⚠ A Record Built on Busy MarketsModerate threat

Goldman Sachs (GS) — threat to the moat

Goldman's record equities quarter came with a third more risk on the books than the year before.

Equities intermediation, the part of the desk paid for moving client orders, is the most market-dependent revenue Goldman has. It was $6,489 million in 2023 and $9,340 million in 20251. In the second quarter of 2026 it reached $4,157 million in three months2.

Average daily VaR ($M)902025 average120Q2 2026Goldman Sachs Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings releases
More risk behind the record.

The same quarter shows how much risk sat behind it. Average daily value-at-risk was $120 million in the second quarter of 2026, against an average of $90 million across 202534, and equity risk alone was $65 million of it5. A desk earning more by holding more risk is doing its job, but the revenue will not repeat if the volatility does not.

The firm's own forward-looking statement lists the triggers it cannot control, including "changes in international trade policies, including the potential for new or increased tariffs"6.

Equity risk rose through the year. Equity prices contributed $55 million of average daily value-at-risk in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 million in the second7. Total value-at-risk went from $112 million to $120 million over the same two quarters8.

The quarter's equities intermediation of $4,157 million compared with $2,718 million in the first quarter and $2,595 million a year earlier9. Revenue jumped by more than half in three months, which is the signature of a volatile market rather than of a new client base.

The next quiet quarter will tell. Intermediation back under $2 billion a quarter with value-at-risk still near $120 million would mean Goldman was carrying the risk without the reward.

References
  1. ReportedIt was $6,489 million in 2023 and $9,340 million in 2025.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment results on the basis restated in the fourth quarter of 2025: net revenues by line, pre-tax earnings, return on equity, average common equity, loans and assets by segment for 2023-2025 - Global Banking & Markets segment results. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 it reached $4,157 million in three months.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - firm results: net revenues, earnings, EPS, returns and costs. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAverage daily value-at-risk was $120 million in the second quarter of 2026, against an average of $90 million across 2025, and equity risk alone was $65 million of it.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - balance sheet, capital, risk, provisions, headcount and capital returned. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAverage daily value-at-risk was $120 million in the second quarter of 2026, against an average of $90 million across 2025, and equity risk alone was $65 million of it.
    Goldman Sachs full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - net revenues by region, net interest income, deposits, loans, AUS rollforward, capital returned and Apple Card effects. — FY2025 · publ. 15 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAverage daily value-at-risk was $120 million in the second quarter of 2026, against an average of $90 million across 2025, and equity risk alone was $65 million of it.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - balance sheet, capital, risk, provisions, headcount and capital returned. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe firm's own forward-looking statement lists the triggers it cannot control, including "changes in international trade policies, including the potential for new or increased tariffs".
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - firm results: net revenues, earnings, EPS, returns and costs. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedEquity prices contributed $55 million of average daily value-at-risk in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 million in the second.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - balance sheet, capital, risk, provisions, headcount and capital returned. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedTotal value-at-risk went from $112 million to $120 million over the same two quarters.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - balance sheet, capital, risk, provisions, headcount and capital returned. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe quarter's equities intermediation of $4,157 million compared with $2,718 million in the first quarter and $2,595 million a year earlier.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - Global Banking & Markets revenue by line for the quarter and half. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026