⚠ ROE Has Fallen Three Years RunningModerate threat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — threat to the moat

Mitsui's return on equity has almost halved in three years as the balance sheet grew.

Mitsui's return on equity has fallen every year since the year to March 2023: 18.9%, 15.3%, 11.9% and 10.2%1. Profit fell from ¥1,130.6 billion to ¥834.0 billion over the same period2, while shareholders' equity rose to ¥8,767.7 billion3.

ROE (%, years to March)18.9202315.3202411.9202510.22026Mitsui Integrated Report 2026
Down every year from the peak.

Part of that is the commodity cycle: the peak years had high iron ore and energy prices. Part is the balance sheet: equity grows with retained profit and currency gains on foreign assets, and the company invested ¥1,380.0 billion in the latest year4, much of it in Rhodes Ridge, which will not produce until 2030.

An analyst at the results meeting asked how the company would reach its 12% target when it appeared to reach only the low 11% range5.

Return on assets tells the same story: 7.5% in the year to March 2023, 6.6% in 2024, 5.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 20266. Total assets grew by about ¥4.0 trillion in the latest year, including ¥857.1 billion of property, plant and equipment for Rhodes Ridge and ¥546.6 billion of higher fair values on listed shares7.

The measure is ROE in the current year. The forecast of ¥920 billion of profit8 on higher equity implies a return close to 10.5%; below 10% would mean the investment programme is outrunning the returns.

References
  1. ReportedMitsui's return on equity has fallen every year since the year to March 2023: 18.9%, 15.3%, 11.9% and 10.2%.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedProfit fell from ¥1,130.6 billion to ¥834.0 billion over the same period, while shareholders' equity rose to ¥8,767.7 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedProfit fell from ¥1,130.6 billion to ¥834.0 billion over the same period, while shareholders' equity rose to ¥8,767.7 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedPart is the balance sheet: equity grows with retained profit and currency gains on foreign assets, and the company invested ¥1,380.0 billion in the latest year, much of it in Rhodes Ridge, which will not produce until 2030.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAn analyst at the results meeting asked how the company would reach its 12% target when it appeared to reach only the low 11% range.
    Mitsui & Co., Q&A of the results meeting for the year to March 2026 - the Management Allocation, the 2030 vision and an analyst's question on the ROE target. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedReturn on assets tells the same story: 7.5% in the year to March 2023, 6.6% in 2024, 5.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedTotal assets grew by about ¥4.0 trillion in the latest year, including ¥857.1 billion of property, plant and equipment for Rhodes Ridge and ¥546.6 billion of higher fair values on listed shares.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe forecast of ¥920 billion of profit on higher equity implies a return close to 10.5%; below 10% would mean the investment programme is outrunning the returns.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026