⚠ The Dividends Fell a Quarter in Two YearsModerate threat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — threat to the moat

The steadiest cash in Mitsui's energy business is shrinking with the oil price.

The four dividend projects paid ¥92.0 billion two years ago and ¥69.2 billion in the latest year1, a fall of about 25%. The company attributes much of its energy decline to lower prices and to the time lag in oil-linked contracts2.

Sakhalin II carrying value (¥ bn, March)65.0202558.82026Mitsui results, May 2026
The Russian stake is marked lower each year.

One of the four is Sakhalin II, where Mitsui's 12.5% stake3 is exposed to high geopolitical risk by the company's own description4. Its value on the balance sheet fell from ¥65.0 billion to ¥58.8 billion in the latest year5.

These dividends are some of the steadiest cash in the business, and they are falling.

The Russian stake has been kept rather than sold, and it is carried at a value that has fallen, to ¥58.8 billion6. The dividend it contributes is part of the ¥69.2 billion total7.

The measure is the dividend total. Below ¥60 billion would say the old projects can no longer be relied on to fund the new ones.

References
  1. ReportedThe four dividend projects paid ¥92.0 billion two years ago and ¥69.2 billion in the latest year, a fall of about 25%.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe company attributes much of its energy decline to lower prices and to the time lag in oil-linked contracts.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOne of the four is Sakhalin II, where Mitsui's 12.5% stake is exposed to high geopolitical risk by the company's own description.
    Mitsui & Co., results presentation for the year to March 2026 - producing assets with partners and stakes, LNG projects, affiliates and power contracts. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedOne of the four is Sakhalin II, where Mitsui's 12.5% stake is exposed to high geopolitical risk by the company's own description.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the JA Mitsui Leasing and Mainstream losses, the Russian LNG exposure, the Strait of Hormuz and the sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIts value on the balance sheet fell from ¥65.0 billion to ¥58.8 billion in the latest year.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe Russian stake has been kept rather than sold, and it is carried at a value that has fallen, to ¥58.8 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the JA Mitsui Leasing and Mainstream losses, the Russian LNG exposure, the Strait of Hormuz and the sensitivities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe dividend it contributes is part of the ¥69.2 billion total.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026