⚠ Buying Back at the Top of the RangeLow threat

Goldman Sachs (GS) — threat to the moat

Goldman bought back stock at nearly three times tangible book in the latest quarter.

Goldman's second-quarter buybacks were made at an average price of $984.571. On 25 September 2026 the shares closed at $935.45, within a 52-week range of $740.01 to $1,153.992. The quarter's purchases are already under water by about 5%3.

Share price vs latest buyback ($)985Q2 2026 buyback average935Close 25 Sep 2026335TBVPS Dec 2025Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 release and Form 10-K FY2025; stockanalysis
Buying above today.

The firm paid $654.45 a share on average in 2025 and $345.87 in 20234. Tangible book value per share was $335.49 at the end of 20255, so recent buybacks retire shares at close to three times tangible book.

The shares trade at 2.58 times book value and 2.82 times tangible book6. Analysts' average target was $1,141.65 on 25 September 20267, which suggests the market still sees room above the second quarter's buyback price.

The fourth-quarter 2025 buybacks averaged $822.33 a share8, below the current price. The expensive purchases are concentrated in the most recent quarter.

That is not a mistake if returns stay above 15%. It would be one if they fell back to 2023 levels. Buybacks continuing above three times tangible book with returns below 13% would be destroying value for the holders who stay.

References
  1. ReportedGoldman's second-quarter buybacks were made at an average price of $984.57.
    Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2026 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment and line revenues for the quarter and half, earnings, balance sheet, capital, VaR, assets under supervision and the dividend increase - balance sheet, capital, risk, provisions, headcount and capital returned. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOn 25 September 2026 the shares closed at $935.45, within a 52-week range of $740.01 to $1,153.99.
    Goldman Sachs (GS) market data - $935.45 at the close on 25 September 2026, market value $283.22 billion, trailing P/E 14.47, forward P/E 13.76, 52-week range $740.01-$1,153.99, dividend $20.00 (2.14%), analyst target $1,141.65, IPO on 3 May 1999. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcThe quarter's purchases are already under water by about 5%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Goldman Sachs' reported figures ($ millions unless stated; calendar years). Growth: net revenues 2025 58,283 / 53,512 - 1 = 8.9%, about 9%; 2022 47,365 / 59,339 - 1 = -20.2%; net earnings 2022 11,261 / 21,635 - 1 = -47.9%, nearly half; pre-tax earnings 21,852 / 10,739 = 2.03 times, about double; compensation 18,906 / 16,706 - 1 = 13.2%; total operating expenses 37,544 / 33,767 - 1 = 11.2%; preferred dividends 876 / 751 - 1 = 16.6%; CEO pay 47 / 39 - 1 = 20.5%; equities 16,535 / 11,549 - 1 = 43.2%; FICC 14,522 / 12,150 - 1 = 19.5%; FICC intermediation 10,271 / 9,318 - 1 = 10.2%; FICC financing 4,251 / 2,832 - 1 = 50.1%; Global Banking & Markets 41,453 / 29,994 - 1 = 38.2%; GBM pre-tax 17,574 / 11,000 - 1 = 59.8%; advisory 4,726 / 3,299 - 1 = 43.3%; underwriting (1,784 + 2,829) / (1,153 + 1,763) = 4,613 / 2,916 - 1 = 58.2%; investment banking fees 9,339 / 6,215 - 1 = 50.3%; 9,339 - 6,215 = 3,124, about $3.1 billion; Q2 2026 pace 3,395 x 4 = 13,580, 13,580 / 9,339 = 1.45; financing 11.45 / 6.03 = 1.90, close to double; intermediation best/worst 19.6 / 15.8 = 1.24; equity underwriting Q2 985 / 428 - 1 = 130%; H1 2026 equities 12,742 / 8,493 - 1 = 50%. Assets under supervision: 4,041 / 3,606 - 1 = 12.1% (six months); 3,606 / 3,137 - 1 = 15.0%; Q2 2026 rise 4,041 - 3,650 = 391 = inflows 230 + appreciation 161; management and other fees 11,538 / 10,415 - 1 = 10.8%; historical principal investments 9.4 - 6.0 = 3.4 billion; alternatives target 750 - 459 = 291 billion, 291 / 4.5 = 64.7, about 65 a year; 291 x 0.58% = 1.69 billion, about 1.7 billion; Shell mandate 40 / 4,041 = 1.0%; AWM ROE 12.5 + 2.3 = 14.8, near 15%. Shares of revenue: GBM 15,520 / 20,338 = 76.3% (Q2 2026), 41,453 / 58,283 = 71.1% (2025), 29,994 / 46,254 = 64.8% (2023); AWM 16,679 / 58,283 = 28.6% (2025), 16,316 / 53,512 = 30.5% (2024), 14,202 / 46,254 = 30.7% (2023), 4,597 / 20,338 = 22.6% (Q2 2026); equities 7,416 / 15,520 = 47.8% of the segment in Q2 2026; advisory 4,726 / 58,283 = 8.1%; GBM pre-tax 17,574 / 21,852 = 80.4%; FICC plus equities 14,522 + 16,535 = 31,057; Q2 2026 financing 1,216 + 3,259 = 4,475; durable revenues 26.3 / 58.283 = 45.1% (2025), 12.2 / 36.546 = 33.4% (2019); GBM assets 1,582,670 / 1,809,320 = 87.5%; brokered and sweep deposits (47 + 34) / 501 = 16.2%; compensation 18,906 / 37,544 = 50.4% of operating expenses; preferred dividends 876 / 17,176 = 5.1% of net earnings; financing against alternatives fees 11.45 / 2.37 = 4.8, about five times. Margins: GBM pre-tax margin 17,574 / 41,453 = 42.4% (2025), 11,000 / 29,994 = 36.7% (2023); AWM 4,127 / 16,679 = 