The Return GapNarrow moat

Wells Fargo (WFC) — moat facet

Wells Fargo has the cheapest deposits of the big three and the worst cost base, so its return gap is a management problem, not a moat problem.

The puzzle at the centre of Wells Fargo is that it has the cheapest money of the three largest deposit banks and earns the least on it. Return on tangible common equity was 14.6% in 20251, against 20% at JPMorgan2 and 14.22% at Bank of America3.

ROTCE, 2025 (%)20%JPMorgan14.6%Wells Fargo14.22%Bank of America17.7%Wells Fargo Q2 2026Forms 10-K FY2025 of each bank; Wells Fargo Q2 2026 release
Behind JPMorgan for the year, closing in the quarter.

The cause is cost, not funding. Wells Fargo's efficiency ratio was 66% in 20254; JPMorgan's overhead ratio was 52%5. Fourteen points on $83,699 million of revenue is about $11.7 billion a year6.

The gap is closing. Return on tangible common equity was 17.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and 16.1% in the first half7, and the efficiency ratio was 60% in the quarter8. The bank says it met its old 15% target and has set "a new medium-term target of 17-18%"9.

Some of the improvement is leverage, as the equity stayed flat while the balance sheet grew, and some is a strong market for trading and deals. But the direction is right.

One-off costs have also depressed returns. The bank expensed an estimated $1.9 billion for the special deposit insurance assessment in the fourth quarter of 202310, and took $448 million of net losses on repositioning its investment portfolio in the fourth quarter of 202411. Return on equity, which includes goodwill, was 11.0% in 2023, 11.4% in 2024 and 12.4% in 202512.

The pieces of the gap can be seen by segment. In 2025 Consumer Banking and Lending returned 16.7% on its allocated capital, Commercial Banking 15.1%, Corporate and Investment Banking 15.6% and Wealth and Investment Management 31.7%13. No segment was far below the bank's 10% hurdle, and none except wealth was far above it.

The market prices the gap: Wells Fargo traded at 11.9 times earnings in September 2026 against 14.7 for JPMorgan14.

This facet is narrow because the gap is the bank's own doing, and what a bank did it can undo. The test is a full year at 17% or more; a year back near 14% would mean the gap was structural after all.

Moat trajectory: Widening

ROTCE 14.6% (2025) to 17.7% (Q2 2026); efficiency 66% to 60%.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
ROTCE, first half
16.1% (H1 2026) vs 14.4% (H1 2025)

Progress on the return gap over a half-year; a full year back near 14% would mean the gap was structural.

