An Investor's DisciplineNarrow moat

Mitsui & Co. (8031) — moat facet

Mitsui runs itself like an investment portfolio with a 10% hurdle, and its return on equity has fallen three years running.

What distinguishes Mitsui as much as any single asset is how it manages the portfolio. Most of its profit comes from companies it does not control: in the latest year equity-method profit of ¥447.4 billion and dividend income of ¥178.7 billion together came to ¥626.1 billion, 57.6% of profit before tax123. It received ¥550.6 billion of cash dividends from those investments4.

Return on equity (%, years to March)18.0202218.9202315.3202411.9202510.2202612.02029 targetMitsui Integrated Report 2026 and MTMP2029
Three years of decline toward a target set higher.

An investor is judged on what it buys and sells. Mitsui applies an IRR of 10% or higher as a minimum standard across the company, with higher hurdles for riskier projects5, and it reviews a portfolio of 1,080 projects with a book value of ¥10.2 trillion6. Over its last three-year plan it recycled ¥1,481 billion of assets against a target of ¥870 billion, and decided ¥2,412 billion of new investments against a target of ¥1,170 billion7.

The returns went to shareholders as well as to new projects. Over the same three years Mitsui bought back ¥720 billion of shares and paid ¥879 billion of dividends8, and its shares issued fell 12.8% between March 2022 and March 2026 on a split-adjusted basis910. The dividend per share rose from ¥27.5 in the year to March 2017 to ¥115 in 202611, and the new plan sets a floor of ¥14012.

The discipline has limits that the return on equity shows. ROE was 18.9% in the year to March 2023, 15.3% in 2024, 11.9% in 2025 and 10.2% in 202613. The company achieved an average of 12.5% over its last plan against a target of above 12%14, and its new plan aims for 12% again by the year to March 202915.

The company's own measure of cash generation is core operating cash flow: ¥1,205.5 billion in the year to March 2023, ¥995.8 billion in 2024, ¥1,027.5 billion in 2025 and ¥978.9 billion in 202616. It totalled ¥3,002 billion over the last plan17, and the company returned more than 53% of it to shareholders18.

The advantage is narrow: a process that rivals also run, applied consistently. The measure is return on equity against the 12% target; the latest year's 10.2% is below it.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

ROE fell from 18.9% to 10.2% as equity grew and profit fell.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Return on equity, latest year
10.2% against 11.9% a year earlier

The plan targets 12% by the year to March 2029; the trend is the other way.

