LNG: Eight Million Tonnes, Going to FifteenNarrow moat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — moat facet

Mitsui's LNG positions are old, contracted and hard to copy, and they earn less on their assets than its iron ore.

Mitsui is a partner in eleven LNG projects in eight countries, with an equity share of production capacity of 8 million tonnes a year in the latest year and a plan for more than 15 million tonnes after 20301. It also trades 12 million tonnes a year on its own account2. The LNG business earned approximately ¥135 billion in the latest year3.

Equity LNG production capacity (Mt a year)8Year to Mar 202615+Beyond 2030Mitsui Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge
A plan to nearly double equity LNG capacity.

The oldest of these positions go back a long way. Mitsui signed the basic agreement on LNG development at Das Island in Abu Dhabi in September 1971, a project now known as ADNOC LNG4, where it holds 15% of 6.0 million tonnes of capacity5. It holds 1.5% of QatarEnergy LNG N(3), 2.77% of Oman LNG, 12.5% of Sakhalin II and 16.6% of Cameron LNG in the United States6.

LNG is a better business than iron ore in one respect: much of it is sold on long-term contracts, and the dividends from the older projects arrive steadily. Dividends from the four largest, Sakhalin II, Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar, were ¥92.0 billion in the year to March 2024, ¥84.9 billion in 2025 and ¥69.2 billion in 20267.

It is a worse business in another. The Energy segment earned ¥164.2 billion on ¥4,181.4 billion of assets, a return of 3.9%89, lower than the resources segment, and its profit has fallen from ¥281.7 billion two years ago1011. The segment also carries Mitsui's two Russian projects.

The US gas business adds a different kind of exposure. Mitsui's share of the Marcellus development, 11% of a field producing 3,655 million cubic feet a day gross12, gives it gas priced in the United States rather than on oil. Together with Cameron LNG, that makes the American part of the energy business a hedge against the oil-linked contracts elsewhere.

The moat is narrow: long-dated positions in projects that are expensive and slow to build, which rivals cannot easily replicate. The measure is equity production capacity. Moving from 8 million tonnes toward 15 million13 depends on Mozambique and Ruwais being built on time.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Mozambique restarted and the equity capacity target nearly doubles.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Energy segment net profit, latest year
¥164.2bn against ¥281.7bn two years earlier

The segment's earnings on ¥4.2 trillion of assets; recovery depends on new LNG capacity and prices.

Source: Mitsui & Co. results, year to March 2026 ↗
Aspects of the moat
DIG DEEPER 01
The Dividend Projects: Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Oman and Sakhalin
Mitsui's oldest LNG positions are small shareholdings that still pay about ¥70 billion a year.
DIG DEEPER 02
Cameron and the Marcellus: The American Gas Link
Mitsui's American LNG link is gas it owns, a plant it co-owns and a price set in the United States.
DIG DEEPER 03
The Trading Book: Twelve Million Tonnes
Mitsui trades half again as much LNG as it produces, through a Singapore subsidiary that books a tenth of its revenue.
DIG DEEPER 04
Oil and Gas Production: 211 Thousand Barrels a Day
Mitsui's oil and gas fields produce steadily and have been written down in two countries.
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Energy Earns Less on More Assets
Mitsui's energy segment has lost more than two-fifths of its profit in two years and earns under 4% on its assets.
⚠ THREAT 02
The Transition Timeline
Mitsui's LNG growth assumes Asia's buyers will sign long contracts through the energy transition.
References
  1. ReportedMitsui is a partner in eleven LNG projects in eight countries, with an equity share of production capacity of 8 million tonnes a year in the latest year and a plan for more than 15 million tonnes after 2030.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt also trades 12 million tonnes a year on its own account.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe LNG business earned approximately ¥135 billion in the latest year.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedMitsui signed the basic agreement on LNG development at Das Island in Abu Dhabi in September 1971, a project now known as ADNOC LNG, where it holds 15% of 6.0 million tonnes of capacity.
    Mitsui & Co., Annual Securities Report for the year to March 2026 (English) - company history, employees, share price history, total shareholder return, equity production, the revenue of the Singapore trading subsidiary, competition and the Arctic LNG 2 guarantees. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMitsui signed the basic agreement on LNG development at Das Island in Abu Dhabi in September 1971, a project now known as ADNOC LNG, where it holds 15% of 6.0 million tonnes of capacity.
    Mitsui & Co., results presentation for the year to March 2026 - producing assets with partners and stakes, LNG projects, affiliates and power contracts. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt holds 1.5% of QatarEnergy LNG N(3), 2.77% of Oman LNG, 12.5% of Sakhalin II and 16.6% of Cameron LNG in the United States.
    Mitsui & Co., results presentation for the year to March 2026 - producing assets with partners and stakes, LNG projects, affiliates and power contracts. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedDividends from the four largest, Sakhalin II, Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar, were ¥92.0 billion in the year to March 2024, ¥84.9 billion in 2025 and ¥69.2 billion in 2026.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe Energy segment earned ¥164.2 billion on ¥4,181.4 billion of assets, a return of 3.9%, lower than the resources segment, and its profit has fallen from ¥281.7 billion two years ago.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcThe Energy segment earned ¥164.2 billion on ¥4,181.4 billion of assets, a return of 3.9%, lower than the resources segment, and its profit has fallen from ¥281.7 billion two years ago.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  10. ReportedThe Energy segment earned ¥164.2 billion on ¥4,181.4 billion of assets, a return of 3.9%, lower than the resources segment, and its profit has fallen from ¥281.7 billion two years ago.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2025 (IFRS) - including segment information for the years to March 2025 and 2024. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe Energy segment earned ¥164.2 billion on ¥4,181.4 billion of assets, a return of 3.9%, lower than the resources segment, and its profit has fallen from ¥281.7 billion two years ago.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedMitsui's share of the Marcellus development, 11% of a field producing 3,655 million cubic feet a day gross, gives it gas priced in the United States rather than on oil.
    Mitsui & Co., results presentation for the year to March 2026 - producing assets with partners and stakes, LNG projects, affiliates and power contracts. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedMoving from 8 million tonnes toward 15 million depends on Mozambique and Ruwais being built on time.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026