Source: Wells Fargo Q2 2026 earnings presentation ↗
Aspects of the moat
DIG DEEPER 01
Sixty-Six Percent
Wells Fargo's efficiency ratio of 66% is the whole explanation for why it earns less than JPMorgan on cheaper deposits.
DIG DEEPER 02
197,466 People
Wells Fargo cut its staff by 7% in the year it grew its assets by 15%.
DIG DEEPER 03
An 8.5 Percent Requirement
Wells Fargo needs only 8.5% of common equity against risk, the lowest requirement it has had, and it is spending the difference.
DIG DEEPER 04
Tangible Equity Has Not Grown
Part of Wells Fargo's rising return comes from running the same equity against a much larger balance sheet.
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Revenue Flat for a Decade
Wells Fargo's revenue was lower in 2025 than in 2015, and its returns improved only by shrinking.
⚠ THREAT 02
A Target Reached in a Good Quarter
Wells Fargo hit its return target in a quarter helped by venture gains and a tax benefit.
References
  1. ReportedReturn on tangible common equity was 14.6% in 2025, against 20% at JPMorgan and 14.22% at Bank of America.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial highlights, income statement, capital, share repurchases and ratios. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedReturn on tangible common equity was 14.6% in 2025, against 20% at JPMorgan and 14.22% at Bank of America.
    JPMorgan Chase Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - deposits, cost of total deposits, ROTCE, overhead ratio and CET1. — FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedReturn on tangible common equity was 14.6% in 2025, against 20% at JPMorgan and 14.22% at Bank of America.
    Bank of America Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - deposits, average balances and interest on deposits, ROTCE and efficiency ratio. — FY2025 · publ. 25 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedWells Fargo's efficiency ratio was 66% in 2025; JPMorgan's overhead ratio was 52%.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial highlights, income statement, capital, share repurchases and ratios. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedWells Fargo's efficiency ratio was 66% in 2025; JPMorgan's overhead ratio was 52%.
    JPMorgan Chase Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - deposits, cost of total deposits, ROTCE, overhead ratio and CET1. — FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcFourteen points on $83,699 million of revenue is about $11.7 billion a year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Wells Fargo's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Deposits: cost of total deposits = interest on interest-bearing deposits / (average interest-bearing + average noninterest-bearing deposits): 2020 2,804 / 1,376,011 = 0.20%; 2021 388 / 1,437,812 = 0.03%; 2022 2,349 / 1,424,269 = 0.16%; 2023 16,503 / 1,346,282 = 1.23%; 2024 24,282 / 1,345,915 = 1.80%; 2025 20,449 / (987,198 + 360,047 = 1,347,245) = 1.52%. Bank of America 2025: 34,513 / (1,469,705 + 514,477 = 1,984,182) = 1.74%. Gap to JPMorgan 1.80% - 1.52% = 0.28 points x 1,347,245 = about 3,772 (about $3.8 billion); gap to Bank of America 1.74% - 1.52% = 0.22 points. Noninterest-bearing share of average deposits: 2020 412,669 / 1,376,011 = 30.0%; 2021 499,644 / 1,437,812 = 34.8%; 2022 505,770 / 1,424,269 = 35.5%; 2023 399,737 / 1,346,282 = 29.7%; 2024 352,379 / 1,345,915 = 26.2%; 2025 360,047 / 1,347,245 = 26.7%. Average deposits 2023-2025 range 1,345,915 to 1,347,245 = 1,330 (about $1.3 billion). Period-end deposits 1,371,804 / 1,335,991 - 1 = 2.7% (Dec 2017 to Dec 2024); Dec 2025 to Jun 2026 1,501,405 - 1,426,207 = 75,198 (about $75 billion). Consumer Banking and Lending share of average deposits Q2 2026 828.4 / 1,465.6 = 57%. Held-to-maturity: Dec 2024 carrying 234,948 - fair value 193,779 = 41,169 unrealised loss; June 2026 loss 32,408 / common equity 165,000 = 19.6%. Balance sheet: total assets 2,282,201 / 1,951,757 - 1 = 16.9% above the 2017 cap level; 2,282,201 - 1,929,845 = 352,356 (about $352 billion); 2,282,201 / 1,929,845 - 1 = 18.3% (about 18%). CIB total assets 862,472 / 597,278 - 1 = 44%. Average loans Q2 2026 1,026.5 - 916.7 = 109.8; CIB 359.4 - 285.9 = 73.5; 73.5 / 109.8 = 67% (about two-thirds). CIB share of average loans 359.4 / 1,026.5 = 35.0% (Q2 2026); 285.9 / 916.7 = 31.2% (Q2 2025). Trading-related assets 401.5 / 283.7 - 1 = 41.5%; Markets loans 111.2 / 79.0 - 1 = 40.8%; CIB average loans 359.4 / 285.9 - 1 = 25.7%. Tangible common equity / total assets: Dec 2024 135.6 / 1,929.8 = 7.0%; June 2026 139.7 / 2,282.2 = 6.1%. Branches 4,079 - 5,032 = -953; 4,079 / 5,032 - 1 = -19%. Mobile active customers 33.7 / 29.9 - 1 = 13%. Headcount 197,466 / 212,804 - 1 = -7%. Personnel expense 36,281 / noninterest expense 54,842 = 66% (about two-thirds). Efficiency gap to JPMorgan (66% - 52%) x 83,699 = about 11,718 (about $11.7 billion). JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 1,426,207 - 1 = 79%; market value 911.91 / 250.90 = 3.6 times. Capital: CET1 headroom 10.3% - 8.5% = 1.8 points. Returned 2025 (17.7 billion buybacks + 6.5 billion dividends - 1.053 billion preferred dividends) / 20.285 billion net income to common = 114%. Average diluted shares 3,242.3 / 5,108.3 - 1 = -36.5% (2016 to 2025). EPS 6.26 / 4.12 - 1 = 52%. Revenue 83,699 / 86,057 - 1 = -2.7% (2015 to 2025). Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 21,436 + 21,292 + 21,446 + 22,622 = 86,796; net income 5,589 + 5,361 + 5,253 + 6,407 = 22,610; EPS 1.66 + 1.62 + 1.60 + 2.00 = 6.88. First half 2026: net income 5,253 + 6,407 = 11,660; net interest income 12,096 + 12,317 = 24,413; noninterest expense 14,330 + 13,661 = 27,991, about 50.3% of the ~55,700 guidance. Market value 250.90 / 298.75 - 1 = -16% (end 2017 to Sept 2026). Segments (2025): revenue 37,362 + 11,978 + 19,232 + 16,328 = 84,900; plus Corporate 747, less Reconciling Items 1,948 = 83,699. Shares of segment revenue: Consumer Banking and Lending 37,362 / 84,900 = 44%; Commercial Banking 11,978 / 84,900 = 14%; CIB 19,232 / 84,900 = 23%; Wealth and Investment Management 16,328 / 84,900 = 19%. Shares of company net income 21,338: Consumer Banking and Lending 7,865 = 37%; CIB 7,283 = 34%; Commercial Banking 4,184 = 20%; Wealth and Investment Management 2,119 = 10%. CIB share of segment net income 7,283 / (7,865 + 4,184 + 7,283 + 2,119 = 21,451) = 34%; of total revenue 19,232 / 83,699 = 23%. Wealth net income / revenue 2,119 / 16,328 = 13%. Commercial Banking net income 4,184 / 5,104 - 1 = -18%. CIB Banking 2,522 + 2,507 + 2,008 = 7,037. Investment banking 2,008 / 1,404 - 1 = 43%. Credit card revenue 6,375 / 5,809 - 1 = 10%; Auto 1,016 / 1,464 - 1 = -31%. Advisory assets 1,127 / 891 - 1 = 26%. Consumer Banking and Lending share of Q2 2026 revenue 10,288 / 22,622 = 45%. Consumer Banking and Lending provision 3,362 / total provision 3,658 = 92%. Markets loans 111.2 - 79.0 = 32.2; 32.2 / 73.5 = 44% of the CIB loan increase. Investment banking share of CIB revenue 1,404 / 19,191 = 7% (2023); 2,008 / 19,232 = 10% (2025). Debit plus credit card purchase volume 530.5 + 186.0 = 716.5 billion. More deposits: noninterest-bearing deposits 505,770 - 360,047 = 145,723 (about $146 billion, 2022 to 2025); average deposits 1,424,269 - 1,347,245 = 77,024 (about $77 billion). Interest on interest-bearing deposits 24,282 - 20,449 = 3,833 (about $3.8 billion). Bank of America 2024 all-in deposit cost 38,442 / 1,924,106 = 2.00%. JPMorgan average deposits 2,506,565 / 1,347,245 = 1.9 times. Average loans to average deposits Q2 2026 1,026.5 / 1,465.6 = 70%. Bank of America deposits 2,018,729 / 1,426,207 - 1 = 42%. Held-to-maturity share of total assets 198,573 / 2,282,201 = 8.7% (June 2026); 208,023 / 2,148,631 = 9.7% (Dec 2025). More balance sheet and valuation: branches closed 5,032 - 4,777 = 255 (2021); 4,598 - 4,311 = 287 (2023); 4,177 - 4,090 = 87 (2025); 4,090 - 4,079 = 11 (H1 2026); 4,311 - 4,079 = 232 (end 2023 to June 2026). Second half 2025 assets 2,148,631 - 1,981,269 = 167,362 (about $167 billion). Market value 233.86 / 298.75 - 1 = -22% (end 2017 to end 2024); Bank of America 394.32 / 250.90 - 1 = 57%; market value over trailing net income 250.90 / 22.61 = 11.1 times. Risk-weighted assets 137.7 / 0.103 = about 1,337 billion (about $1.34 trillion). Total equity 182,323 / 2,282,201 = 8.0%. 2016 penalties 100 + 35 + 50 = 185 million. Commercial Banking net interest income 7,902 / 11,978 = 66%. Consumer Banking and Lending deposit surplus 779,994 - 322,052 = 457,942 (about $458 billion) - capital, balance sheet, valuation, returns and comparisons with JPMorgan and Bank of America. — Length additions: held-to-maturity Dec 2025 208,023 - 175,797 = 32,226; carrying value 208,023 - 198,573 = 9,450 (about $9.5 billion in six months). Interest on interest-bearing deposits 16,503 / 2,349 = 7.0 (about seven times). Consumer Banking and Lending net interest income 29,183 / 37,362 = 78%. Average deposits per branch 1,437,812 / 4,777 = 301 (2021); 1,347,245 / 4,090 = 329 (2025). Deposits Dec 2024 to Jun 2026 1,501,405 - 1,371,804 = 129,601 (about $130 billion). TLAC cushion 23.22 - 21.50 = 1.72 points; 22.81 - 21.50 = 1.31 points. CIB assets 862,472 / 2,282,201 = 38%; CIB period-end assets 787,751 / 597,278 - 1 = 32%. CIB investment banking 1,814 / 1,404 - 1 = 29%; 2,008 / 1,814 - 1 = 11%; Q2 2026 628 / 5,425 = 12%. CIB revenue per dollar of expense 19,232 / 9,436 = 2.04; Consumer Banking and Lending 37,362 / 23,515 = 1.59. CRE 5,083 / 19,232 = 26%. Q2 2026 expense 13,661 / 13,379 - 1 = 2.1%; revenue 22,622 / 20,822 - 1 = 8.6%. Headcount 205 - 197 = 8 thousand. Average assets per employee 1,933.4 / 212,804 = $9.1 million (Q2 2025); 