Source: Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data ↗
Aspects of the moat
DIG DEEPER 01
A 10% Hurdle Across 1,080 Projects
Mitsui holds its new investments to a 10% return and reviews more than a thousand projects against it.
DIG DEEPER 02
Selling What It Built
Mitsui sold nearly twice as much as it planned in its last three years, which is how an investor keeps its portfolio honest.
DIG DEEPER 03
Buybacks and a ¥140 Floor
Mitsui has bought back an eighth of its shares in four years and will not pay less than ¥140 a share.
DIG DEEPER 04
Base Profit, Built ¥52 Billion a Year
Beneath the commodity swings, Mitsui adds about ¥50-65 billion of steady profit a year.
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
ROE Has Fallen Three Years Running
Mitsui's return on equity has almost halved in three years as the balance sheet grew.
⚠ THREAT 02
Free Cash Flow Turned Negative
Rhodes Ridge turned Mitsui's free cash flow negative for a year and pushed debt up.
References
  1. ReportedMost of its profit comes from companies it does not control: in the latest year equity-method profit of ¥447.4 billion and dividend income of ¥178.7 billion together came to ¥626.1 billion, 57.6% of profit before tax.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2025 (IFRS) - including segment information for the years to March 2025 and 2024. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedMost of its profit comes from companies it does not control: in the latest year equity-method profit of ¥447.4 billion and dividend income of ¥178.7 billion together came to ¥626.1 billion, 57.6% of profit before tax.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcMost of its profit comes from companies it does not control: in the latest year equity-method profit of ¥447.4 billion and dividend income of ¥178.7 billion together came to ¥626.1 billion, 57.6% of profit before tax.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedIt received ¥550.6 billion of cash dividends from those investments.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMitsui applies an IRR of 10% or higher as a minimum standard across the company, with higher hurdles for riskier projects, and it reviews a portfolio of 1,080 projects with a book value of ¥10.2 trillion.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, financial and portfolio strategy - the 10% IRR minimum and the review of 1,080 projects. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedMitsui applies an IRR of 10% or higher as a minimum standard across the company, with higher hurdles for riskier projects, and it reviews a portfolio of 1,080 projects with a book value of ¥10.2 trillion.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, financial and portfolio strategy - the 10% IRR minimum and the review of 1,080 projects. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedOver its last three-year plan it recycled ¥1,481 billion of assets against a target of ¥870 billion, and decided ¥2,412 billion of new investments against a target of ¥1,170 billion.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOver the same three years Mitsui bought back ¥720 billion of shares and paid ¥879 billion of dividends, and its shares issued fell 12.8% between March 2022 and March 2026 on a split-adjusted basis.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedOver the same three years Mitsui bought back ¥720 billion of shares and paid ¥879 billion of dividends, and its shares issued fell 12.8% between March 2022 and March 2026 on a split-adjusted basis.
    Mitsui & Co., share information - shares issued and number of shareholders. — 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcOver the same three years Mitsui bought back ¥720 billion of shares and paid ¥879 billion of dividends, and its shares issued fell 12.8% between March 2022 and March 2026 on a split-adjusted basis.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsui & Co.'s reported figures. Resource share of profit: (253.6 + 164.2) / 834.0 = 50.1% (2026), 51.0% (2025), 58.0% (2024). Iron ore business share: 262.2 / 834.0 = 31.4%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 833,971 - 191,647 + 294,052 = 936,376; revenue 13,995.2 - 3,299.9 + 4,347.6 = 15,042.9; EPS 291.12 - 66.68 + 103.73 = 328.17. P/S at March year-ends: 5,340.8 / 11,757.6 = 0.45 (2022), 0.44 (2023), 0.80 (2024), 0.55 (2025), 16,969.0 / 13,995.2 = 1.21 (2026). Share price change since March: 5,033 / 5,959 - 1 = -15.5%. Shares issued, split-adjusted: 3,284.7 million (March 2022) to 2,864.7 million (March 2026) = -12.8%. Equity-method profit and dividend income: 447.4 + 178.7 = 626.1, 57.6% of profit before tax of 1,087.1. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral & Metal Resources 253.6 / 4,313.2 = 5.9%; Machinery & Infrastructure 225.9 / 4,427.3 = 5.1%; Energy 164.2 / 4,181.4 = 3.9%; Chemicals 67.5 / 2,241.8 = 3.0%; Lifestyle 52.0 / 3,091.1 = 1.7%; Innovation & Corporate Development 59.0 / 2,655.3 = 2.2%; Iron & Steel Products 18.9 / 862.4 = 2.2%. Innovation & Corporate Development including other and adjustments: 59.0 + 20.7 - 27.7 = 51.9 (2026), 87.3 - 42.8 + 21.5 = 65.9 (2025), 53.8 + 5.6 - 5.9 = 53.6 (2024). A $10 move in iron ore: 10 x ¥3.0 billion = ¥30 billion, 3.3% of the ¥920 billion forecast. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,785 / 3,490 = 2.52 times; dividend on cost 201 / 3,490 = 5.8%. Progress against guidance: 294.1 / 920.0 = 32.0%. Profit growth since the year to March 2016's loss: from -83.4 to 834.0. Resource profits: 335.1 + 281.7 = 616.8 (2024) and 253.6 + 164.2 = 417.8 (2026). Three largest segments: (253.6 + 225.9 + 164.2) / 841.1 = 76.5%. Energy Trading Singapore: 1,986,458 / 13,995,222 = 14.2%. First-quarter one-time gains: (44.2 + 10.2) / 294.1 = 18.5%. Innovation & Corporate Development first quarter against plan: 65.2 / 70.0 = 93%. Arctic LNG 2 provision change: 66,109 - 57,759 = 8,350. A $1 move in US gas: 10 x ¥1.2 billion = ¥12 billion. Vale dividend: 35.0 / 59.6 - 1 = -41%; 43.5 / 35.0 - 1 = +24%. Truck leasing holding: 19.8 / 28.4 - 1 = -30%; 18.8 / 19.8 - 1 = -5%. Profit to the 2029 target: 1,100 / 834.0 = 1.32; to the 2031 vision: 1,400 / 834.0 = 1.68. Berkshire value over cost 2.52 and dividend yield on cost 5.8%. Ministers North at full production: 7% x 20 Mt = 1.4 Mt. Mainstream charges: 15.1 + 15.9 + 28.05 = 59.05. Vale dividend fall against segment profit: (59.6 - 35.0) / 285.4 = 8.6%. Mitsui against smaller houses: profit 936.4 / 619.1 = 1.51 and 936.4 / 575.9 = 1.63; value 14.63 / 8.51 = 1.72 and 14.63 / 8.09 = 1.81. Trailing P/E: 14.63 trillion / 936.4 billion = 15.6; P/S 14.63 / 15.043 = 0.97. Dividend growth: 115 / 27.5 = 4.2 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsui & Co.'s results, integrated report, securities report and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedThe dividend per share rose from ¥27.5 in the year to March 2017 to ¥115 in 2026, and the new plan sets a floor of ¥140.
    Mitsui & Co., shareholder returns page - dividend and share buyback history. — 2014-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe dividend per share rose from ¥27.5 in the year to March 2017 to ¥115 in 2026, and the new plan sets a floor of ¥140.
    Mitsui & Co., notice of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029 - core operating cash flow of ¥1.2 trillion, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and ROE of 12%, and the dividend floor of ¥140. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedROE was 18.9% in the year to March 2023, 15.3% in 2024, 11.9% in 2025 and 10.2% in 2026.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - the five-year financial data: market capitalisation, PER, PBR, ROE, net debt, free cash flow, asset recycling and payout. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe company achieved an average of 12.5% over its last plan against a target of above 12%, and its new plan aims for 12% again by the year to March 2029.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThe company achieved an average of 12.5% over its last plan against a target of above 12%, and its new plan aims for 12% again by the year to March 2029.
    Mitsui & Co., notice of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029 - core operating cash flow of ¥1.2 trillion, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and ROE of 12%, and the dividend floor of ¥140. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedThe company's own measure of cash generation is core operating cash flow: ¥1,205.5 billion in the year to March 2023, ¥995.8 billion in 2024, ¥1,027.5 billion in 2025 and ¥978.9 billion in 2026.
    Mitsui & Co. Integrated Report 2026, data section - results by operating segment: gross profit, equity-method profit, dividend income, core operating cash flow and total assets. — FY to March 2022-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedIt totalled ¥3,002 billion over the last plan, and the company returned more than 53% of it to shareholders.
    Mitsui & Co., Medium-term Management Plan 2029 presentation - targets, the 2030 vision and the scorecard of MTMP2026. — FY to March 2027-2029 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  18. ReportedIt totalled ¥3,002 billion over the last plan, and the company returned more than 53% of it to shareholders.
    Mitsui & Co., Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, segment information, dividends, buybacks and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026