⚠ Smaller Is Not Automatically BetterModerate threat

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — threat to the moat

Optum Health's revenue from its own parent fell 9% in a quarter as UnitedHealthcare shed Medicare Advantage members.

Cutting unprofitable contracts raises margins at first, but it also leaves the clinics, staff and systems serving fewer patients. Optum Health's revenue fell about 4% in the first half of 20261, and its affiliated revenue from UnitedHealthcare fell from $15,845 million to $14,353 million in the second quarter2, about 9%3.

Optum Health affiliated revenue, second quarter ($M)15,845Q2 202514,353Q2 2026UnitedHealth Group Form 10-Q Q2 2026 segment note, 2026 basis
Down 9% in a year.

That internal decline is the direct result of UnitedHealthcare serving fewer Medicare Advantage members: 8,445,000 at the end of 2025 and 7,565,000 in June 202645. When the insurer shrinks, its clinics lose patients too.

The risk is a business that keeps shrinking because each round of cuts makes the remaining cost base look expensive.

Optum Health's premium revenue from outside customers also fell, from $4,886 million in the second quarter of 2025 to $4,343 million a year later6. So the shrinking is not only internal: the risk-bearing business with other payers is getting smaller as well.

Affiliated revenue is the figure to watch. If it stabilises as UnitedHealthcare's membership settles, the shrinking is over; if it keeps falling faster than membership, Optum Health is losing its own parent's patients.

