⚠ An Analyst Doubts the 12%Moderate threat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — threat to the moat

Mitsui's own shareholders question whether its 12% return target adds up.

At the results meeting in May 2026 an analyst asked Mitsui directly about its ROE target of 12% for the year to March 2029: on the analyst's own numbers it appeared to reach only the low 11% range1.

ROE (%)12.5MTMP2026 average10.2Year to Mar 202612.0Year to Mar 2029 targetMitsui MTMP2029 presentation and Integrated Report 2026
The last plan met its average; the latest year did not.

The question matters because the plan's profit target of ¥1.1 trillion2 has to be reached on a larger balance sheet. If equity grows with retained earnings and foreign currency gains, profit has to grow faster still.

Mitsui's answer is to recycle more assets and buy back shares. Both reduce equity; neither is guaranteed.

The measure is ROE in the current year. Anything below 11% would support the analyst's view.

References
  1. ReportedAt the results meeting in May 2026 an analyst asked Mitsui directly about its ROE target of 12% for the year to March 2029: on the analyst's own numbers it appeared to reach only the low 11% range.
    Mitsui & Co., Q&A of the results meeting for the year to March 2026 - the Management Allocation, the 2030 vision and an analyst's question on the ROE target. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe question matters because the plan's profit target of ¥1.1 trillion has to be reached on a larger balance sheet.
    Mitsui & Co., notice of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029 - core operating cash flow of ¥1.2 trillion, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and ROE of 12%, and the dividend floor of ¥140. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026