24.7% (2025), 4,865 / 16,316 = 29.8% (2024), 1,763 / 14,202 = 12.4% (2023). Balance sheet and capital: total assets 2,128 / 1,675.972 - 1 = 27.0% (end-2024 to June 2026); equity 121,996 to about 123,000, almost unchanged; deposits 558 / 433 - 1 = 28.9%, about 29%; loans to deposits 261 / 558 = 46.8%, about 47%; JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 501,000 = 5.1 times; CET1 headroom 12.9 - 11.4 = 1.5 points, about 150 basis points; a repeat of the first-half fall 12.9 - (14.3 - 12.9) = 11.5%; basic shares 298.4 / 322.9 - 1 = -7.6%, about 8% fewer; TBVPS 335.49 / 316.02 - 1 = 6.2%; buyback price 935.45 / 984.57 - 1 = -5.0%; first-half ROE 21.7 - 1.7 = 20.0%; Platform Solutions pre-tax losses 783 + 1,047 + 1,989 + 2,175 + 1,075 = 7,069, about $7.1 billion. Valuation: trailing twelve months to June 2026 net revenues 58,283 - 29,645 + 37,565 = 66,203; net earnings 17,176 - 8,461 + 12,258 = 20,973; diluted EPS 51.32 - 25.07 + 38.51 = 64.76; P/E 283,220 / 20,973 = 13.5; P/S 283,220 / 66,203 = 4.28; year-end P/E 263.64 / 17.176 = 15.35 (2025), 179.75 / 14.276 = 12.59 (2024), 125.80 / 8.516 = 14.77 (2023), 128.08 / 21.635 = 5.92 (2021); 52-week high 935.45 / 1,153.99 - 1 = -18.9%, about 19% below; Morgan Stanley gap 308.32 - 283.22 = 25.1 billion; market value on basic shares 298.4 x 935.45 = 279.1 billion. Further: Platform Solutions provisions against revenue (old basis) 1,728 / 1,502 = 115% (2022), 1,135 / 2,378 = 47.7%, about 48% (2023), 1,540 / 2,427 = 63.5%, about 63% (2024); 2021 to 2022 revenue fall 59,339 - 47,365 = 11,974, about $12 billion; Q2 2026 equities less Q1 7,416 - 5,326 = 2,090; AWM revenue 2025 16,679 / 16,316 - 1 = 2.2%; liquidity products 1,065 / 4,041 = 26.4%, about a quarter; AUS year on year 4,041 / 3,293 - 1 = 22.7%, about 23%; alternatives 459 / 2,976 = 15.4% of long-term AUS; private banking and lending H1 2026 638 + 689 = 1,327, x 2 = 2,654, near $2.7 billion; VaR factors before diversification 82 + 65 + 19 + 30 = 196; GBM Q1 2026 12,738 / 17,227 = 73.9%, about 74%; transaction banking and private bank deposits (70 + 101) / 501 = 34.1%, about a third; GBM assets share 87.5%, nearly nine-tenths; EMEA 2025 14,155 / 12,250 - 1 = 15.6%, about 16%; unsecured long-term borrowings 285,500 / 242,634 - 1 = 17.7%, about 18%; JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 2,406,032 - 1 = 6.4%; Goldman deposits 501 / 433 - 1 = 15.7%, about 16%; H1 2026 financing 2,278 + 5,867 = 8,145; Q2 2026 compensation 6,104 / 4,685 - 1 = 30.3%; diluted shares 321.4 / 306.5 - 1 = 4.9%, about 5%; advisory 2025 4,726 / 3,534 - 1 = 33.7%, about 34%; underwriting 2025 (1,784 + 2,829) / (1,677 + 2,521) = 4,613 / 4,198 - 1 = 9.9%, about 10%; debt share of underwriting 2,829 / 4,613 = 61.3%, about three-fifths; wealth channel 1,041 / 862 - 1 = 20.8%, about 21%; CET1 ratio 101,657 / 790,640 = 12.86%; 101,657 / 800,640 = 12.70%, so 10 billion of RWAs costs about 16 basis points; GBM pre-tax Q2 2026 7,499 / 4,075 - 1 = 84.0%; market value 2025 263.64 / 179.75 - 1 = 46.7% - valuation, balance sheet, capital and cost arithmetic. — FY2019-Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Goldman Sachs' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, its earnings releases and presentations, JPMorgan's Form 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedThe firm paid $654.45 a share on average in 2025 and $345.87 in 2023.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - consolidated results of operations and financial statements. — FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedTangible book value per share was $335.49 at the end of 2025, so recent buybacks retire shares at close to three times tangible book.
    Goldman Sachs Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial targets, capital, returns, funding and capital returned. — FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe shares trade at 2.58 times book value and 2.82 times tangible book.
    Goldman Sachs (GS) statistics - 302.77 million shares, P/B 2.58, P/TBV 2.82, institutions 72.54%, next earnings date 13 October 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAnalysts' average target was $1,141.65 on 25 September 2026, which suggests the market still sees room above the second quarter's buyback price.
    Goldman Sachs (GS) market data - $935.45 at the close on 25 September 2026, market value $283.22 billion, trailing P/E 14.47, forward P/E 13.76, 52-week range $740.01-$1,153.99, dividend $20.00 (2.14%), analyst target $1,141.65, IPO on 3 May 1999. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe fourth-quarter 2025 buybacks averaged $822.33 a share, below the current price.
    Goldman Sachs full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 earnings results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - net revenues by region, net interest income, deposits, loans, AUS rollforward, capital returned and Apple Card effects. — FY2025 · publ. 15 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026