Buybacks and a ¥140 FloorNarrow moat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — moat facet

Mitsui has bought back an eighth of its shares in four years and will not pay less than ¥140 a share.

Mitsui has shrunk its share count and raised its dividend steadily. Split-adjusted, shares issued fell from about 3,284.7 million in March 2022 to 2,864.7 million in March 2026, a reduction of 12.8%12. Over its last plan it bought back ¥720 billion of shares against a target of ¥70 billion3.

Dividend per share, split-adjusted (¥, years to March)27.5201740202070202311520261402027 floorMitsui shareholder return history; MTMP2029
Quadrupled in nine years, with a floor above the latest figure.

The dividend per share, adjusted for the 2024 split, was ¥27.5 in the year to March 2017 after a cut that followed the loss year, and ¥115 in the year to March 20264, 4.2 times as much5. The new plan sets a minimum of ¥1406, and in August 2026 the company raised its commitment to return over 50% of three-year core operating cash flow to shareholders7. It also announced a new buyback of up to ¥200 billion8.

Returns of this size are what persuaded long-term investors, including Berkshire Hathaway, to buy. They are also a claim on cash that competes with the investment programme.

The buyback record is long. Mitsui bought back ¥50.0 billion in 2014 and in several years since, then ¥240.0 billion between November 2022 and July 2023 and ¥400.0 billion between May 2024 and February 20259. By 31 August 2026 it had bought 2,276,700 shares for ¥11.2 billion under the new ¥200 billion programme10.

The measure is total returns against core operating cash flow. Over 50% is the commitment; the latest year's free cash flow was negative11.

Moat trajectory: Widening

The payout commitment rose to over 50% of core operating cash flow.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Dividend per share, latest year
¥115, with a ¥140 floor for the current year

A progressive dividend since the 2017 cut; the floor commits the plan.

Source: Mitsui & Co. shareholder return history ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Returns Compete With a ¥2.4 Trillion Plan
Mitsui has promised shareholders half its cash flow and has plans to invest more than the other half.
References
  1. ReportedSplit-adjusted, shares issued fell from about 3,284.7 million in March 2022 to 2,864.7 million in March 2026, a reduction of 12.8%.
    Mitsui & Co., share information - shares issued and number of shareholders. — 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcSplit-adjusted, shares issued fell from about 3,284.7 million in March 2022 to 2,864.7 million in March 2026, a reduction of 12.8%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedOver its last plan it bought back ¥720 billion of shares against a target of ¥70 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe dividend per share, adjusted for the 2024 split, was ¥27.5 in the year to March 2017 after a cut that followed the loss year, and ¥115 in the year to March 2026, 4.2 times as much.
    Mitsui & Co., shareholder returns page - dividend and share buyback history. — 2014-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThe dividend per share, adjusted for the 2024 split, was ¥27.5 in the year to March 2017 after a cut that followed the loss year, and ¥115 in the year to March 2026, 4.2 times as much.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedThe new plan sets a minimum of ¥140, and in August 2026 the company raised its commitment to return over 50% of three-year core operating cash flow to shareholders.
    Mitsui & Co., notice of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029 - core operating cash flow of ¥1.2 trillion, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and ROE of 12%, and the dividend floor of ¥140. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe new plan sets a minimum of ¥140, and in August 2026 the company raised its commitment to return over 50% of three-year core operating cash flow to shareholders.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (IFRS) - revenue, profit, segment results on the new basis, core operating cash flow and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIt also announced a new buyback of up to ¥200 billion.
    Mitsui & Co. release, 4 August 2026 - share buyback of up to ¥200 billion and 60 million shares. — August 2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedMitsui bought back ¥50.0 billion in 2014 and in several years since, then ¥240.0 billion between November 2022 and July 2023 and ¥400.0 billion between May 2024 and February 2025.
    Mitsui & Co., shareholder returns page - dividend and share buyback history. — 2014-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedBy 31 August 2026 it had bought 2,276,700 shares for ¥11.2 billion under the new ¥200 billion programme.
    Mitsui & Co., shareholder returns page - dividend and share buyback history. — 2014-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedOver 50% is the commitment; the latest year's free cash flow was negative.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026