✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Caterpillar (CAT) — the future bets

Caterpillar has published its bets as numbers: power generation more than tripled and the whole company growing 6-9% a year to 2030.

Caterpillar's future bets are unusually public, because it set numerical targets at its Investor Day in November 2025 and raised several of them since. The enterprise target is sales growth of 6% to 9% a year from 2024 to 2030, raised from 5% to 7% in April 2026, and power generation sales are projected to more than triple by 2030 from a 2024 base1. The services target is $30 billion by 2030, from $24 billion in 20252.

Caterpillar 2030 targets against the 2025 position24Services 2025 ($bn)30Services 2030 ($bn)9.5MP&E FCF 2025 ($bn)15MP&E FCF2030 top ($bn)Caterpillar Barclays fireside deck, February 2026
Every target measured against 2025.

The four bets on these pages are power generation capacity, autonomy and mining software, digital service, and the scale of the whole company by 2030. They differ in risk. Power is a bet on demand that already exists and on building fast enough to meet it. Autonomy and digital service are bets on deepening relationships with customers Caterpillar already has. The 2030 scale target is the sum of all of them.

Capital spending is the common cost. Caterpillar expects capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion in 20263, and additional spending on engine capacity will run mostly from 2027 through 20294.

Management's own scorecard for the bets is published. Against 2024, construction sales to users stood at 1.05 times in 2025 with a 2030 target of 1.25 times; autonomous trucks at 1.2 times against a target of 3 times; and power generation sales at 1.3 times against more than 2 times5. The April 2026 update then lifted the power generation ambition to more than triple the 2024 base6.

The bets are being funded from the same cash that pays the dividend and the buybacks. Caterpillar expects capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion in 20267 and still aims to return substantially all MP&E free cash flow to shareholders over time8. The two promises hold together only as long as free cash flow keeps rising.

The bets are narrow but widening, because they build on moats Caterpillar already has. The test is the enterprise growth rate: sales and revenues are now expected to grow in the mid-to-high teens in 20269; if growth falls back below 6% a year before 2030, the targets were set at a peak.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Targets raised in April 2026; 2026 growth guided in the mid-to-high teens.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
2026 sales and revenues growth guidance
Mid-to-high teens (Q2 2026 10-Q), against a 6-9% annual 2030 target

Progress toward the 2030 targets; growth falling below 6% a year before 2030 would mean the targets were set at a peak.

Source: Caterpillar Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Power Generation, More Than Tripled by 2030
Caterpillar is betting that power generation sales will more than triple from 2024 to 2030, to above about $23 billion.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Autonomy and Mining Software: RPMGlobal and Skycatch
Caterpillar paid about $733 million for mining software to make its trucks part of a system a mine cannot easily leave.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
Digital Service: eCommerce and Condition Monitoring
Caterpillar wants its connected machines to order their own parts, and has set a 2030 target of 500,000 tech-enabled machines from 191,000.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
A $100 Billion Company by the 2030s?
Caterpillar's targets would make it a company of roughly $92-109 billion of sales by 2030, with margins rising as it grows.
References
  1. Third-party estimateThe enterprise target is sales growth of 6% to 9% a year from 2024 to 2030, raised from 5% to 7% in April 2026, and power generation sales are projected to more than triple by 2030 from a 2024 base.
    TIKR blog on Caterpillar's first-quarter 2026 results - large engine capacity target raised to nearly three times 2024, 2030 growth target of 6% to 9%, frame agreements and gigawatt-scale customers. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe services target is $30 billion by 2030, from $24 billion in 2025.
    Caterpillar presentation for the Barclays fireside chat, 18 February 2026 - Investor Day targets, services, MP&E free cash flow, share count, buyback prices and the OPACC reconciliation. — 2019-2025 · publ. 18 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCaterpillar expects capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion in 2026, and additional spending on engine capacity will run mostly from 2027 through 2029.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - MD&A: order backlog, dealer inventory, tariffs, IEEPA recoveries and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. Third-party estimateCaterpillar expects capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion in 2026, and additional spending on engine capacity will run mostly from 2027 through 2029.
    TIKR blog on Caterpillar's first-quarter 2026 results - large engine capacity target raised to nearly three times 2024, 2030 growth target of 6% to 9%, frame agreements and gigawatt-scale customers. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAgainst 2024, construction sales to users stood at 1.05 times in 2025 with a 2030 target of 1.25 times; autonomous trucks at 1.2 times against a target of 3 times; and power generation sales at 1.3 times against more than 2 times.
    Caterpillar presentation for the Barclays fireside chat, 18 February 2026 - Investor Day targets, services, MP&E free cash flow, share count, buyback prices and the OPACC reconciliation. — 2019-2025 · publ. 18 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. Third-party estimateThe April 2026 update then lifted the power generation ambition to more than triple the 2024 base.
    TIKR blog on Caterpillar's first-quarter 2026 results - large engine capacity target raised to nearly three times 2024, 2030 growth target of 6% to 9%, frame agreements and gigawatt-scale customers. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedCaterpillar expects capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion in 2026 and still aims to return substantially all MP&E free cash flow to shareholders over time.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - financial statements and notes: balance sheet, cash flow and the RPMGlobal acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedCaterpillar expects capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion in 2026 and still aims to return substantially all MP&E free cash flow to shareholders over time.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - financial statements and notes: balance sheet, cash flow and the RPMGlobal acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe test is the enterprise growth rate: sales and revenues are now expected to grow in the mid-to-high teens in 2026; if growth falls back below 6% a year before 2030, the targets were set at a peak.
    Caterpillar Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog, outlook, tariffs, dealer inventory, balance sheet and the RPMGlobal acquisition - MD&A: order backlog, dealer inventory, tariffs, IEEPA recoveries and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026