◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Home Depot (HD) — the variant view

At 20 times earnings and near its 52-week low, Home Depot is priced for a core that never recovers and distributors that never earn more than 2.5%.

📈 HD valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Home Depot's shares have fallen hard. At $293.20 on 25 September 2026 the market value was $292.52 billion, down 28.3% in a year, and the price was near the bottom of a 52-week range of $289.10 to $411.411. At the end of 2021 the company was worth $433.37 billion2.

Price to earnings26.3xHD at FYE Feb 202620.5xHD trailing, Sep 202619.0xHD forward16.0xLowes trailingstockanalysis ratios and quote pages, 25 September 2026
The premium has shrunk by a quarter.

The multiple has come down with it. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 20.52 and the forward ratio 19.013, against 26.34 at the fiscal year end in February 20264. Lowe's trades at 16.005.

The market is pricing a core that no longer grows, a chief executive on medical leave6 and buybacks that will not resume in fiscal 20267. Those are fair worries.

What it may be missing is the distributors' margin. The Other segment earned 2.5% on sales in fiscal 2025, but 5.6% before amortisation of acquired intangibles8, and the amortisation is an accounting cost of past purchases. If integration lifts that business toward the stores' economics, the dilution that has pulled the company's operating margin from 14.2% to 12.7%9 partly reverses. Meanwhile the Primary segment's margin was 15.4% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up from 15.1%10.

The market may also be treating the housing freeze as permanent. The company's recovery case, 4% to 5% comparable sales11, is not in the price.

Analysts are more hopeful than the market. Their average price target was $377.19, about 29% above the share price, with a buy rating12. The shares traded below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $327.22 and $340.7713. A price near the 52-week low with a target far above it is either an opportunity or a sign the analysts have not caught up with a slower business.

The dividend offers some compensation for waiting. At $9.32 a year the shares yield about 3.2%1415, and the dividend has been paid through every year of the flat run16. An investor buying at today's price is paid while the housing question resolves, which is not something the market offered at 26 times earnings.

The number that decides it is the Other segment's operating margin before amortisation. Above 7% within two years would make today's price look like the bottom of a cycle; stuck near 5% would make it fair.

References
  1. ReportedAt $293.20 on 25 September 2026 the market value was $292.52 billion, down 28.3% in a year, and the price was near the bottom of a 52-week range of $289.10 to $411.41.
    Home Depot (HD) market data - $293.20 at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $292.52B (down 28.3% in a year), trailing P/E 20.52, forward P/E 19.01, dividend $9.32 (3.18%), 52-week range 289.10-411.41, TTM revenue $169.18B. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAt the end of 2021 the company was worth $433.37 billion.
    Home Depot market capitalisation history - year-end values 2015-2025 ($167.68B in 2015, $433.37B in 2021, $342.56B in 2025). — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 20.52 and the forward ratio 19.01, against 26.34 at the fiscal year end in February 2026.
    Home Depot (HD) market data - $293.20 at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $292.52B (down 28.3% in a year), trailing P/E 20.52, forward P/E 19.01, dividend $9.32 (3.18%), 52-week range 289.10-411.41, TTM revenue $169.18B. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 20.52 and the forward ratio 19.01, against 26.34 at the fiscal year end in February 2026.
    Home Depot ratios by fiscal year - market capitalisation of $409,246 million at the fiscal year end of February 2025 and $372,909 million at February 2026; P/E 27.64 and 26.34. — Fiscal 2021-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedLowe's trades at 16.00.
    Lowe's (LOW) market data - $189.28, market cap $106.20B, TTM revenue $90.43B, net income $6.63B, P/E 16.00. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe market is pricing a core that no longer grows, a chief executive on medical leave and buybacks that will not resume in fiscal 2026.
    The Home Depot release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1: interim management plans while chief executive Ted Decker takes a temporary medical leave. — August 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe market is pricing a core that no longer grows, a chief executive on medical leave and buybacks that will not resume in fiscal 2026.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 1 business and Item 2 properties: stores, Pros, SRS, competition and supply chain. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
  8. Moat Explorer calcThe Other segment earned 2.5% on sales in fiscal 2025, but 5.6% before amortisation of acquired intangibles, and the amortisation is an accounting cost of past purchases.
    Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - balance sheet, cash flow, capital returns and valuation. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  9. Moat Explorer calcIf integration lifts that business toward the stores' economics, the dilution that has pulled the company's operating margin from 14.2% to 12.7% partly reverses.
    Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - segments, sales, traffic and margins. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  10. Moat Explorer calcMeanwhile the Primary segment's margin was 15.4% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up from 15.1%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - segments, sales, traffic and margins. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedThe company's recovery case, 4% to 5% comparable sales, is not in the price.
    The Home Depot Investor and Analyst Conference release: preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, a home improvement market of -1% to +1%, an approximately $1.1 trillion addressable market and the Market Recovery Case. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  12. ReportedTheir average price target was $377.19, about 29% above the share price, with a buy rating.
    Home Depot (HD) market data - $293.20 at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $292.52B (down 28.3% in a year), trailing P/E 20.52, forward P/E 19.01, dividend $9.32 (3.18%), 52-week range 289.10-411.41, TTM revenue $169.18B. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe shares traded below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $327.22 and $340.77.
    Home Depot (HD) statistics - P/B 17.61, 50-day average 327.22, 200-day average 340.77. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedAt $9.32 a year the shares yield about 3.2%, and the dividend has been paid through every year of the flat run.
    Home Depot (HD) market data - $293.20 at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $292.52B (down 28.3% in a year), trailing P/E 20.52, forward P/E 19.01, dividend $9.32 (3.18%), 52-week range 289.10-411.41, TTM revenue $169.18B. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  15. Moat Explorer calcAt $9.32 a year the shares yield about 3.2%, and the dividend has been paid through every year of the flat run.
    Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - balance sheet, cash flow, capital returns and valuation. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  16. ReportedAt $9.32 a year the shares yield about 3.2%, and the dividend has been paid through every year of the flat run.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 1 business and Item 2 properties: stores, Pros, SRS, competition and supply chain. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026