⚠ The Gigawatt Orders Are Few and LargeModerate threat

Caterpillar (CAT) — threat to the moat

Caterpillar's power backlog increasingly rests on a few multi-gigawatt orders, whose concentration it does not disclose.

The growth in power generation increasingly arrives in very large pieces. The AIP order was 2 gigawatts of generator sets for a campus with a total potential of about 8 gigawatts1, and management called it one of its largest single orders for complete power solutions2.

AIP Monarch order (gigawatts)2Caterpillar orderabout 8Campus potentialCaterpillar Q4 2025 earnings call
One order, a quarter of one campus.

Large orders help the backlog and concentrate it. Caterpillar does not disclose its largest customers or any backlog concentration, so an investor cannot tell how much of the $72.1 billion3 rests on a handful of projects. What the company does disclose is that the backlog's largest increase came in Power & Energy4.

Data centre projects are financed by developers and cloud operators whose plans can change. An order for a campus that is later scaled back becomes a deferral or a cancellation, and it would hit the long end of the book first.

The large customers are also asking for more. The chief executive said on the second-quarter 2026 call that customers were asking Caterpillar to give them more units if it could get more out5, and that some Power & Energy customers were placing orders as far out as 20306. The demand is real; its concentration is not disclosed.

The backlog's long end is where that shows. If the part not expected to ship within twelve months, $29.2 billion at June 20267, stops growing while the company is still announcing large orders, some older orders are being cut.

References
  1. ReportedThe AIP order was 2 gigawatts of generator sets for a campus with a total potential of about 8 gigawatts, and management called it one of its largest single orders for complete power solutions.
    Caterpillar fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call transcript (company PDF) - services revenues, tariff headwinds, power generation, autonomous trucks and the AIP order. — Q4 2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe AIP order was 2 gigawatts of generator sets for a campus with a total potential of about 8 gigawatts, and management called it one of its largest single orders for complete power solutions.
    Caterpillar fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call transcript (company PDF) - services revenues, tariff headwinds, power generation, autonomous trucks and the AIP order. — Q4 2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCaterpillar does not disclose its largest customers or any backlog concentration, so an investor cannot tell how much of the $72.1 billion rests on a handful of projects.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - MD&A: order backlog, dealer inventory, tariffs, IEEPA recoveries and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedWhat the company does disclose is that the backlog's largest increase came in Power & Energy.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - MD&A: order backlog, dealer inventory, tariffs, IEEPA recoveries and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe chief executive said on the second-quarter 2026 call that customers were asking Caterpillar to give them more units if it could get more out, and that some Power & Energy customers were placing orders as far out as 2030.
    The Motley Fool, Caterpillar Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and summary - lead times, backlog delivery, rental demand, Wamego, the 10-megawatt engine restart and Skycatch. — Q2 2026 · publ. 11 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe chief executive said on the second-quarter 2026 call that customers were asking Caterpillar to give them more units if it could get more out, and that some Power & Energy customers were placing orders as far out as 2030.
    The Motley Fool, Caterpillar Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and summary - lead times, backlog delivery, rental demand, Wamego, the 10-megawatt engine restart and Skycatch. — Q2 2026 · publ. 11 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIf the part not expected to ship within twelve months, $29.2 billion at June 2026, stops growing while the company is still announcing large orders, some older orders are being cut.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - MD&A: order backlog, dealer inventory, tariffs, IEEPA recoveries and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026