⚠ Oil and Gas Spending TurnsModerate threat
Caterpillar (CAT) — threat to the moat
Caterpillar's oil and gas sales halved in 2020 and could again, whatever happens in data centres.
Oil and gas customers cut spending quickly when prices fall, and Caterpillar has seen it. Oil and gas sales were $3,701 million in 20201, about half the 2025 figure of $7,502 million2.
Some of the exposure is to the most cyclical part of the industry. In the second quarter of 2026 the company cited higher sales of engines used in well servicing applications, along with turbines and turbine-related services3. Well servicing is where American shale drilling budgets are decided quarter to quarter.
Sales to users of oil and gas equipment show the swings: up 36% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and up 6% in the second quarter of 20264.
The industrial application shows how fast one of these businesses can turn. Industrial sales to users fell 8% in the second quarter of 2026 after rising 14% in the fourth quarter of 20255. Within Power & Energy, not every application is booming at once.
A sustained fall in oil and gas sales to users would be the signal. Two negative quarters would say the energy cycle has turned inside Power & Energy even while power generation still grows.
- ReportedOil and gas sales were $3,701 million in 2020, about half the 2025 figure of $7,502 million.Caterpillar Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 - segment sales and profit for 2020-2022, the dealer count, sales by application, and the $925 million Rail goodwill impairment. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
- ReportedOil and gas sales were $3,701 million in 2020, about half the 2025 figure of $7,502 million.Caterpillar Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: history, products, Cat Financial, employees and order backlog. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026 the company cited higher sales of engines used in well servicing applications, along with turbines and turbine-related services.Caterpillar second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - consolidated results, cash deployment and the CEO's statement. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedSales to users of oil and gas equipment show the swings: up 36% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and up 6% in the second quarter of 2026.Caterpillar second-quarter 2026 retail sales statistics (sales to users), Form 8-K exhibit 99.2. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedIndustrial sales to users fell 8% in the second quarter of 2026 after rising 14% in the fourth quarter of 2025.Caterpillar second-quarter 2026 retail sales statistics (sales to users), Form 8-K exhibit 99.2. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