⚠ Paid by the Rate CycleModerate threat

Wells Fargo (WFC) — threat to the moat

Wells Fargo's cheap deposits are worth most when rates are high, and the bank's own estimate says a 1-point cut costs $1.9 billion a year.

Much of what makes Wells Fargo's deposits valuable depends on interest rates staying where they are. The bank's own estimate is that an instant 100 basis point fall in rates would cut net interest income over the next twelve months by $1.9 billion, and a 200 basis point fall by $4.4 billion; a 100 basis point rise would add $1.3 billion1.

Change in 12-month net interest income ($bn)-4.4-200bp-1.9-100bp+1.3+100bpWells Fargo Form 10-Q Q2 2026, interest rate sensitivity, June 2026
A bank that wants rates to stay up.

The margin is already falling. The net interest margin was 2.68% in the second quarter of 2025 and 2.43% in the second quarter of 20262, partly because the new balance sheet went into thinner assets.

The bank planned for lower rates. Its January outlook assumed "Two to three fed funds rate cuts in 2026"3, and it still expects net interest income of about $50 billion4. The first half produced $24,413 million5.

This is less a threat to the moat than to the reported return. Cheap deposits are worth most when rates are high, because the bank keeps more of the spread. In a world of low rates the advantage over JPMorgan shrinks along with everyone's margin.

The sensitivity has come down as the bank grew. At the end of 2025 a 100 basis point fall was estimated to cost $2.3 billion and a 200 basis point fall $5.3 billion6. A steeper curve helps a little: a 100 basis point rise in long-term rates would add $0.4 billion7. The average loan yield was 5.60% in the second quarter, 35 basis points lower than a year earlier8.

The bank's growth partly offsets the rate risk. Net interest income was $12,317 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $11,708 million a year earlier9, even as the margin fell, because the balance sheet grew faster. If the growth slowed while rates fell, both effects would work against it at once.

The plan leans on growth to beat the rate cuts. The bank assumed two to three cuts in 202610, yet it guides to net interest income of about $50 billion11, above 2025's $47,484 million12; if loan growth slowed, the cuts would win.

Everything here comes back to the margin. A fall below 2.3% while the balance sheet was still growing would mean the growth was diluting the franchise faster than it added to it.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
Net interest margin, latest quarter
2.43% (Q2 2026) vs 2.68% a year earlier

The spread the deposits earn; a fall below 2.3% with the balance sheet still growing would mean the growth was diluting the franchise.

