⚠ Tariffs Land on the Cost LineModerate threat

Applied Materials (AMAT) — threat to the moat

Applied sells 89% of its revenue abroad, so tariffs in either direction reach its margin first.

The gross margin Applied has built is exposed to trade policy in both directions. The 10-K notes that "the United States has announced changes to its trade policy, including increased tariffs on imports. These actions have caused substantial uncertainty"1. Almost all of Applied's long-lived assets are American, $5,071 million of $5,337 million2, while 89% of its revenue comes from abroad3, so tariffs on components coming in, and retaliation on machines going out, both touch it.

Revenue by location, FY2025 ($M)Outside the US 25,305 — 89%United States 3,063 — 11%Applied Materials Form 10-K FY2025
Nine dollars in ten come from outside the United States.

The company has kept expanding abroad regardless. Its new Tampines Campus in Singapore "more than doubles Applied’s advanced cleanroom capacity in Singapore"4.

So far the margin has kept rising, to 50.3% in the quarter to July 20265. A tariff increase that lands on imported parts would show up in cost of goods before it showed up anywhere else.

The same trade policy that raises costs can also move demand home. Applied's revenue from the United States was $1,367 million in the quarter to July 2026, against $683 million a year earlier6. Tariffs that encourage chipmakers to build in America help the machine business even as they cost the supply chain.

The check is simple: a quarter of falling gross margin while revenue is still rising would point to costs, such as tariffs, rather than to a weaker market.