References
  1. Moat Explorer calcOptum Health's revenue fell about 4% in the first half of 2026, and its affiliated revenue from UnitedHealthcare fell from $15,845 million to $14,353 million in the second quarter, about 9%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from UnitedHealth Group's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). External revenue by segment = segment revenue less affiliated revenue (10-K segment notes): 2021 UnitedHealthcare 222,899; Optum Health 54,065 - 29,234 = 24,831; Optum Insight 12,199 - 7,867 = 4,332; Optum Rx 91,314 - 55,779 = 35,535; total 287,597. 2022: 249,741; 71,174 - 40,883 = 30,291; 14,581 - 9,288 = 5,293; 99,773 - 60,936 = 38,837; total 324,162. 2023: 281,360; 95,319 - 57,696 = 37,623; 18,932 - 10,896 = 8,036; 116,087 - 71,484 = 44,603; total 371,622. 2024: 298,208; 105,358 - 63,883 = 41,475; 18,757 - 11,881 = 6,876; 133,231 - 79,512 = 53,719; total 400,278. 2025: 344,903; 101,957 - 63,615 = 38,342; 19,417 - 12,948 = 6,469; 154,726 - 96,873 = 57,853; total 447,567. Q2 2026 (2026 basis): 86,017; 23,472 - 14,353 = 9,119; 5,402 - 3,556 = 1,846; 38,292 - 23,242 = 15,050; total 112,032; Optum external 9,119 + 1,846 + 15,050 = 26,015. Optum external revenue = Optum revenue less corporate eliminations: 155,565 - 90,867 = 64,698 (2021); 182,768 - 108,347 = 74,421 (2022); 226,635 - 136,373 = 90,262 (2023); 252,957 - 150,887 = 102,070 (2024); 270,620 - 167,956 = 102,664 (2025); 102,664 / 102,070 - 1 = 0.6%. Optum revenue from inside the group: 90,867 / 155,565 = 58.4%; 108,347 / 182,768 = 59.3%; 136,373 / 226,635 = 60.2%; 150,887 / 252,957 = 59.6%; 167,956 / 270,620 = 62.1%; Q2 2026 39,648 / 65,663 = 60.4%. Affiliated shares 2025: Optum Health 63,615 / 101,957 = 62%; Optum Insight 12,948 / 19,417 = 67%; Optum Rx 96,873 / 154,726 = 63%. Affiliated revenue as share of UnitedHealthcare revenue 167,956 / 344,903 = 49%. Segment shares of consolidated revenue 2025: UnitedHealthcare 344,903 / 447,567 = 77%; Optum Rx 57,853 / 447,567 = 12.9%; Optum Health 38,342 / 447,567 = 8.6%; Optum Insight 6,469 / 447,567 = 1.4%. Q2 2026 UnitedHealthcare 86,017 / 112,032 = 76.8%. Compound growth 2021-2025: UnitedHealthcare (344,903 / 222,899)^(1/4) - 1 = 11.5%; Optum Rx external (57,853 / 35,535)^(1/4) - 1 = 13.0%. Segment margins: UnitedHealthcare 11,975 / 222,899 = 5.4% (2021), 14,379 / 249,741 = 5.8% (2022); Optum Rx 4,135 / 91,314 = 4.5% (2021), 4,436 / 99,773 = 4.4% (2022); Optum Insight 3,398 / 12,199 = 27.9% (2021), 3,588 / 14,581 = 24.6% (2022); Optum Health H1 2026 2,331 / 47,581 = 4.9%. Optum earnings decline 16,703 - 9,539 = 7,164, 7,164 / 16,703 = 42.9%. Optum Health H1 2026 revenue 47,581 / 49,562 - 1 = -4.0%; earnings 2,331 / 1,840 - 1 = +26.7%; affiliated revenue Q2 14,353 / 15,845 - 1 = -9.4%. Optum Health 2025 recast margin -1,115 / 100,051 = -1.1%; 2024 6,902 / 103,516 = 6.7%. Medical care ratio 2015-2019 from EDGAR XBRL medical costs / premiums: 103,875 / 127,163 = 81.7%; 117,038 / 144,118 = 81.2%; 130,036 / 158,453 = 82.1%; 145,403 / 178,087 = 81.6%; 156,440 / 189,699 = 82.5%. Premiums 127,163 (2015) and 257,157 (2022). Operating earnings 11,021 (2015, XBRL). One point of medical care ratio on 2025 premiums: 352,229 x 1% = 3,522; 3,522 / 18,964 = 18.6% of operating earnings. Q2 2026 favorable development 860 / 86,956 premiums = 1.0 point. Membership: commercial risk-based 8,845 - 7,655 = 1,190 thousand, 1,190 / 8,845 = 13.5%; Medicare Advantage 8,445 - 7,565 = 880 thousand, 880 / 8,445 = 10.4%; Medicaid 7,845 - 6,780 = 1,065 thousand, 1,065 / 7,845 = 13.6%; Part D stand-alone (3,315 - 2,710) / 3,315 = 18.3%. Community & State revenue per year-end Medicaid member 75,004 / 7.845 = 9,561 dollars (2023); 94,390 / 7.380 = 12,790 dollars (2025). Optum Rx quarterly scripts (414 - 387) / 414 = 6.5%. Optum Insight backlog: external 32.8 - 12.5 = 20.3 bn (2024), 31.1 - 12.9 = 18.2 bn (2025), change -10.3%; affiliated share 12.5 / 32.8 = 38%, 12.9 / 31.1 = 41%. Cyberattack provider loans 9,033 - 4,514 - 1,680 = 2,839 not yet repaid at end-2025. Market value against peers: 108.78 + 86.37 + 70.16 + 45.67 + 30.59 + 10.07 = 351.64 bn; 338.03 / 351.64 = 96%. CMS premium revenue 44% x 447,567 = 196,929 (about 197 bn); all other 447,567 - 196,929 = 250,638. Medicare & Retirement share of UnitedHealthcare revenue Q2 2026: 42,390 / 86,017 = 49.3%. Premiums share of revenue Q2 2026: 86,956 / 112,032 = 77.6%. Capital returns 2025: dividends 7,916 + buybacks 5,545 = 13,461; 13,461 / 12,056 = 112% of net earnings; free cash flow 19,697 - 3,622 = 16,075; 13,461 / 16,075 = 84%. Goodwill 44,453 (2015, XBRL) and 110,499 (2025); goodwill plus other intangibles 110,499 + 20,474 = 130,973; 130,973 / 309,581 = 42.3% of assets. Long-term debt 25,331 (2015, XBRL). Interest expense / operating earnings: 3,246 / 32,358 = 10.0% (2023); 4,002 / 18,964 = 21.1% (2025). Rate sensitivity net 345 - 273 = 72. Investment income (3,920 - 5,202) / 5,202 = -24.6%; 4,089 / 371,622 = 1.1% of 2023 revenue. Net interest-bearing debt: 6,069 + 72,320 - 28,121 = 50,268 (Dec 2025); 3,827 + 69,501 - 31,468 = 41,860 (Jun 2026). 2025 guidance: original adjusted EPS midpoint (29.50 + 30.00) / 2 = 29.75; April (26.00 + 26.50) / 2 = 26.25; actual 16.35 / 29.75 - 1 = -45%. 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint (19.50 + 20.00) / 2 = 19.75. Progress vs 2026 guidance: operating earnings 16,981 / 25,450 = 66.7%. Q2 2026 operating earnings 7,991 / 5,150 - 1 = +55%. Gross segment revenue 2025: 344,903 + 101,957 + 19,417 + 154,726 = 621,003; less Optum eliminations 5,480 and corporate eliminations 167,956 = 447,567. Medical costs 313,995 / 264,185 - 1 = 18.9%; medical costs payable 39,337 / 34,224 - 1 = 14.9%. Commercial risk-based members 8,165 - 7,725 = 440 thousand (Q1 2026), 7,725 - 7,655 = 70 thousand (Q2 2026). Medicaid 7,380 - 6,780 = 600 thousand (six months to June 2026); 7,845 - 7,380 = 465 thousand (2023-2025). Optum Rx Q4 2025 share of year 2,885 / 7,193 = 40%. Goodwill 110,499 - 106,734 = 3,765. Total debt 6,069 + 72,320 = 78,389. Dividend at 9.28 x 897.6 million shares = 8,330, 8,330 / 16,750 = 50%. Year-end P/E 2015-2020: 19.3, 21.7, 20.2, 20.0, 20.1, 21.6 (market value / net earnings). H1 2026 medical care ratio 148,847 / 174,517 = 85.3%. Part D stand-alone 2,740 - 2,710 = 30 thousand (Q2 2026). Rounded external revenue ($bn): Optum Rx 35.5, 38.8, 44.6, 53.7, 57.9 (2021-2025), 15.1 (Q2 2026); Optum Health 24.8, 30.3, 37.6, 41.5, 38.3, 9.1 (Q2 2026); Optum Insight 4.3, 5.3, 8.0, 6.9, 6.5, 1.8 (Q2 2026); Optum 64.7, 74.4, 90.3, 102.1, 102.7; net debt 50.3 and 41.9; total debt 78.4; UnitedHealthcare revenue 222.9, 249.7, 281.4, 298.2, 344.9. Optum 2026 guidance 13,450 / 9,539 - 1 = +41%. Corporate eliminations Q2 39,648 / 41,712 - 1 = -4.9%. Net interest-bearing debt / total equity 50,268 / 100,090 = 0.50. Valuation: 2026 net margin implied by guidance 16,750 / 439,000 = 3.8%; 2023 net margin 6.0% x 439.0 bn = 26.3 bn; 338.03 / 26.34 = 12.8 times - external revenue by segment, internal revenue shares and concentration. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in UnitedHealth Group's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, SEC EDGAR XBRL and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  2. ReportedOptum Health's revenue fell about 4% in the first half of 2026, and its affiliated revenue from UnitedHealthcare fell from $15,845 million to $14,353 million in the second quarter, about 9%.
