⚠ The Customer Who Cannot WaitModerate threat

Caterpillar (CAT) — threat to the moat

With lead times into late 2028, Caterpillar is sending some of the data-centre boom to its competitors.

Scarcity has a cost Caterpillar cannot see in its backlog: the orders it never received. The annual report names Cummins, Deutz, Rolls-Royce Power Systems and Siemens Energy as principal global competitors in Power & Energy, with GE Vernova, INNIO and Everllence among the others it lists1.

Power & Energy rivals named by CaterpillarPrincipal globalCummins, Deutz, Rolls-Royce Power Systems, Siemens EnergyOther enginesVolvo Penta, FPT Industrial, INNIO, Weichai PowerTurbinesGE Vernova, KawasakiLead timesinto late 2028 and beyondPG sales growth Q2 2026+29%Caterpillar Form 10-K FY2025; Q2 2026 call and release
The rivals who can take the overflow.

A data centre developer with a fixed opening date will buy from whoever can deliver. With lead times into late 20282, Caterpillar is effectively telling some customers to go elsewhere.

The company is racing to prevent it: the capacity plan now aims to take large reciprocating engine capacity to nearly three times 2024 levels3. But capacity arrives in steps over several years, and competitors are expanding into the same demand.

Scale of the new capacity matters here. The report on the first-quarter call said the new capacity would add roughly 15 gigawatts of annual output once installed, and that six separate customer agreements already exceeded 1 gigawatt each4. Against that demand, 1.5 gigawatts from the restarted engine line5 is a useful stopgap rather than a solution.

The share of power generation growth Caterpillar keeps is the question, and it cannot be measured directly because market shares are not disclosed. The nearest proxy is power generation sales growth: if it falls well below the 29% of the second quarter of 20266 while the data-centre market still grows, the orders are going elsewhere.

References
  1. ReportedThe annual report names Cummins, Deutz, Rolls-Royce Power Systems and Siemens Energy as principal global competitors in Power & Energy, with GE Vernova, INNIO and Everllence among the others it lists.
    Caterpillar Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: competitive environment by segment. — FY2025 · publ. 13 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedWith lead times into late 2028, Caterpillar is effectively telling some customers to go elsewhere.
    The Motley Fool, Caterpillar Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and summary - lead times, backlog delivery, rental demand, Wamego, the 10-megawatt engine restart and Skycatch. — Q2 2026 · publ. 11 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateThe company is racing to prevent it: the capacity plan now aims to take large reciprocating engine capacity to nearly three times 2024 levels.
    TIKR blog on Caterpillar's first-quarter 2026 results - large engine capacity target raised to nearly three times 2024, 2030 growth target of 6% to 9%, frame agreements and gigawatt-scale customers. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateThe report on the first-quarter call said the new capacity would add roughly 15 gigawatts of annual output once installed, and that six separate customer agreements already exceeded 1 gigawatt each.
    TIKR blog on Caterpillar's first-quarter 2026 results - large engine capacity target raised to nearly three times 2024, 2030 growth target of 6% to 9%, frame agreements and gigawatt-scale customers. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAgainst that demand, 1.5 gigawatts from the restarted engine line is a useful stopgap rather than a solution.
    The Motley Fool, Caterpillar Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and summary - lead times, backlog delivery, rental demand, Wamego, the 10-megawatt engine restart and Skycatch. — Q2 2026 · publ. 11 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe nearest proxy is power generation sales growth: if it falls well below the 29% of the second quarter of 2026 while the data-centre market still grows, the orders are going elsewhere.
    Caterpillar second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment results and Cat Financial credit. — Q2 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026