References
  1. ReportedThese actions have caused substantial uncertainty".
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 26 October 2025) - Item 1A risk factors: competition, export controls, customer concentration, backlog and the EPIC Center. — FY2025 · publ. 12 December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAlmost all of Applied's long-lived assets are American, $5,071 million of $5,337 million, while 89% of its revenue comes from abroad, so tariffs on components coming in, and retaliation on machines going out, both touch it.
    Applied Materials Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 26 October 2025) - financial statements and notes: capital returns, debt, investments, tax and geography. — FY2025 · publ. 12 December 2025 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcAlmost all of Applied's long-lived assets are American, $5,071 million of $5,337 million, while 89% of its revenue comes from abroad, so tariffs on components coming in, and retaliation on machines going out, both touch it.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Applied Materials' reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment shares FY2025: Semiconductor Systems 20,798 / 28,368 = 73.3%; Applied Global Services 6,385 / 28,368 = 22.5%; Corporate and Other 1,185 / 28,368 = 4.2%. Segment operating margins FY2025: 7,379 / 20,798 = 35.5%; 1,792 / 6,385 = 28.1%; FY2024 6,981 / 19,911 = 35.1%, 1,812 / 6,225 = 29.1%; FY2023 6,879 / 19,698 = 34.9%, 1,529 / 5,732 = 26.7%. Q3 FY2026 margins: Semiconductor Systems 2,657 / 7,040 = 37.7%; Applied Global Services 536 / 1,781 = 30.1%; company operating margin 3,075 / 9,115 = 33.7%. Q1 FY2026 Semiconductor Systems 1,427 / 5,141 = 27.8%. Nine months FY2026 6,176 / 18,146 = 34.0% and 1,461 / 5,005 = 29.2%. Growth Q3 FY2026: Semiconductor Systems 7,040 / 5,564 - 1 = 26.5% year on year and 7,040 / 5,965 - 1 = 18.0% on the quarter; Applied Global Services 1,781 / 1,463 - 1 = 21.7%; revenue 9,115 / 7,910 - 1 = 15.2% on the quarter; United States revenue 1,367 / 683 - 1 = 100%; Europe 483 / 160 = 3.0 times. Nine months: 18,146 / 16,562 - 1 = 9.6%; 5,005 / 4,236 - 1 = 18.2%. Segment history, revenue: Semiconductor Systems 11,367 (FY2020), 16,286, 18,797, 19,698, 19,911, 20,798 (FY2025), compound growth (20,798 / 11,367)^(1/5) - 1 = 12.8% a year; Applied Global Services 4,155, 5,013, 5,543, 5,732, 6,225, 6,385, compound growth (6,385 / 4,155)^(1/5) - 1 = 9.0% a year, 6,385 / 5,732 - 1 = 11.4% over two years; Corporate and Other including Display 1,607 + 73 = 1,680 (FY2020), 1,634 + 130 = 1,764 (FY2021), 1,331 + 114 = 1,445 (FY2022), 868 + 219 = 1,087, 885 + 155 = 1,040, 1,185 (FY2025); 1,185 / 1,680 - 1 = -29%. Display operating margin 235 / 1,060 = 22% (FY2025) and 51 / 885 = 6% (FY2024). DRAM equipment 26% x 20,798 = about 5,400; flash 7% x 20,798 = about 1,460. Company margins: gross 13,808 / 28,368 = 48.7% (FY2025), 12,897 / 27,176 = 47.5% (FY2024), 12,384 / 26,517 = 46.7% (FY2023); operating 8,289 / 28,368 = 29.2%. R&D 3,570 / 28,368 = 12.6%; 3,570 / 1,451 = 2.5 times (FY2015-FY2025). Effective tax 2,273 / 9,271 = 24.5% (FY2025) and 975 / 8,152 = 12.0% (FY2024). Revenue FY2019 14,608 / 16,705 - 1 = -12.6%. Diluted shares 808 / 1,226 - 1 = -34%. Revenue outside the United States 25,305 / 28,368 = 89%. China share of revenue: 5,456 / 17,202 = 31.7% (FY2020); 7,535 / 23,063 = 32.7%; 7,254 / 25,785 = 28.1%; 7,247 / 26,517 = 27.3%; 10,117 / 27,176 = 37.2% (FY2024); 8,529 / 28,368 = 30.1% (FY2025). Taiwan 6,857 / 4,010 - 1 = 71%. Two largest customers 19% + 15% = 34% (FY2025) and 20% + 14% = 34% (nine months FY2026). Backlog: 15,002 / 19,011 - 1 = -21% (October 2022 to October 2025); Semiconductor Systems 7,105 / 12,691 - 1 = -44%; Applied Global Services 7,141 / 5,643 - 1 = +27%; shares of backlog 7,141 / 15,002 = 48% and 7,105 / 15,002 = 47%. Contract liabilities 3,271 / 2,566 - 1 = +27%; receivables 7,691 / 5,185 - 1 = +48%. Cash: net cash 7,241 + 1,332 - 100 - 6,455 = 2,018 (October 2025); 8,022 + 1,449 - 799 - 5,460 = 3,212 (October 2024); 7,037 + 2,196 - 1,299 - 5,245 = 2,689 (July 2026). Payout 1,384 / 6,998 = 19.8%; dividends plus buybacks 1,384 + 4,893 = 6,277, 6,277 / 7,958 = 79% of operating cash flow. ROE 6,998 / ((20,415 + 19,001) / 2) = 35.5% (FY2025), 40.6% (FY2024), 48.0% (FY2023). Trailing twelve months to July 2026: revenue 6,800 + 24,037 = 30,837; net income 1,897 + 7,370 = 9,267; operating cash flow 2,828 + 5,568 = 8,396; capital expenditure 785 + 1,988 = 2,773. Implied FY2026 revenue at the guidance midpoint 24,037 + 10,250 = 34,287, 34,287 / 28,368 - 1 = 20.9%; fourth-quarter midpoint 10,250 / 6,800 - 1 = 50.7%; implied non-GAAP EPS 8.73 + 4.02 = 12.75. Market: 376,360 / 9,267 = 40.6 times trailing earnings; 376,360 / 30,837 = 12.2 times sales; price 474.25 / 723.00 - 1 = -34.4%; Lam Research 384.36 - 376.36 = 8.00 bn more market value. ASML 662.45 / 376.36 = 1.8 times; KLA 246.05 / 376.36 = 0.65. Calendar year-end 2025 P/E 203,780 / 6,998 = 29.1; fiscal year-end P/E 40.91 / 11.83 = 3.5 times the FY2022 low. Other: services growth FY2025 6,385 / 6,225 - 1 = 2.6%; company revenue 28,368 / 27,176 - 1 = 4.4%; dividends 1,384 / 7,958 = 17.4% of operating cash flow; two largest customers FY2024 12% + 11% = 23%; Korea 1,521 / 1,160 - 1 = 31%; Semiconductor Systems 20,798 / 11,367 = 1.83 times (FY2020-FY2025); Display 1,060 / 1,607 - 1 = -34%; net income 6,998 / 1,377 = 5.1 times and EPS 8.66 / 1.12 = 7.7 times (FY2015-FY2025); revenue 28,368 / 9,659 = 2.9 times; balance sheet build July 2026 6,564 + 7,691 + 5,606 = 19,861; Display revenue excluded from Corporate and Other FY2025 1,185 - 1,060 = 125. Revenue FY2024 27,176 / 26,517 - 1 = 2.5%; R&D Q4 917 / 858 - 1 = 6.9%; revenue 30,837 / 25,785 - 1 = 19.6% (FY2022 to trailing July 2026); strategic investment gains 755 + 949 = 1,704; China less Taiwan nine months 6,688 - 5,902 = 786; forward earnings implied 40.91 / 26.95 = 1.52 times trailing; Q4 guide 10,250 / 9,115 - 1 = 12.5% above Q3. Memory share of systems revenue: DRAM plus flash 19% + 21% = 40% (FY2021), 17% + 6% = 23% (FY2023), 26% + 7% = 33% (FY2025). Market value 376,360 / 182,232 = 2.07 times the FY2025 year-end value; trailing net income 9,267 / 6,998 - 1 = 32%. Operating income 8,289 / 1,693 = 4.9 times (FY2015-FY2025). P/E gap to Lam 57.7 - 40.9 = 16.8. Q3 FY2026 returns 860 / 3,037 = 28% of operating cash flow. China plus Taiwan nine months (6,688 + 5,902) / 24,037 = 52%. Systems revenue Q1 to Q3 FY2026 7,040 / 5,141 - 1 = 37%. Systems share of segment operating income FY2025 7,379 / (7,379 + 1,792) = 7,379 / 9,171 = 80%. Systems R&D 3,042 / 20,798 = 14.6%. Third quarter share of nine-month systems profit 2,657 / 6,176 = 43%. Services FY2024 6,225 / 5,732 - 1 = 8.6%. Services share of backlog 4,335 / 11,758 = 37% (October 2021). Research per diluted share 1,451 / 1,226 = 1.18 (FY2015) and 3,570 / 808 = 4.42 (FY2025). Net cash plus long-term investments 2,689 + 5,268 = 7,957. Dividends per share 1.78 / 1.22 - 1 = 46%. ROE 35.5% / 10% = 3.5 times - geography, customers and backlog. — FY2015-FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Applied Materials' Forms 10-K and 10-Q, results releases and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedIts new Tampines Campus in Singapore "more than doubles Applied’s advanced cleanroom capacity in Singapore".
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - highlights, income statement, cash flow, quotes and fourth-quarter guidance. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedSo far the margin has kept rising, to 50.3% in the quarter to July 2026.
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - segment results and end-market mix. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedApplied's revenue from the United States was $1,367 million in the quarter to July 2026, against $683 million a year earlier.
    Applied Materials third-quarter fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - record revenue, segment results, revenue by geography, employees and fourth-quarter guidance - revenue by geography and employees. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026