2,227.9 / 197,466 = $11.3 million (Q2 2026), +24%. Personnel expense per employee 36,281 / 205,000 = 0.177 ($177,000). Efficiency gap to Bank of America (66% - 61.65%) x 83,699 = 3,641 (about $3.6 billion). Risk-weighted assets about 1,340 billion x 1% = about $13 billion per point; 9.80% - 8.50% = 1.30 points x 1,340 = about $17 billion. Stockholders equity 180,190 / 206,936 - 1 = -12.9%. Charge-offs 876 x 4 = 3,504 (about $3.5 billion); 14,129 / 139,700 = 10.1%. JPMorgan cost of total deposits 2024 2.08% against Wells Fargo 1.80%. ROTCE H1 2026 16.1% - 14.4% = 1.7 points. Target 17.5% x 139.7 = 24.4 billion; 24.4 / 20.285 = 1.20. Net income 6,407 x 4 = 25,628 (about $25.6 billion). H1 2026 expense 27,991 / 55,700 = 50.3%; net interest income 24,413 / 50,000 = 48.8%. Credit card revenue 6,375 / 5,908 - 1 = 7.9%; Auto 1,016 / 1,464 - 1 = -30.6%. Home Lending 3,364 / 37,362 = 9.0%; originations 26.3 / 986.2 = 2.7%. Buybacks 22.7 billion / 79.80 = 284 million shares; 284 / 3,085.6 = 9.2%. Tangible book 1 / 1.79 = 0.56. Dividend 0.50 x 4 x 3.02 billion = 6.04 (about $6.0 billion). Accounts 16 million / 32.8 million = 49%. Remediation 236 / 160,700 = 0.15%. Advisory assets 1,127 / 2,509 = 45%. Investment banking fees 3,027 / 83,699 = 3.6%. Advisory fees 10,498 / 36,215 = 29%. Branches 4,090 - 4,079 = 11. Buyback runway 22.7 / 17.7 = 1.3 years (about fifteen months); 22.7 / (7 x 2) = 1.6 years. Deposits 1,347,245 / 1,376,011 - 1 = -2.1%. Q2 2026 consumer bank share 10,288 / 22,622 = 45%. Card fees 4,589 / mortgage banking 1,152 = 4.0. 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Wells Fargo's annual reports, Forms 10-Q, earnings releases and presentations, JPMorgan's and Bank of America's Forms 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. ReportedReturn on tangible common equity was 17.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and 16.1% in the first half, and the efficiency ratio was 60% in the quarter.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - capital, capital return and credit quality. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedReturn on tangible common equity was 17.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and 16.1% in the first half, and the efficiency ratio was 60% in the quarter.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - capital, capital return and credit quality. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe bank says it met its old 15% target and has set "a new medium-term target of 17-18%".
    Wells Fargo fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - full-year 2025 results, net interest margin, severance, the $15 billion of gross expense reductions and the new 17-18% ROTCE target. — Q4 2025 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe bank expensed an estimated $1.9 billion for the special deposit insurance assessment in the fourth quarter of 2023, and took $448 million of net losses on repositioning its investment portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2024.
    Wells Fargo 2024 Annual Report (financial statements and MD&A), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - customer remediation accruals, the CFPB order termination, the 9.80% CET1 requirement and the debit interchange and overdraft rules. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe bank expensed an estimated $1.9 billion for the special deposit insurance assessment in the fourth quarter of 2023, and took $448 million of net losses on repositioning its investment portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2024.
    Wells Fargo fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - full-year 2025 results, net interest margin, severance, the $15 billion of gross expense reductions and the new 17-18% ROTCE target. — Q4 2025 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedReturn on equity, which includes goodwill, was 11.0% in 2023, 11.4% in 2024 and 12.4% in 2025.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - financial highlights, income statement, capital, share repurchases and ratios. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedIn 2025 Consumer Banking and Lending returned 16.7% on its allocated capital, Commercial Banking 15.1%, Corporate and Investment Banking 15.6% and Wealth and Investment Management 31.7%.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - operating segment note and segment tables (Table 19.1, revenue by line of business, selected metrics). — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  14. Third-party estimateThe market prices the gap: Wells Fargo traded at 11.9 times earnings in September 2026 against 14.7 for JPMorgan.
    companiesmarketcap, Wells Fargo P/E ratio and peer P/E ratios (JPMorgan 14.7, Bank of America 12.9, Wells Fargo 11.9). — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026