    UnitedHealth Group Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment note on the 2026 basis, share repurchases, legal matters and the IRS notices. — Q2 2026 · publ. 10 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcOptum Health's revenue fell about 4% in the first half of 2026, and its affiliated revenue from UnitedHealthcare fell from $15,845 million to $14,353 million in the second quarter, about 9%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from UnitedHealth Group's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). External revenue by segment = segment revenue less affiliated revenue (10-K segment notes): 2021 UnitedHealthcare 222,899; Optum Health 54,065 - 29,234 = 24,831; Optum Insight 12,199 - 7,867 = 4,332; Optum Rx 91,314 - 55,779 = 35,535; total 287,597. 2022: 249,741; 71,174 - 40,883 = 30,291; 14,581 - 9,288 = 5,293; 99,773 - 60,936 = 38,837; total 324,162. 2023: 281,360; 95,319 - 57,696 = 37,623; 18,932 - 10,896 = 8,036; 116,087 - 71,484 = 44,603; total 371,622. 2024: 298,208; 105,358 - 63,883 = 41,475; 18,757 - 11,881 = 6,876; 133,231 - 79,512 = 53,719; total 400,278. 2025: 344,903; 101,957 - 63,615 = 38,342; 19,417 - 12,948 = 6,469; 154,726 - 96,873 = 57,853; total 447,567. Q2 2026 (2026 basis): 86,017; 23,472 - 14,353 = 9,119; 5,402 - 3,556 = 1,846; 38,292 - 23,242 = 15,050; total 112,032; Optum external 9,119 + 1,846 + 15,050 = 26,015. Optum external revenue = Optum revenue less corporate eliminations: 155,565 - 90,867 = 64,698 (2021); 182,768 - 108,347 = 74,421 (2022); 226,635 - 136,373 = 90,262 (2023); 252,957 - 150,887 = 102,070 (2024); 270,620 - 167,956 = 102,664 (2025); 102,664 / 102,070 - 1 = 0.6%. Optum revenue from inside the group: 90,867 / 155,565 = 58.4%; 108,347 / 182,768 = 59.3%; 136,373 / 226,635 = 60.2%; 150,887 / 252,957 = 59.6%; 167,956 / 270,620 = 62.1%; Q2 2026 39,648 / 65,663 = 60.4%. Affiliated shares 2025: Optum Health 63,615 / 101,957 = 62%; Optum Insight 12,948 / 19,417 = 67%; Optum Rx 96,873 / 154,726 = 63%. Affiliated revenue as share of UnitedHealthcare revenue 167,956 / 344,903 = 49%. Segment shares of consolidated revenue 2025: UnitedHealthcare 344,903 / 447,567 = 77%; Optum Rx 57,853 / 447,567 = 12.9%; Optum Health 38,342 / 447,567 = 8.6%; Optum Insight 6,469 / 447,567 = 1.4%. Q2 2026 UnitedHealthcare 86,017 / 112,032 = 76.8%. Compound growth 2021-2025: UnitedHealthcare (344,903 / 222,899)^(1/4) - 1 = 11.5%; Optum Rx external (57,853 / 35,535)^(1/4) - 1 = 13.0%. Segment margins: UnitedHealthcare 11,975 / 222,899 = 5.4% (2021), 14,379 / 249,741 = 5.8% (2022); Optum Rx 4,135 / 91,314 = 4.5% (2021), 4,436 / 99,773 = 4.4% (2022); Optum Insight 3,398 / 12,199 = 27.9% (2021), 3,588 / 14,581 = 24.6% (2022); Optum Health H1 2026 2,331 / 47,581 = 4.9%. Optum earnings decline 16,703 - 9,539 = 7,164, 7,164 / 16,703 = 42.9%. Optum Health H1 2026 revenue 47,581 / 49,562 - 1 = -4.0%; earnings 2,331 / 1,840 - 1 = +26.7%; affiliated revenue Q2 14,353 / 15,845 - 1 = -9.4%. Optum Health 2025 recast margin -1,115 / 100,051 = -1.1%; 2024 6,902 / 103,516 = 6.7%. Medical care ratio 2015-2019 from EDGAR XBRL medical costs / premiums: 103,875 / 127,163 = 81.7%; 117,038 / 144,118 = 81.2%; 130,036 / 158,453 = 82.1%; 145,403 / 178,087 = 81.6%; 156,440 / 189,699 = 82.5%. Premiums 127,163 (2015) and 257,157 (2022). Operating earnings 11,021 (2015, XBRL). One point of medical care ratio on 2025 premiums: 352,229 x 1% = 3,522; 3,522 / 18,964 = 18.6% of operating earnings. Q2 2026 favorable development 860 / 86,956 premiums = 1.0 point. Membership: commercial risk-based 8,845 - 7,655 = 1,190 thousand, 1,190 / 8,845 = 13.5%; Medicare Advantage 8,445 - 7,565 = 880 thousand, 880 / 8,445 = 10.4%; Medicaid 7,845 - 6,780 = 1,065 thousand, 1,065 / 7,845 = 13.6%; Part D stand-alone (3,315 - 2,710) / 3,315 = 18.3%. Community & State revenue per year-end Medicaid member 75,004 / 7.845 = 9,561 dollars (2023); 94,390 / 7.380 = 12,790 dollars (2025). Optum Rx quarterly scripts (414 - 387) / 414 = 6.5%. Optum Insight backlog: external 32.8 - 12.5 = 20.3 bn (2024), 31.1 - 12.9 = 18.2 bn (2025), change -10.3%; affiliated share 12.5 / 32.8 = 38%, 12.9 / 31.1 = 41%. Cyberattack provider loans 9,033 - 4,514 - 1,680 = 2,839 not yet repaid at end-2025. Market value against peers: 108.78 + 86.37 + 70.16 + 45.67 + 30.59 + 10.07 = 351.64 bn; 338.03 / 351.64 = 96%. CMS premium revenue 44% x 447,567 = 196,929 (about 197 bn); all other 447,567 - 196,929 = 250,638. Medicare & Retirement share of UnitedHealthcare revenue Q2 2026: 42,390 / 86,017 = 49.3%. Premiums share of revenue Q2 