⚠ 1.6 Billion Transactions, Fewer Than in Fiscal 2021Moderate threat

Home Depot (HD) — threat to the moat

Home Depot's customers made fewer trips in fiscal 2025 than in fiscal 2021, and only 7% more than a decade earlier.

1. ReportedHome Depot's customers made 1,601.5 million transactions in fiscal 2025.
   The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 7 MD&A: segments, comparable sales, transactions, product lines, margins and ROIC. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
2. ReportedIn fiscal 2015 they made 1,500.8 million, and in fiscal 2021 1,759.7 million.
   The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2017 - net sales, earnings, dividends and ROIC for fiscal 2015-2017, transactions of 1,500.8 million and average ticket of $58.77 in fiscal 2015, and the 55% dividend payout target. — Fiscal 2017 · publ. March 2018 · source ↗
3. ReportedIn fiscal 2015 they made 1,500.8 million, and in fiscal 2021 1,759.7 million.
   The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - comparable sales, transactions and ticket for fiscal 2021-2023, ROIC of 36.7%, 44.6% and 44.7%, and stockholders' equity including the deficit of January 2022. — Fiscal 2023 · publ. March 2024 · source ↗
4. Moat Explorer calcTen years produced about 7% more trips, and the pandemic surge has been given back: fiscal 2025 traffic was about 9% below fiscal 2021.
   Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - segments, sales, traffic and margins. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
5. Moat Explorer calcTen years produced about 7% more trips, and the pandemic surge has been given back: fiscal 2025 traffic was about 9% below fiscal 2021.
   Moat Explorer calculation from The Home Depot's filings and market data ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years as Home Depot names them, fiscal 2025 = year to 1 February 2026). Segments: Primary net sales 151,966 / 152,669 - 1 = -0.5% (fiscal 2023 to 2025); Primary operating income 20,574 / 21,689 - 1 = -5.1%; Primary operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2% (fiscal 2023), 21,313 / 153,108 = 13.9% (fiscal 2024), 20,574 / 151,966 = 13.5% (fiscal 2025); Other operating margin 213 / 6,406 = 3.3% (fiscal 2024), 316 / 12,717 = 2.5% (fiscal 2025); Other before intangible amortisation 316 + 398 = 714, 714 / 12,717 = 5.6%; Other share of net sales 12,717 / 164,683 = 7.7%; Other share of operating income 316 / 20,890 = 1.5%. Q2 fiscal 2026: Primary 42,806 / 42,157 - 1 = +1.5%, margin 6,592 / 42,806 = 15.4%; Other 5,055 / 3,120 - 1 = +62%, margin 247 / 5,055 = 4.9%; Q2 fiscal 2025 margins: Primary 6,354 / 42,157 = 15.1%, Other 201 / 3,120 = 6.4%; Q1 fiscal 2026 Primary 80,569 - 42,806 = 37,763 and 11,557 - 6,592 = 4,965, margin 13.1%; Other 9,057 - 5,055 = 4,002 and 263 - 247 = 16, margin 0.4%. Pro acquisitions 8,692 + 18,028 + 5,081 + about 1,100 = about 32,900 (HD Supply, SRS, GMS, Mingledorff's). Growth: net sales 164,683 - 159,514 = 5,169 in fiscal 2025 against about 6,300 contributed by acquisitions; fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2023 164,683 - 152,669 = 12,014, of which Other 12,717. Net sales fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2025 164,683 / 100,904 - 1 = +63%; stores 2,359 - 2,284 = 75, 75 / 2,284 = +3.3%. Traffic: transactions 1,601.5 / 1,500.8 - 1 = +6.7% (fiscal 2015 to 2025); 1,601.5 / 1,759.7 - 1 = -9.0% (fiscal 2021 to 2025); average ticket 90.56 / 58.77 - 1 = +54%. Net sales per store 164,683 / 2,359 is not meaningful because Other has no stores; Primary 151,966 / 2,359 = 64.4 per store. Margins: operating margin 21,689 / 152,669 = 14.2%, 21,526 / 159,514 = 13.5%, 20,890 / 164,683 = 12.7%; SG&A 30,702 / 28,748 - 1 = +6.8% against net sales +3.2%; Primary SG&A 28,885 / 27,822 - 1 = +3.8% against Primary net sales 151,966 / 153,108 - 1 = -0.7%; interest expense 2,412 / 1,943 - 1 = +24%; operating income / interest 20,890 / 2,412 = 8.7 times. Departments: Lighting 4,006 / 4,549 - 1 = -11.9%; Flooring 8,232 / 8,703 - 1 = -5.4%; Storage and Organization 5,054 / 4,881 - 1 = +3.5%; Appliances 13,987 / 164,683 = 8.5%. Classes fiscal 2025: 52,439 + 51,679 + 47,848 = 151,966 = Primary net sales. Net margin 14,156 / 164,683 = 8.6%; Lowe's 6.63 / 90.43 = 7.3%; Lowe's price to sales 106.20 / 90.43 = 1.17 against 1.73; Primary share 151,966 / 164,683 = 92.3%; cost of sales 164,683 - 54,865 = 109,818. Primary share Q2 fiscal 2026 42,806 / 47,861 = 89.4%; H1 net sales increase 89.6 - 85.1 = 4.5bn, GMS 2.8 / 4.5 = 62%; average ticket 89.31 / 90.36 - 1 = -1.2%; equity build 14,156 - 9,152 = 5,004; buyback authorization 11.66 / 292.52 = 4.0% of market value; depreciation and amortisation as a share of sales, Other 715 / 12,717 = 5.6%, Primary 3,344 / 151,966 = 2.2%. US share 152,170 / 164,683 = 92.4%. Mexico stores 2,359 - 2,035 - 182 = 142. Other share of net sales 6,406 / 159,514 = 4.0% (fiscal 2024), 5,055 / 47,861 = 10.6% (Q2 fiscal 2026). Sales per retail square foot 627.17 / 454.82 - 1 = +38% (fiscal 2019 to 2022), 599.92 / 627.17 - 1 = -4.3% (fiscal 2022 to 2024). Tariff refunds 685 / 47,861 = 1.4% of Q2 net sales; 685 / 16,115 = 4.3% of Q2 gross profit; refunds in inventory cost 730 - 685 = about 45. Receivables 5,597 / 4,903 - 1 = +14.2%. Capital: net debt 4,464 + 4,967 + 46,341 - 1,389 = 54,383 (1 February 2026); 316 + 4,582 + 48,485 - 1,659 = 51,724 (2 February 2025); 4,248 + 4,697 + 43,951 - 2,085 = 50,811 (2 August 2026); net debt / equity 54,383 / 12,813 = 4.2 times; goodwill and intangibles 22,344 + 10,329 = 32,673, 32,673 / 105,095 = 31.1% of total assets. Free cash flow 16,325 - 3,679 = 12,646 (fiscal 2025), 19,810 - 3,485 = 16,325 (fiscal 2024), 21,172 - 3,226 = 17,946 (fiscal 2023); dividends paid / free cash flow 9,152 / 12,646 = 72.4%; dividend per share / diluted EPS 9.20 / 14.23 = 64.7%; capex / net sales 3,679 / 164,683 = 2.2%. Average debt and equity 61,914 / 44,955 - 1 = +38%; SRS + GMS 18,028 + 5,081 = 23,109; interest expense 2,412 - 1,943 = 469; operating cash flow / dividends paid 16,325 / 9,152 = 1.8 times; free cash flow 12,646 / 17,946 - 1 = -30%; dividend per share 9.00 / 8.36 - 1 = +7.7%, 9.20 / 9.00 - 1 = +2.2%, 2.33 / 2.30 - 1 = +1.3%. Repurchases fiscal 2015-2023: 7,000 + 7,000 + 8,002 + 10,000 + 7,000 + 597 + 15,001 + 6,504 + 8,074 = 69,178; diluted shares 995 / 1,283 - 1 = -22%. H1 fiscal 2026 EPS 8.09 / 14.23 = 57%. Market: 292.52 / 14.26 = 20.5 times trailing earnings; 292.52 / 169.18 = 1.73 times sales; 292.52 / 433.37 - 1 = -32.5% from the end-2021 value; Lowe's 106.20 / 292.52 = 36%, 90.43 / 169.18 = 53% of revenue; dividend yield 9.32 / 293.20 = 3.2%; trailing diluted EPS 14.23 + 8.09 - (3.45 + 4.58) = 14.29; trailing net income 292.52 / 20.52 = about 14.26bn - segments, sales, traffic and margins. — Fiscal 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in The Home Depot's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
6. ReportedComparable transactions fell in each of the last four fiscal years: 5.4% in fiscal 2022, 2.9% in fiscal 2023, 1.0% in fiscal 2024 and 1.0% in fiscal 2025.
   The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - comparable sales, transactions and ticket for fiscal 2021-2023, ROIC of 36.7%, 44.6% and 44.7%, and stockholders' equity including the deficit of January 2022. — Fiscal 2023 · publ. March 2024 · source ↗
7. ReportedComparable transactions fell in each of the last four fiscal years: 5.4% in fiscal 2022, 2.9% in fiscal 2023, 1.0% in fiscal 2024 and 1.0% in fiscal 2025.
   The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (the 52 weeks ended 1 February 2026) - Item 7 MD&A: segments, comparable sales, transactions, product lines, margins and ROIC. — Fiscal 2025 · publ. 18 March 2026 · source ↗
8. ReportedThey fell again by 1.0% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.
   The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales, comparable sales, transactions, ticket, earnings, reaffirmed guidance and the balance sheet. — Q2 fiscal 2026 · publ. 18 August 2026 · source ↗
9. ReportedAll the growth has come from the size of each basket, which is partly inflation and partly price increases, as the company's merchandising chief said of the fourth quarter.
   CNBC on Home Depot's fourth quarter of fiscal 2025: shingle shipments down 28%, repair rather than replace, tariffs, and no single foreign country above 10% of purchases. — Q4 fiscal 2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
10. ReportedComparable transactions fell 1.6% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 while the average ticket rose 2.4%, and fell 1.0% again in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.
    CNBC on Home Depot's fourth quarter of fiscal 2025: shingle shipments down 28%, repair rather than replace, tariffs, and no single foreign country above 10% of purchases. — Q4 fiscal 2025 · publ. 24 February 2026 · source ↗
11. ReportedComparable transactions fell 1.6% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 while the average ticket rose 2.4%, and fell 1.0% again in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.
    The Home Depot second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - sales, comparable sales, transactions, ticket, earnings, reaffirmed guidance and the balance sheet. — Q2 fiscal 2026 · publ. 18 August 2026 · source ↗
12. ReportedEven the pandemic's extra trips have not been kept: fiscal 2025's count is below fiscal 2019's 1,616.0 million.
    The Home Depot Form 10-K for fiscal 2019 - net sales and earnings for fiscal 2017-2019 and ROIC of 45.4%. — Fiscal 2019 · publ. March 2020 · source ↗

• Home Depot Form 10-K, fiscal 2025