Source: Wells Fargo Q2 2026 earnings presentation ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe bank's own estimate is that an instant 100 basis point fall in rates would cut net interest income over the next twelve months by $1.9 billion, and a 200 basis point fall by $4.4 billion; a 100 basis point rise would add $1.3 billion.
    Wells Fargo Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - balance sheet, capital requirements, interest rate sensitivity, segment assets, headcount and legal actions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe net interest margin was 2.68% in the second quarter of 2025 and 2.43% in the second quarter of 2026, partly because the new balance sheet went into thinner assets.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - consolidated results, deposit cost, capital and the 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIts January outlook assumed "Two to three fed funds rate cuts in 2026", and it still expects net interest income of about $50 billion.
    Wells Fargo fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - the 2026 outlook and its rate assumptions. — Q4 2025 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts January outlook assumed "Two to three fed funds rate cuts in 2026", and it still expects net interest income of about $50 billion.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - the 2026 outlook, deposit cost and loan yield. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThe first half produced $24,413 million.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Wells Fargo's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Deposits: cost of total deposits = interest on interest-bearing deposits / (average interest-bearing + average noninterest-bearing deposits): 2020 2,804 / 1,376,011 = 0.20%; 2021 388 / 1,437,812 = 0.03%; 2022 2,349 / 1,424,269 = 0.16%; 2023 16,503 / 1,346,282 = 1.23%; 2024 24,282 / 1,345,915 = 1.80%; 2025 20,449 / (987,198 + 360,047 = 1,347,245) = 1.52%. Bank of America 2025: 34,513 / (1,469,705 + 514,477 = 1,984,182) = 1.74%. Gap to JPMorgan 1.80% - 1.52% = 0.28 points x 1,347,245 = about 3,772 (about $3.8 billion); gap to Bank of America 1.74% - 1.52% = 0.22 points. Noninterest-bearing share of average deposits: 2020 412,669 / 1,376,011 = 30.0%; 2021 499,644 / 1,437,812 = 34.8%; 2022 505,770 / 1,424,269 = 35.5%; 2023 399,737 / 1,346,282 = 29.7%; 2024 352,379 / 1,345,915 = 26.2%; 2025 360,047 / 1,347,245 = 26.7%. Average deposits 2023-2025 range 1,345,915 to 1,347,245 = 1,330 (about $1.3 billion). Period-end deposits 1,371,804 / 1,335,991 - 1 = 2.7% (Dec 2017 to Dec 2024); Dec 2025 to Jun 2026 1,501,405 - 1,426,207 = 75,198 (about $75 billion). Consumer Banking and Lending share of average deposits Q2 2026 828.4 / 1,465.6 = 57%. Held-to-maturity: Dec 2024 carrying 234,948 - fair value 193,779 = 41,169 unrealised loss; June 2026 loss 32,408 / common equity 165,000 = 19.6%. Balance sheet: total assets 2,282,201 / 1,951,757 - 1 = 16.9% above the 2017 cap level; 2,282,201 - 1,929,845 = 352,356 (about $352 billion); 2,282,201 / 1,929,845 - 1 = 18.3% (about 18%). CIB total assets 862,472 / 597,278 - 1 = 44%. Average loans Q2 2026 1,026.5 - 916.7 = 109.8; CIB 359.4 - 285.9 = 73.5; 73.5 / 109.8 = 67% (about two-thirds). CIB share of average loans 359.4 / 1,026.5 = 35.0% (Q2 2026); 285.9 / 916.7 = 31.2% (Q2 2025). Trading-related assets 401.5 / 283.7 - 1 = 41.5%; Markets loans 111.2 / 79.0 - 1 = 40.8%; CIB average loans 359.4 / 285.9 - 1 = 25.7%. Tangible common equity / total assets: Dec 2024 135.6 / 1,929.8 = 7.0%; June 2026 139.7 / 2,282.2 = 6.1%. Branches 4,079 - 5,032 = -953; 4,079 / 5,032 - 1 = -19%. Mobile active customers 33.7 / 29.9 - 1 = 13%. Headcount 197,466 / 212,804 - 1 = -7%. Personnel expense 36,281 / noninterest expense 54,842 = 66% (about two-thirds). Efficiency gap to JPMorgan (66% - 52%) x 83,699 = about 11,718 (about $11.7 billion). JPMorgan deposits 2,559,320 / 1,426,207 - 1 = 79%; market value 911.91 / 250.90 = 3.6 times. Capital: CET1 headroom 10.3% - 8.5% = 1.8 points. Returned 2025 (17.7 billion buybacks + 6.5 billion dividends - 1.053 billion preferred dividends) / 20.285 billion net income to common = 114%. Average diluted shares 3,242.3 / 5,108.3 - 1 = -36.5% (2016 to 2025). EPS 6.26 / 4.12 - 1 = 52%. Revenue 83,699 / 86,057 - 1 = -2.7% (2015 to 2025). Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 21,436 + 21,292 + 21,446 + 22,622 = 86,796; net income 5,589 + 5,361 + 5,253 + 6,407 = 22,610; EPS 1.66 + 1.62 + 1.60 + 2.00 = 6.88. First half 2026: net income 5,253 + 6,407 = 11,660; net interest income 12,096 + 12,317 = 24,413; noninterest expense 14,330 + 13,661 = 27,991, about 50.3% of the ~55,700 guidance. Market value 250.90 / 298.75 - 1 = -16% (end 2017 to Sept 2026). Segments (2025): revenue 37,362 + 11,978 + 19,232 + 16,328 = 84,900; plus Corporate 747, less Reconciling Items 1,948 = 83,699. Shares of segment revenue: Consumer Banking and Lending 37,362 / 84,900 = 44%; Commercial Banking 11,978 / 84,900 = 14%; CIB 19,232 / 84,900 = 23%; Wealth and Investment Management 16,328 / 84,900 = 19%. Shares of company net income 21,338: Consumer Banking and Lending 7,865 = 37%; CIB 7,283 = 34%; Commercial Banking 4,184 = 20%; Wealth and Investment Management 2,119 = 10%. CIB share of segment net income 7,283 / (7,865 + 4,184 + 7,283 + 2,119 = 21,451) = 34%; of total revenue 19,232 / 83,699 = 23%. Wealth net income / revenue 2,119 / 16,328 = 13%. Commercial Banking net income 4,184 / 5,104 - 1 = -18%. CIB Banking 2,522 + 2,507 + 2,008 = 7,037. Investment banking 2,008 / 1,404 - 1 = 43%. Credit card revenue 6,375 / 5,809 - 1 = 10%; Auto 1,016 / 1,464 - 1 = -31%. Advisory assets 1,127 / 891 - 1 = 26%. Consumer Banking and Lending share of Q2 2026 revenue 10,288 / 22,622 = 45%. Consumer Banking and Lending provision 3,362 / total provision 3,658 = 92%. Markets loans 111.2 - 79.0 = 32.2; 32.2 / 73.5 = 44% of the CIB loan increase. Investment banking share of CIB revenue 1,404 / 19,191 = 7% (2023); 2,008 / 19,232 = 10% (2025). Debit plus credit card purchase volume 530.5 + 186.0 = 716.5 billion. More deposits: noninterest-bearing deposits 505,770 - 360,047 = 145,723 (about $146 billion, 2022 to 2025); average deposits 1,424,269 - 1,347,245 = 77,024 (about $77 billion). Interest on interest-bearing deposits 24,282 - 20,449 = 3,833 (about $3.8 billion). Bank of America 2024 all-in deposit cost 38,442 / 1,924,106 = 2.00%. JPMorgan average deposits 2,506,565 / 1,347,245 = 1.9 times. Average loans to average deposits Q2 2026 1,026.5 / 1,465.6 = 70%. Bank of America deposits 2,018,729 / 1,426,207 - 1 = 42%. Held-to-maturity share of total assets 198,573 / 2,282,201 = 8.7% (June 2026); 208,023 / 2,148,631 = 9.7% (Dec 2025). More balance sheet and valuation: branches closed 5,032 - 4,777 = 255 (2021); 4,598 - 4,311 = 287 (2023); 4,177 - 4,090 = 87 (2025); 4,090 - 4,079 = 11 (H1 2026); 4,311 - 4,079 = 232 (end 2023 to June 2026). Second half 2025 assets 2,148,631 - 1,981,269 = 167,362 (about $167 billion). Market value 233.86 / 298.75 - 1 = -22% (end 2017 to end 2024); Bank of America 394.32 / 250.90 - 1 = 57%; market value over trailing net income 250.90 / 22.61 = 11.1 times. Risk-weighted assets 137.7 / 0.103 = about 1,337 billion (about $1.34 trillion). Total equity 182,323 / 2,282,201 = 8.0%. 2016 penalties 100 + 35 + 50 = 185 million. Commercial Banking net interest income 7,902 / 11,978 = 66%. Consumer Banking and Lending deposit surplus 779,994 - 322,052 = 457,942 (about $458 billion) - capital, balance sheet, valuation, returns and comparisons with JPMorgan and Bank of America. — Length additions: held-to-maturity Dec 2025 208,023 - 175,797 = 32,226; carrying value 208,023 - 198,573 = 9,450 (about $9.5 billion in six months). Interest on interest-bearing deposits 16,503 / 2,349 = 7.0 (about seven times). Consumer Banking and Lending net interest income 29,183 / 37,362 = 78%. Average deposits per branch 1,437,812 / 4,777 = 301 (2021); 1,347,245 / 4,090 = 329 (2025). Deposits Dec 2024 to Jun 2026 1,501,405 - 1,371,804 = 129,601 (about $130 billion). TLAC cushion 23.22 - 21.50 = 1.72 points; 22.81 - 21.50 = 1.31 points. CIB assets 862,472 / 2,282,201 = 38%; CIB period-end assets 787,751 / 597,278 - 1 = 32%. CIB investment banking 1,814 / 1,404 - 1 = 29%; 2,008 / 1,814 - 1 = 11%; Q2 2026 628 / 5,425 = 12%. CIB revenue per dollar of expense 19,232 / 9,436 = 2.04; Consumer Banking and Lending 37,362 / 23,515 = 1.59. CRE 5,083 / 19,232 = 26%. Q2 2026 expense 13,661 / 13,379 - 1 = 2.1%; revenue 22,622 / 20,822 - 1 = 8.6%. Headcount 205 - 197 = 8 thousand. Average assets per employee 1,933.4 / 212,804 = $9.1 million (Q2 2025); 2,227.9 / 197,466 = $11.3 million (Q2 2026), +24%. Personnel expense per employee 36,281 / 205,000 = 0.177 ($177,000). Efficiency gap to Bank of America (66% - 61.65%) x 83,699 = 3,641 (about $3.6 billion). Risk-weighted assets about 1,340 billion x 1% = about $13 billion per point; 9.80% - 8.50% = 1.30 points x 1,340 = about $17 billion. Stockholders equity 180,190 / 206,936 - 1 = -12.9%. Charge-offs 876 x 4 = 3,504 (about $3.5 billion); 14,129 / 139,700 = 10.1%. JPMorgan cost of total deposits 2024 2.08% against Wells Fargo 1.80%. ROTCE H1 2026 16.1% - 14.4% = 1.7 points. Target 17.5% x 139.7 = 24.4 billion; 24.4 / 20.285 = 1.20. Net income 6,407 x 4 = 25,628 (about $25.6 billion). H1 2026 expense 27,991 / 55,700 = 50.3%; net interest income 24,413 / 50,000 = 48.8%. Credit card revenue 6,375 / 5,908 - 1 = 7.9%; Auto 1,016 / 1,464 - 1 = -30.6%. Home Lending 3,364 / 37,362 = 9.0%; originations 26.3 / 986.2 = 2.7%. Buybacks 22.7 billion / 79.80 = 284 million shares; 284 / 3,085.6 = 9.2%. Tangible book 1 / 1.79 = 0.56. Dividend 0.50 x 4 x 3.02 billion = 6.04 (about $6.0 billion). Accounts 16 million / 32.8 million = 49%. Remediation 236 / 160,700 = 0.15%. Advisory assets 1,127 / 2,509 = 45%. Investment banking fees 3,027 / 83,699 = 3.6%. Advisory fees 10,498 / 36,215 = 29%. Branches 4,090 - 4,079 = 11. Buyback runway 22.7 / 17.7 = 1.3 years (about fifteen months); 22.7 / (7 x 2) = 1.6 years. Deposits 1,347,245 / 1,376,011 - 1 = -2.1%. Q2 2026 consumer bank share 10,288 / 22,622 = 45%. Card fees 4,589 / mortgage banking 1,152 = 4.0. 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Wells Fargo's annual reports, Forms 10-Q, earnings releases and presentations, JPMorgan's and Bank of America's Forms 10-K and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedAt the end of 2025 a 100 basis point fall was estimated to cost $2.3 billion and a 200 basis point fall $5.3 billion.
    Wells Fargo Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - balance sheet, capital requirements, interest rate sensitivity, segment assets, headcount and legal actions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedA steeper curve helps a little: a 100 basis point rise in long-term rates would add $0.4 billion.
    Wells Fargo Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - balance sheet, capital requirements, interest rate sensitivity, segment assets, headcount and legal actions. — Q2 2026 · publ. 28 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe average loan yield was 5.60% in the second quarter, 35 basis points lower than a year earlier.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - the 2026 outlook, deposit cost and loan yield. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedNet interest income was $12,317 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $11,708 million a year earlier, even as the margin fell, because the balance sheet grew faster.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - consolidated results, credit quality, capital and the chief executive's comments. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe bank assumed two to three cuts in 2026, yet it guides to net interest income of about $50 billion, above 2025's $47,484 million; if loan growth slowed, the cuts would win.
    Wells Fargo fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - the 2026 outlook and its rate assumptions. — Q4 2025 · publ. 14 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe bank assumed two to three cuts in 2026, yet it guides to net interest income of about $50 billion, above 2025's $47,484 million; if loan growth slowed, the cuts would win.
    Wells Fargo second-quarter 2026 earnings presentation, Form 8-K exhibit 99.3 - segment returns, deposit cost, market shares and the 2026 outlook - the 2026 outlook, deposit cost and loan yield. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe bank assumed two to three cuts in 2026, yet it guides to net interest income of about $50 billion, above 2025's $47,484 million; if loan growth slowed, the cuts would win.
    Wells Fargo 2025 Annual Report to Shareholders (financial statements, MD&A and segment note), part of the Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - average balance sheet, deposits, net interest income and securities. — FY2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026