✦ Rhodes Ridge and the Road to 100 Million TonnesNarrow moat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — the future bets

Mitsui paid $5.3 billion for iron ore it will not dig up until about 2030, to reach 100 million tonnes a year.

In February 2025 Mitsui agreed to acquire 40% of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project in Western Australia, in two transactions totalling $5,342 million, approximately ¥800 billion1. The deposit has 6.8 billion tonnes of mineral resources, one of the largest undeveloped iron ore deposits in the world, and is operated by Rio Tinto2. Mitsui expects its equity share to be about 16 million tonnes at the initial production stage and more than 40 million after expansion3.

Equity iron ore production (Mt a year, years to March)642026652029732031902036100+FutureMitsui Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge
Flat until Rhodes Ridge, then a steep climb.

The acquisition is the largest single reason Mitsui's balance sheet grew in the latest year: property, plant and equipment rose by ¥857.1 billion for Rhodes Ridge alone4, and free cash flow turned negative5.

It is also the core of Mitsui's iron ore growth plan: equity production of 64 million tonnes in the latest year, 65 million by the year to March 2029, 73 million by 2031, 90 million by 2036 and more than 100 million in the future6.

The measure is first ore. The plan assumes it around 20307; a delay would leave ¥800 billion earning nothing for longer.

Moat trajectory: Widening

The equity production path rises from 64 to more than 100 million tonnes.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Equity iron ore production path
64 Mt now, 73 Mt by the year to March 2031, 90 Mt by 2036

Rhodes Ridge carries the growth; watch first ore against the 2030 plan.

Source: Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge ↗
References
  1. ReportedIn February 2025 Mitsui agreed to acquire 40% of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project in Western Australia, in two transactions totalling $5,342 million, approximately ¥800 billion.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 19 February 2025 - acquisition of a 40% interest in the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project for $5,342 million. — February 2025 · publ. 19 February 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe deposit has 6.8 billion tonnes of mineral resources, one of the largest undeveloped iron ore deposits in the world, and is operated by Rio Tinto.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 19 February 2025 - acquisition of a 40% interest in the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project for $5,342 million. — February 2025 · publ. 19 February 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedMitsui expects its equity share to be about 16 million tonnes at the initial production stage and more than 40 million after expansion.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 19 February 2025 - acquisition of a 40% interest in the Rhodes Ridge iron ore project for $5,342 million. — February 2025 · publ. 19 February 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe acquisition is the largest single reason Mitsui's balance sheet grew in the latest year: property, plant and equipment rose by ¥857.1 billion for Rhodes Ridge alone, and free cash flow turned negative.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe acquisition is the largest single reason Mitsui's balance sheet grew in the latest year: property, plant and equipment rose by ¥857.1 billion for Rhodes Ridge alone, and free cash flow turned negative.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt is also the core of Mitsui's iron ore growth plan: equity production of 64 million tonnes in the latest year, 65 million by the year to March 2029, 73 million by 2031, 90 million by 2036 and more than 100 million in the future.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe plan assumes it around 2030; a delay would leave ¥800 billion earning nothing for longer.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, Our Edge - profit of the iron ore, LNG, mobility and protein and healthcare businesses, the iron ore and LNG growth paths, IHH's hospitals and market positions. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026