: 12% x 85,225 = 10,227, roughly $10.2 billion. Institutional deposits 934 / 1,403.6 = 66.5%, about two-thirds, about 67%; other deposits 1,403.6 - 934 = 469.6. Banamex stake sold 25% + 22.6% = 47.6%. Shares: period-end common shares 1,747.5 / 1,903.1 - 1 = -8.2%, about 8%; average diluted shares 1,873.1 / 3,007.7 - 1 = -37.7%, about 38%. Market value over tangible common equity at year end ($bn): 2018 127.14 / 151.078 = 0.84; 2019 174.42 / 148.809 = 1.17; 2020 128.37 / 153.389 = 0.84; 2021 119.83 / 157.077 = 0.76; 2022 87.60 / 158.151 = 0.55; 2023 98.45 / 164.025 = 0.60; 2024 133.13 / 167.698 = 0.79; 2025 208.79 / 169.618 = 1.23. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 14,306 - 8,083 + 11,616 = 17,839; revenue 85,225 - 43,264 + 49,399 = 91,360; diluted EPS 6.99 - 3.92 + 6.21 = 9.28; P/E 225,250 / 17,839 = 12.6; P/S 225,250 / 91,360 = 2.47. Year-end P/E and P/S (market value over net income and revenue): 2015 154.16 / 17.242 = 8.94, 154.16 / 77.277 = 1.995; 2016 169.36 / 14.912 = 11.36, / 70.797 = 2.392; 2017 196.74 / 73.693 = 2.670 (net loss); 2018 127.14 / 18.045 = 7.05, / 74.036 = 1.717; 2019 174.42 / 19.401 = 8.99, / 75.067 = 2.324; 2020 128.37 / 11.047 = 11.62, / 75.501 = 1.700; 2021 119.83 / 21.952 = 5.46, / 71.574 = 1.674; 2022 87.60 / 14.845 = 5.90, / 74.982 = 1.168; 2023 98.45 / 9.228 = 10.67, / 78.066 = 1.261; 2024 133.13 / 12.682 = 10.50, / 80.722 = 1.649; 2025 208.79 / 14.306 = 14.59, / 85.225 = 2.450. More: end-of-period deposits 1,493 / 1,403.6 - 1 = 6.4%, about 6%; Markets average loans 176 / 794 total loans = 22.2%, about 22%; JPMorgan deposit-cost gap 2.72 - 1.70 = 1.02 points (2023), 3.06 - 2.08 = 0.98 points (2024), about 1.0 point; Bank of America non-interest-bearing share 514,477 / 1,984,182 = 25.9%, about 26%; Services old-basis average deposits 935 / 1,422 = 65.8%, about 66%; AO Citibank assets 13.5 / 2,657.2 = 0.51%, about 0.5%; loss 1.2 / 13.5 = 8.9%, about 9%. Card partners against the card segment: 10,227 / 18,258 = 56%, more than half. Return improvement to target: 14.5 - 8.8 = 5.7 points, roughly six. Forecast extrapolation: 2026 revenue 49,399 x 2 = 98,798; 2026 EPS 134.28 / 11.58 = 11.60; revenue growth (85,225 / 78,066)^(1/2) - 1 = 4.5% a year. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Citigroup's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, JPMorgan's and Bank of America's Forms 10-K, and market data from stockanalysis and companiesmarketcap; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedReaching 14% to 15% needs roughly six points of improvement from there, and Citi lists a smaller All Other among the drivers.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedCiti assumes a normal economy and investment banking fee pool, a Fed Funds rate above 3.00%, revenue growing at a mid-single-digit rate excluding the legacy businesses, an efficiency ratio of 55% to 60%, and a CET1 ratio of 12.6%, rising to 13.1% from 2028.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe Investor Day outlook behind the first step includes net interest income excluding Markets up ~5-6% and a U.S. card loss range of 4.0-4.5%.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026