⚠ Comparable Sales Below 2% Since Fiscal 2022Moderate threat

Home Depot (HD) — threat to the moat

Home Depot has not had a year of comparable sales above 2% since fiscal 2022, and its own outlook expects a flat market.

Home Depot has not produced a comparable-sales year above 2% since fiscal 2022. The figures were 3.1% in fiscal 2022, then -3.2%, -1.8% and 0.3%12. Five straight quarters from mid-2025 were between 0.2% and 1.7%34567.

Fiscal 2026 outlook (%)-1%Market low+1%Market high+2.0%Comps guide high+4-5%Recovery case compsHome Depot investor conference release, December 2025; signs shown in labels
Guidance sits well below the recovery case.

Guidance for fiscal 2026 is comparable sales of approximately flat to 2.0%8, and the company's preliminary outlook put the whole home improvement market in a range between -1% to +1%9.

The stores are keeping share in a flat market rather than growing. A flat market with rising costs is how the operating margin fell.

The contrast with the boom years is stark. Comparable sales rose 19.7% in fiscal 2020 and 11.4% in fiscal 20211011, pulling forward years of projects. Part of the flat run since is the hangover from that pull-forward, which is why the company calls the demand it expects to return pent-up12.

The number that would falsify the concern is a quarter of comparable sales above 3%. The company's own Market Recovery Case assumes comparable sales of 4% to 5%13; until results approach that, the recovery is a forecast.

References
  1. ReportedThe figures were 3.1% in fiscal 2022, then -3.2%, -1.8% and 0.3%.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - comparable sales, transactions and ticket for fiscal 2021-2023, ROIC of 36.7%, 44.6% and 44.7%, and stockholders' equity including the deficit of January 2022. — Fiscal 2023 · publ. March 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe figures were 3.1% in fiscal 2022, then -3.2%, -1.8% and 0.3%.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 1 business and Item 2 properties: stores, Pros, SRS, competition and supply chain. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedFive straight quarters from mid-2025 were between 0.2% and 1.7%.
    The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - comparable sales of 1.0%. — Q2 fiscal 2025 · publ. 19 August 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedFive straight quarters from mid-2025 were between 0.2% and 1.7%.
    The Home Depot third-quarter fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - comparable sales of 0.2%. — Q3 fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 November 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFive straight quarters from mid-2025 were between 0.2% and 1.7%.
    The Home Depot fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fiscal 2026 guidance, the dividend raised to $2.33 a quarter, adjusted EPS of $14.69. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedFive straight quarters from mid-2025 were between 0.2% and 1.7%.
    The Home Depot first-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 fiscal 2026 · publ. 19 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedFive straight quarters from mid-2025 were between 0.2% and 1.7%.
    The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales, comparable sales, transactions, ticket, earnings, reaffirmed guidance and the balance sheet. — Q2 fiscal 2026 · publ. 18 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedGuidance for fiscal 2026 is comparable sales of approximately flat to 2.0%, and the company's preliminary outlook put the whole home improvement market in a range between -1% to +1%.
    The Home Depot fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - fiscal 2026 guidance, the dividend raised to $2.33 a quarter, adjusted EPS of $14.69. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedGuidance for fiscal 2026 is comparable sales of approximately flat to 2.0%, and the company's preliminary outlook put the whole home improvement market in a range between -1% to +1%.
    The Home Depot Investor and Analyst Conference release: preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, a home improvement market of -1% to +1%, an approximately $1.1 trillion addressable market and the Market Recovery Case. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedComparable sales rose 19.7% in fiscal 2020 and 11.4% in fiscal 2021, pulling forward years of projects.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - the HD Supply acquisition (total consideration $8,692 million) and comparable sales of 19.7%. — Fiscal 2020 · publ. March 2021 · source ↗
  11. ReportedComparable sales rose 19.7% in fiscal 2020 and 11.4% in fiscal 2021, pulling forward years of projects.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - comparable sales, transactions and ticket for fiscal 2021-2023, ROIC of 36.7%, 44.6% and 44.7%, and stockholders' equity including the deficit of January 2022. — Fiscal 2023 · publ. March 2024 · source ↗
  12. ReportedPart of the flat run since is the hangover from that pull-forward, which is why the company calls the demand it expects to return pent-up.
    The Home Depot Investor and Analyst Conference release: preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, a home improvement market of -1% to +1%, an approximately $1.1 trillion addressable market and the Market Recovery Case. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe company's own Market Recovery Case assumes comparable sales of 4% to 5%; until results approach that, the recovery is a forecast.
    The Home Depot Investor and Analyst Conference release: preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook, a home improvement market of -1% to +1%, an approximately $1.1 trillion addressable market and the Market Recovery Case. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026