2026: 86,956 / 112,032 = 77.6%. Capital returns 2025: dividends 7,916 + buybacks 5,545 = 13,461; 13,461 / 12,056 = 112% of net earnings; free cash flow 19,697 - 3,622 = 16,075; 13,461 / 16,075 = 84%. Goodwill 44,453 (2015, XBRL) and 110,499 (2025); goodwill plus other intangibles 110,499 + 20,474 = 130,973; 130,973 / 309,581 = 42.3% of assets. Long-term debt 25,331 (2015, XBRL). Interest expense / operating earnings: 3,246 / 32,358 = 10.0% (2023); 4,002 / 18,964 = 21.1% (2025). Rate sensitivity net 345 - 273 = 72. Investment income (3,920 - 5,202) / 5,202 = -24.6%; 4,089 / 371,622 = 1.1% of 2023 revenue. Net interest-bearing debt: 6,069 + 72,320 - 28,121 = 50,268 (Dec 2025); 3,827 + 69,501 - 31,468 = 41,860 (Jun 2026). 2025 guidance: original adjusted EPS midpoint (29.50 + 30.00) / 2 = 29.75; April (26.00 + 26.50) / 2 = 26.25; actual 16.35 / 29.75 - 1 = -45%. 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint (19.50 + 20.00) / 2 = 19.75. Progress vs 2026 guidance: operating earnings 16,981 / 25,450 = 66.7%. Q2 2026 operating earnings 7,991 / 5,150 - 1 = +55%. Gross segment revenue 2025: 344,903 + 101,957 + 19,417 + 154,726 = 621,003; less Optum eliminations 5,480 and corporate eliminations 167,956 = 447,567. Medical costs 313,995 / 264,185 - 1 = 18.9%; medical costs payable 39,337 / 34,224 - 1 = 14.9%. Commercial risk-based members 8,165 - 7,725 = 440 thousand (Q1 2026), 7,725 - 7,655 = 70 thousand (Q2 2026). Medicaid 7,380 - 6,780 = 600 thousand (six months to June 2026); 7,845 - 7,380 = 465 thousand (2023-2025). Optum Rx Q4 2025 share of year 2,885 / 7,193 = 40%. Goodwill 110,499 - 106,734 = 3,765. Total debt 6,069 + 72,320 = 78,389. Dividend at 9.28 x 897.6 million shares = 8,330, 8,330 / 16,750 = 50%. Year-end P/E 2015-2020: 19.3, 21.7, 20.2, 20.0, 20.1, 21.6 (market value / net earnings). H1 2026 medical care ratio 148,847 / 174,517 = 85.3%. Part D stand-alone 2,740 - 2,710 = 30 thousand (Q2 2026). Rounded external revenue ($bn): Optum Rx 35.5, 38.8, 44.6, 53.7, 57.9 (2021-2025), 15.1 (Q2 2026); Optum Health 24.8, 30.3, 37.6, 41.5, 38.3, 9.1 (Q2 2026); Optum Insight 4.3, 5.3, 8.0, 6.9, 6.5, 1.8 (Q2 2026); Optum 64.7, 74.4, 90.3, 102.1, 102.7; net debt 50.3 and 41.9; total debt 78.4; UnitedHealthcare revenue 222.9, 249.7, 281.4, 298.2, 344.9. Optum 2026 guidance 13,450 / 9,539 - 1 = +41%. Corporate eliminations Q2 39,648 / 41,712 - 1 = -4.9%. Net interest-bearing debt / total equity 50,268 / 100,090 = 0.50. Valuation: 2026 net margin implied by guidance 16,750 / 439,000 = 3.8%; 2023 net margin 6.0% x 439.0 bn = 26.3 bn; 338.03 / 26.34 = 12.8 times - external revenue by segment, internal revenue shares and concentration. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in UnitedHealth Group's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases, SEC EDGAR XBRL and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedThat internal decline is the direct result of UnitedHealthcare serving fewer Medicare Advantage members: 8,445,000 at the end of 2025 and 7,565,000 in June 2026.
    UnitedHealth Group Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 MD&A: consolidated and segment results, medical care ratio, membership and operating metrics. — FY2025 · publ. 2 March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThat internal decline is the direct result of UnitedHealthcare serving fewer Medicare Advantage members: 8,445,000 at the end of 2025 and 7,565,000 in June 2026.
    UnitedHealth Group second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results, operating metrics and people served. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedOptum Health's premium revenue from outside customers also fell, from $4,886 million in the second quarter of 2025 to $4,343 million a year later.
    UnitedHealth Group Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment note on the 2026 basis, share repurchases, legal matters and the IRS notices. — Q2 2026 · publ. 10 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026